LAS OPCIONES CON GANANCIA PARA LOS TOMADORES. -la nota de la semana-

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El vencimiento de opciones que ocurrirá la próxima  semana condiciona las cotizaciones por cuanto fue un periodo de ganadores netos por parte de  los tomadores. De allí que no puede descartarse mayor tranquilidad en papeles lideres como  Bancos y ALUAR, SIDERAR y COMERCIAL DEL PLATA, la nueva estrella del firmamento bursátil, hasta que se cierren las posiciones . No ocurrirá lo mismo con las petroleras por cuanto les “pegó” fuerte la baja del precio del petróleo. Por el contrario, la tendencia a la recuperación del mismo hace que no sea mal negocio ponerle algunas “fichas” a PETROBRAS BRASIL, PESA, TENARIS, YPF y la otra sorpresa PETROLERA PAMPA. El mercado ya juega pensando en el 2016 y lo cierto es que los economistas de los candidatos posibles, incluso de SCIOLI a quien ya ven como “candidato oficial”, aseguran cambios en la orientación económica actual a efectos de revertir sus efectos negativos. La incógnita es saber si van a tener “muñeca” para negociar con la oposición al no tener mayoría propia. Un interés especial despiertan las trasportadoras y distribuidoras de gas, que al igual que, ocurrió con las eléctricas, el gobierno implementarla un subsidio especial por $2000 millones para compensar el mayor precio que pagaron por el gas que consumieron. Sorprendió gratamente la decisión de CONCESIONARIA DEL OESTE de distribuir 47% en efectivo entre utilidades y recuperación de Reservas Facultativas. Existe expectativas por su 1º trimestre en razón del incremento de tarifas autorizado. También fue positivo el  3º Trimestre de SEMINO al acumular utilidades por 8.8 millones (3.9 mill en 6 meses y perdidas por 1.4 mill en 3 meses). Las inundaciones del Río Paraná no produjeron daño directo por las inversiones realizadas para su preservación,  pero afectaron el normal funcionamiento. Se espera un buen Ejercicio Final aunque también hay que considerar a un vendedor de envergadura en esta plaza, que aun tendría posición  para liquidar.

Se destaparon , tal como se anticipó, Caputo y Holcim (ex Juan Minetti). Ambas con buenos balances, precios retrasados y muy buenas perspectivas.

Héctor Tavares

2.819 comentarios

  1. Gonzalo

    Hector hay una especie que se llama Capex con muy buenos numeros, rezagada en su cotización y en franca recuperación. La ubicas? Abrazo

  2. Jesús González

    Lo de Oeste es sencillamente MARAVILLOSO , es la empresa que mas dividendos paga en función de su precio de mercado ; Pero no entiendo porque halaga tanto a Semino que tiene exiguas ganancias en relación a su Cap. social y ademas esta cotizando un 75% arriba de su valor libro cuando Agro por comparar dentro del campo con
    un P/E parecido cotiza por debajo del mismo. Para mi Semino esta Cara y tiene potencial para bajar.

  3. CHORI TRADER

    Hola a todos, claramente esta 1er. semana de abril fue para las PETROLERAS, tal como se esperaba llegó su turno, a subirse que queda tiempo.
    El 2015 comenzó con fuertes subas del sector ELECTRICO, luego paso por los BANCOS y ahora las PETROLERAS.
    Las ELECTRICAS sufrieron una corrección y los BANCOS también, toma de ganancia dicen. Ahora se viene la corrida de las PETROLERAS, creo que va a tener cuerda.
    Luego que se viene? a mi entender quedan las METALURGICAS y por sobre todo las AGROALIMENTICIAS, este ultimo sector postergado, entiendo que es el próximo tren a subirse.
    Por otro lado LOS BONOS AA17 y RO15 ya están pagando billetitos verdes de sus amortizaciones, eso nos pone contento, y en este punto no debemos pasar la gran oportunidad de COMPRAR DOLAR AHORRO, ya que esta baratito, asi que aprovechemos de hacernos de esta moneda, que a estos valores es una verdadera ganga

  4. jose tangari

    Porque es una ganga el dolar? la economia de eeuu no parece tan firme como parece. por algo la fed no sube tasas

  5. htavares

    De IRSA, no me gusta el grupo. Agro puede tener un buen año pero el primer trimestre vendrá con pérdidas. Paty todavía no muestra nada en los balances pero es una acción de futuro por el rubro que está mejorando y por su posición en el mercado. Semino no creo que esté cara pero tiene la contra de un gran vendedor que se fue de la empresa. Coincido con la apreciación sobre Oeste. A Capex no la sigue pero prometo ocuparme. De Astra no hablo y tampoco de Bernardín.

  6. juan

    Coincido con Hector respecto a Paty. Empieza su juego en el 2016. En mi opinión, si sobran unos pesos, el vuelto, yo no dudo en meter a Paty. Apuesto a futuro a esta empresa. Los balances siguen mostrando pérdidas y la coyuntura macro de este país lo hace estar en esta situación.

    Pero es líder indiscutido en el mkdo local y exporta asi que tiene todos los condimentos para salir cuando las cosas se normalicen un poco.

  7. gabriel

    Sr Tavares , dado que Come en Zurich cotiza cerca del 50% menos que en BsAs, conviene comprar afuera entendiendo que si la empresa sigue bien las cotozaciones se emparejarian. Gracias. Antiguamente Zurich cotizaba alrededor de un 10% menos que en BsAs.

  8. Alejandro

    Hecor y que se puede decir de CECO ??? saneado su pasivo y recibiendo subsidios de CAMMESA. gracias abrazo, y el GRUPO IRSA tampoco me gusta, coincido con vos.

  9. Martin

    Le consulto al señor Tavares, hombre de una larga trayectoria en este tema. Si las energeticas estan fundidas, los bancos ganaron, pero con mucha lebac sin respaldo, el petroleo sigue bajo, las exportadoras tienen un tipo de cambio atrasadisimo, la economia en fuerte recesion, contado con liquidacion es mala palabra. De parte de los bonos el default esta cada ves mas cerca de ser total. Porque la bolsa sube y sube y hay tanto optimismo? Todas las encuestas lo dan ganador a Scioli. que si bien hara cambios, no creo que sean tan radicales como espera el mercado. No veo un ajuste de tarifas del 200%, una devaluacion del 200%, un petroleo de u$s110, un arreglo inmediato con los fondos bruitres. En mi opinion veo cambios moderados, en el sentido que espera el mercado, pero moderados y paulatinos. Sin embargo las cotizaciones de varias acciones, tienen subas espectaculares desde 2013 que no se condicen con la realidad. La verdad no entiendo el porque de tanto optimismo. En Diciembre era todo negro, el merval cayo abruptamente a 7500 puntos. Hoy recuperando casi en 12.000. Que cambio? que me lo perdi. Hoy aunque la bolsa esta muy lejos de ser una timba, pareciera serlo. Me interesaria escuchar su opinion. Gracias y muy buena la pagina

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