LLEGA EL TURNO DEL TESORO

14029418-Ilustraci-n-de-cofre-del-tesoro-lleno-de-oro-Foto-de-archivo

 

 

Si bien se trató de una emisión de la semana pasada, el Tesoro seguramente mantendrá el mismo mecanismo para financiar el enorme déficit fiscal heredado. El organismo comandado por Alfonso Prat-Gay llevó adelante una emisión de Letes o Letras del Tesoro a 90 y 180 días en conjunto con un nuevo Bonac. Este último, nominado en pesos, pagará un interés variable que resultará del promedio de las tasas de Lebac (las letras del Banco Central) a 98 días licitadas durante el período de interés. Del lado de las Letes, se trata de instrumentos en dólares de corto plazo y con interés del 3,5% y 3,9% anual. La operatoria es similar a las Lebacs en pesos del Banco Central: cada Letes pagará US$ 1 (un dólar) en la fecha de vencimiento y el interés está implícito en el precio de la Letra (la de 98 días cortó a precio de US$ 0,99134, que implica un rendimiento implícito de 3% anual).

 

Si bien el interés puede parecer bajo respecto de otros bonos, se trata de un instrumento interesante para el ahorrista conservador ya que permite la suscripción en pesos al tipo de cambio promedio mayorista. Es decir que en vez de comprar dólares a $ 14,40 o $ 14,50 la Letes permite la suscripción a un tipo de cambio de $ 14,25. De modo que es una manera de ganarse el 1% directo respecto de la compra de dólar al banco y se obtiene un pequeño rendimiento adicional a costa de esperar 90 días.

 

En cuanto al panorama monetario local todavía no hay grandes definiciones. El Banco Central mantuvo la tasa de licitación en 37,5% anual el martes pero el jueves se conoció el dato de IPC de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires que marca una reducción significativa en la inflación “core”, es decir, el índice de precios medido sin servicios públicos. Es posible que la autoridad monetaria decida comenzar a reducir las tasas de interés para fin de mayo y dar comienzo a un nuevo paradigma de inversión. Por el momento todos los grandes inversores se encuentran “haciendo tasa” con los actuales niveles aunque se vislumbra un intento cada vez mayor de tomar posición en activos de mayor duración, preparándose para cuando toda la masa de pesos invertida en Lebacs se vuelque hacia otros activos.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 15.5.2016

 

La estabilización de la inflación y las cuentas públicas pueden implicar una apuesta atractiva a la última baja sensible de riesgo país que acerque los rendimientos de los títulos argentinos a niveles latinoamericanos­. Por caso, se debería esperar rendimientos que ronden el 6%/6,5% anual para los bonos más largos, teniendo una ganancia de capital apreciable respecto del casi 8% que rinden actualmente. En particular luce atractivo el provincial BPLD, el único bono que quedó con un rendimiento superior al 8,5% anual. Del lado de los soberanos la apuesta más razonable debería venir del lado de los bonos bajo legislación Nueva York del canje de deuda, ya que cotizan a niveles similares a los bonos de legislación local. Sin embargo, tanto por la legislación aplicable como por el volumen de emisión, aquellos serán los más demandados por fondos externos que busquen mayor rendimiento en mercados emergentes.

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