LA VIDA DESPUES DEL DEFAULT

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Tras la maratónica sesión del miércoles del Senado, el gobierno logró el OK legal para ir adelante con la emisión de deuda necesaria para cerrar definitivamente el “default”. Al gobierno le resta salir a tomar USD 10.000 millones en el mercado internacional para pagarle a los fondos buitre y el resto de los “holdouts” y de ese modo cerrar el capítulo iniciado en diciembre del 2001 por el presidente interino Adolfo Rodríguez Saá. El mercado descuenta que el acuerdo será cerrado a la brevedad y abriría un nuevo capítulo para la inserción de Argentina en el mundo, principalmente desde lo financiero.

Para los bonistas, concretar el acuerdo tendría una implicancia directa en aquellos tenedores de bonos con legislación Nueva York. Existen 3 bonos que tienen intereses pendientes de cobro: el Global 2017 (GJ17), el Discount (DICY) y el Par (PARY). Además están los bonos en euros, pero no tienen mucha liquidez localmente. La gran pregunta del mercado quién recibirá los cupones pendientes una vez que se destraben los cobros. Por supuesto que no cabe ninguna duda de que el bonista que tiene los títulos en su poder desde el 30/06/2014 recibirá las cobranzas adeudadas. Sin embargo hay discusión respecto a los que realizaron compras y ventas en el medio.

La polémica la instaló la sociedad depositaria Caja de Valores, quien en su momento realizó los cortes de cupón de cada bono y asegura que cada tenedor a ese momento recibirá el cupón correspondiente. Por el contrario, en el exterior los títulos cotizan “cargados”: el comprador de hoy recibiría todos los cupones atrasados. El mercado local también dio su veredicto: intuye que Caja de Valores deberá plegarse a lo que sentencie el Bank of New York (BoNY), ya que es quien cursa los pagos en primer lugar de los fondos que recibe del Tesoro Nacional. Si el comprador de bolsa de Global 2017 no recibiera los cupones atrasados, estaría pagando más dólares de los que va a recibir. En el caso del DICY, habría pagado un precio mucho más caro que su semejante DICA.

Párrafo aparte merece la situación del PARY. Este título cotiza a un precio inferior que el PARA, a pesar de que podría incluir cupones pendientes (esto no es algo certero) y se trata de un título que con legislación norteamericana que históricamente cotizó más caro que el ley argentina. Hay que considerar igualmente que el bono paga intereses muy bajos (tiene 5 dólares pendientes acumulados por cada 100 títulos), pero el precio actual es interesante para cambiar PARA por PARY, ya que en el peor escenario de no recibir nada de los cupones pendientes se estaría comprando a un precio más barato que el comparable de legislación nacional.

Tampoco representaría un problema que se demore el acuerdo con los fondos buitre, ya que el bono recién volvería a pagar el 30 de septiembre próximo, cuando para entonces ya debería estar cerrado el conflicto. Por otro lado, los que hayan comprado GJ17 o DICY desde el 31/12/2014 en adelante deben estar atentos a los cupones pendientes de cobro, en especial si los bonos se compraron dando por sentado que se iban a percibir.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 3.4.2016

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