LA SUBA DE TASAS DE TODOS LOS AÑO

 

 

 

descarga (11)Historia repetida. Al aproximarse fin de año, los préstamos a altas tasas pero por pocos días son moneda corriente en compañías y bancos. Muchos quieren salir en los balances mostrando liquidez, otros realizan grandes gastos vinculados a eventos, honorarios, dividendos o bonificaciones y necesitan financiarse en el cortísimo plazo, inclusive por un día, para cumplir con las exigencias de caja. Es habitual para la época que suba con fuerza, como comenzó a ocurrir, el “call” interbancario. Se trata de los préstamos de cortísimo plazo que se realizan entre sí las entidades financieras.

La tasa de interés que los bancos pagan a sus clientes por los depósitos a plazo fijo siempre se mantuvo bastante debajo de la inflación especialmente en los últimos 8 años. La tasa Badlar es un promedio de las tasas que pagan los bancos privados por depósitos grandes a 30 días y es la tasa variable de referencia del mercado de capitales. El Banco Central tiene herramientas de política monetaria para afectar esta variable, que son la emisión de deuda del propio organismo (Lebacs) que colocan a las instituciones bancarias. Los bancos usualmente compiten por los depósitos y el excedente lo colocan en Lebacs. En la época de Marcó del Pont esta tasa de las Lebacs era muy baja y por ello los bancos pagaban poco por los depósitos.

Sin embargo, la recesión hizo que los bancos contraigan el crédito y ahora la tasa de las Lebacs es un techo para ellos. Con las tasas mínimas impuestas por Alejandro Vanoli, el actual titular del Central, los bancos sólo toman depósitos mayoristas para colocarlos en Lebacs y por ello la tasa Badlar se mantiene en 20% anual desde hace varios meses. Eso llevó a que los bonos que pagan Badlar tengan un rendimiento adicional de 6% por encima de dicha tasa. El rendimiento es bajo en comparación con otros títulos, pero no hay que olvidar que la tasa Badlar es una tasa variable.

La suba estacional de tasas de interés aún no se ha contagiado a los depósitos mayoristas. Es de esperar que los bancos paguen algo más por los depósitos para mantener posiciones de liquidez para fin de año y para la demanda de las empresas, aunque no es un dato certero. De todas maneras, se trata de una alternativa para aquellos inversores más conservadores que quieran escapar un poco de la volatilidad del dólar y mantenerse cubiertos en tasa de interés. Durante los últimos 4 años la tasa ha perdido con creces en relación con el dólar, pero no hay que olvidarse que la administración entrante en 2015 puede llegar a hacer subir las tasas de interés a niveles cercanos a la inflación.

Actualmente, el bono que muestra un mayor rendimiento es el AM17, aunque no es de los más fáciles de conseguir. Los bonos más cortos como el AS15 y el PR14 también tienen rendimientos altos en la curva, pero éstos probablemente no vean una suba de tasas. Para aquellos que desean mantener la inversión a mayor plazo, el PR15 es un título largo que se vería muy beneficiado cuando la tasa de interés se asemeje a la inflación.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 21.12.2014

 

 

 

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