LAS BOLSAS EN SU LABERINTO-la nota de la semana-

 

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Los mercados del mundo están efectuando una lógica corrección (toma de ganancias) luego de un recorrido positivo anticipándose en demasía a lo esperado de la futura evolución económica.  Pero a no  preocuparse   porque la tendencia de fondo es positiva. Una demostración es la recuperación del petróleo y otras “commodities”, no solo por mayor demanda, sino también por un freno del “súper dólar” que favorece a los países emergentes, pero también a la propia economía de EE.UU. El nuevo conflicto en YEMEN altera las condiciones de los mercados por lo que se deberá estar atento a su evolución. Esta novedad posibilita las “compras de oportunidad”.

El mercado argentino no escapa a las “generales de la ley” y asume el impacto en plena corrección de precios por lo que es esperable una exageración. En este aspecto conviene recordar que se esta en una etapa previa a un cambio de Gobierno y que los principales candidatos prometen regularizar negativas decisiones como el “cepo cambiario”. Esta decisión es impensable sin un creíble plan económico y la corrección de otras variables, más una devaluación del peso argentino. Ante esa tesitura se fortalecerán las exportadoras ALUAR, MOLINOS RIO, SIDERAR, SAN MIGUEL y la inversora CONSULTATIO. La firmeza que demostró PESA con una Bolsa “en baja” mereció diversos comentarios de los analistas. Se sostiene que después del “Petrólao” la gestión será absolutamente clara y transparente, desapareciendo la desconfianza sobre sus operaciones. Por otro lado, las razones que provoca su caída hoy le juegan a  favor. En efecto, en el ultimo trimestre contabilizó una pérdida de mas de 1000 millones por haber devaluado sus inversiones en el exterior en razón del  nuevo precio del petróleo. La recuperación del precio del petróleo ahora le produce una “Reserva oculta”.  Al mismo tiempo afectó su cotización la salida del “panel Merval” al que puede volver en cualquier momento por el incremento de sus operaciones. Es cuestión de esperar. La acreditación del 17% en acciones tomó a SEMINO en pleno ascenso y sus accionistas ni “lerdos ni perezosos” tomaron sus ganancias presionando la plaza. Se debe recordar que a principios de  abril presentará su 3º trimestre, que se espera positivo por cuanto acopió su principal insumo (trigo) a precios bajos, sin que se refleje en los productos finales farináceos.

Es de manual que luego de una suba importante, ante una duda los ganadores apresuren ventas. También es de manual que un esbozo de recuperación inmediata se vea frustrada con nuevas ventas. Lo aconsejable es tomar posiciones en especies con “fundamentals”, de “a poco” y “hacia abajo”.

 

 

 

3.548 comentarios

  1. Mat

    Tuve una muy mala experiencia en Octubre, me temo que estamos a las puertas de una corrección profunda si el Merval no defiende los 11000. Hubieron “inversores” que caucionaron hasta a la madre para entrar el mes pasado. De la experiencia se aprende. Saludos Héctor.

  2. Gaston

    Falto mencionar a Quickfood para completar la lista de rutina. Parece que el mercado se reduce siempre a las mismas especies. Hay otras que a pesar de su buen andar están en la lista negra. O, si prefieren, fuera de la cartera.

  3. htavares

    Estimado Gastón: Equivocado o no, en general se recomienda lo que se piensa y lo que se tiene. Abrazo

  4. Jose

    Hector Consultatio esta pesada como barrilete de plomo. A pesar de los excelentes balances no tomo respiro. La ves subiendo o esta muy manipulada?

  5. javier aguirre

    Sr Héctor Tavares dos consultas : ¿Por qué se desplomo tanto Banco Patagonia? ¿Qué opina de Ferrum?

    Gracias , nos vemos, Javier

  6. pablo

    Hola José, acerca de CTIO, Héctor había comentado esto: “Ctio baja porque hay un gran vendedor. Pero ese vendedor era grande también cuando vendía en $11 y se equivocó como se equivoca ahora”

  7. Tavares
    Author

    Creo que el vendedor de Consultatio no lo hace por cambiar de papel sino por un tema puntual. Como todo, el mercado se encargará de poner las cosas en su lugar. Me sorprendió la baja de Bpat pero fue producto de una gran suba previa. Hoy se recuperó bien. Ferrum me gusta mucho pero el grupo de control no se destaca por su generosidad con los minoristas.

  8. josetangari

    Q queres decir con que el grupo de control de Ferrum” no se destaca por su generosidad con los minoristas”?

  9. lemagiscien

    Me considero un entusiasta de SAMI. Sin embargo las últimas inclemencias del tiempo en Tucumán, las tremendas inundaciones han puesto en jaque la cosecha actual. Es lamentable que la empresa no facilite información sobre estas cuestiones. SAMI probablemente tendrá un 1ª T muy tranquilo en resultados. A mi juicio, hay que volver a pensarla para más adelante en el camino de los resultados electorales. Entre tanto hay papeles muy líquidos que dan oportunidad para entrarles a medida en que el achique sea mayor. Saludos

  10. htavares

    Sobre el grupo de control de Ferrum quiero decir que es muy serio y conservador. No esperes dividendos estrambóticos. Lo de Estados Unidos sale me parece rápido y es muy bueno para SAMI. La veo firme pese a que subió bastante.

  11. josetangari

    El año pasado ferrum dio un dividendo muy grande en acciones y este año ganó 85 millones en 6 meses, cuando en todo el ejercicio anterior ganó 122.

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  206. Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  335. Hey this is kind of of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding experience so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

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  343. Hi! I understand this is kind of off-topic however I needed to ask. Does operating a well-established website such as yours take a large amount of work? I’m brand new to operating a blog but I do write in my journal daily. I’d like to start a blog so I can share my own experience and views online. Please let me know if you have any recommendations or tips for new aspiring blog owners. Appreciate it!

  344. I don’t know whether it’s just me or if perhaps everyone else experiencing problems with your blog. It appears as though some of the written text within your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This might be a issue with my web browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Thanks

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  349. With havin so much content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My site has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it seems a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my permission. Do you know any solutions to help protect against content from being ripped off? I’d truly appreciate it.

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  366. With havin so much written content do you ever run into any issues of plagorism or copyright violation? My site has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it seems a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my agreement. Do you know any solutions to help reduce content from being ripped off? I’d truly appreciate it.

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