LA SALIDA DEL “DESENDEUDAMIENTO” ENTONO A LA BOLSA-la nota de la semana-

 

 

 

descarga (11)Paradójicamente, la salida del “desendeudamiento” entono la Bolsa, no obstante su elevado costo y las dudas sobre si representa un ingreso genuino de  divisas o predomina la reinversión de las ultimas rentas recibidas, de plazos fijos preexistente, o de distintas inversiones de Bancos, Cia de Seguros o  Instituciones oficiales, lo que significaría un efecto bastante neutro. Lo cierto es que alienta a YPF a intentar endeudarse, y fundamentalmente asegura alguna tranquilidad hasta fin de año. En el comportamiento del mercado, también influyó la liquidez existente ya que los que habían vendido lotes luego ejercidos, estaban con capitales listas para reingresar a la Bolsa.

Asimismo, contribuyo el hecho de haberse conocido nuevas encuestas políticas considerando un  eventual“balotage”.  La idea del cambio predomina en  la inversión bursátil. El sector bancario encabezó la suba destacándose BANCO PATAGONIA que extrañamente había bajado a $23,  Cuando promete distribuir 146% en efectivo.Le siguió el petrolero orillando los u$s 58 el barril, favorecido además por el sinceramiento del Balance de Petrobras Brasil, por la utilidad de 670 millones que contabilizara en el 1º trimestre PESA por la venta de sus inversiones en Santa Cruz y por los nuevos convenios de YPF con Rusia y el acceso al crédito. A partir de allí, el derrame es inevitable. La firmeza de AUSOL y OESTE tienen que ver con las posibilidades que le otorgan las nuevas tarifas a partir de Enero 2015. OESTE acaba de distribuir 47% en efectivo, quedando a un precio tentador. La firmeza de HOLCIM ( Ex Minetti) esta relacionada con los indicadores de la construcción de marzo ( +1.3%) y con los despachos de cemento (+7.2%). Asimismo, su actual capitalización bursátil, por un lado representa todavía un PER alto. Por otro, es un valor irrisorio respecto a la envergadura de la empresa. Consecuentemente, es de manual que se esperan mejores balances ahora sin el lastre de la fuerte multa que soportó en el pasado. Otra con capitalización irrisoria es Colorín, que parece retomar por encima de las $20, a la espera de su tentadora suscripción.

Héctor Tavares

4.168 comentarios

  1. CHORI TRADER

    Hola a todos, cuando la semana pasada afinabamos el lápiz presagiando que las subas de las PETROLERAS se agotaban y que el resto de las acciones continuaban su corrección, un COMBO OPTIMISTA conformado por medidas económicas del GOBIERNO, como fue la exitosa colocación de Kicilof con BONAR 24 con tasas de 1 dígito y su lógica e inmediata repercusión en los ADRs, sumado al resultado electoral obtenido por la OPOSICION en las PASO de Santa Fé y Mendoza, lograron cambiar los vientos pesimistas y no solo continuaron subiendo a paso firme las Acciones del SECTOR PETROLERO, sino también mermaron su caída LAS ELECTRICAS y de LOS BANCOS en menor medida.

    Así, el MERCADO FINANCIERO, ni mas ni menos LA BOLSA, fue el SALVAVIDAS de la economía, guste o no, es el medio -a mano-, que junto al DOLAR AHORRO y al Plan AHORA12 permitirán, cada uno en su medida, que siga flotando y flotando al menos hasta fin de año, pero ojo, los Buitres, el desequilibrio fiscal y el retraso cambiario pueden desatar una diarrea impiadosa.

    Por ello, no queda otra que tener POLENTA para saber esperar y ser PACIENTES hasta saber si cambió o no la tendencia, ahí esta la clave.

    A José Tangari y a Rodo, los felicito por CAPU y por sus COME. Pero les pregunto. Cuantas hubo así? igual les agradezco a ambos y concuerdo con vos Billi, respecto al condicionamiento de las PETRO por el precio del barril, pero muchas veces NO depende de eso solo, sin ir mas lejos anda a los ejemplos de YPF hace un par de años y APBR apenas unos meses atrás

    CHORI TRADER

  2. horacio garetto

    ¿Banco Patagonia pagaré un dividendo del 46% de qué?
    Como se debe interpretar esa frase?
    Se refiere al 46% de las ganancias acumuladas y sin distribuir?

  3. daniel

    hector si tiene algo entre sus manos (me refiero a colorin) esperamos su opinion , por ahi lei que ya autorizaron la
    suscripcion pendiente , aprovecho para felicitarlo, una pagina web referente para el ambiente bursatil..!!!

  4. Martin

    “La idea del cambio alienta a la bolsa” estoy 100% de acuerdo. El unico problema que veo a Scioli como ganador y no creo que haga los grandes cambios que el mercado espera. A Macri (candidato del mercado) no lo veo figurar, salvo para algunos medios. No es que este en contra de Macri, me haria ganar mucho dinero si ganara las elecciones, realmente la bolsa subiria muchisimo y rapido, ya lo vimos en Brasil, pero Aecio tenia un caudal de votos muy superior a los de Macri. Finalmente gano Dilma y la historia fue otra. Habra venido algo de ese dinero a la bolsa Argentina? Se esta ganando buen dinero en la bolsa Argentina, la verdad imposible quejarse. La pregunta es hasta cuando sigue la fiesta?

  5. Martin

    A COME y CAPU me las perdi. Deberia hacerle mas caso a esta pagina. Las 2 fueron anunciadas claramente por aca.

  6. Tavares
    Author

    Horacio: Ese dividendo en efectivo lo anunció BPAT cuando presentó su cuarto trimestre. En realidad el efectivo es 146%. Fue un error y lo estamos corrigiendo
    Colorín sigue regalada con referencia a su capitalización bursátil. Tiene un excelente grupo de control. Y está recuperando

  7. Juan

    Héctor:

    Cuando se paga en dividendo en efectivo de BPAT y el de OESTE?

    Muy interesantes todas sus notas.

    Saludos y gracias!

  8. jose

    Yo me inclino como lo hice hace 3 años por las regaladas que me dieron las mayores ganancias en 30 años y con futuro,ej,.TRANS-CECO.TGN, LES AGREGO SEMI Y SID.suerte a todos.

  9. Tavares
    Author

    Banco Patagonia todavía no se sabe Juan. Oeste paga mañana, cortó cupón el jueves y se acreditan los fondos en la semana

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