LA PRIMACIA DEL DOLAR

 

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OTRAS INTERESANTES ALTERNATIVAS DE INVERSION

Desde que recrudeció el conflicto con los fondos buitre, los bonistas prácticamente se centraron en los títulos nacionales y provinciales en dólares como inversión. Los bonos que pagan en pesos han quedado confinados a los inversores institucionales, como bancos, cajas, fondos comunes de inversión, etc. Ocurre que el deterioro de las cuentas públicas y la imposibilidad de Argentina de acceder a los mercados internacionales de crédito mantienen los rendimientos de los títulos en dólares y euros en niveles altísimos. No solamente en bonos sino en cualquier instrumento de inversión se hace difícil competir contra un título que rinde más del 13% anual en dólares completamente libre de impuestos.

Sin embargo, más allá de la siempre sana diversificación, los otros bonos también son alternativas interesantes con menor riesgo que los títulos en dólares. Si bien, por extraño que parezca, continúa siendo muy improbable un default de sus bonos por parte del Estado, las inversiones en pesos dan más previsibilidad e incluso continúan manteniendo buenas perspectivas a futuro. Dentro de las inversiones en pesos tenemos los títulos que ajustan por CER (vinculado al IPC del Indec), los títulos que pagan tasa Badlar (la tasa promedio que pagan los bancos privados por plazos fijo superiores al millón de pesos) y los títulos que pagan en pesos al tipo de cambio oficial. Estos últimos son todos provinciales y de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

Los que ajustan por CER y los dólar-link, son una interesante vía de diversificación del riesgo del dólar y además mantienen buenas perspectivas en el mediano plazo por diferentes razones. En el mercado se espera que con el cambio de administración a fines del 2015 se comiencen a normalizar ciertas cuestiones financieras del país, tales como las estadísticas del INDEC como también el denominado cepo cambiario. En caso de haber libre acceso al mercado de cambios, es evidente que los instrumentos vinculados al dólar oficial (hoy una entelequia para el ahorrista) serán muy demandados porque pasarían a ser títulos realmente equivalentes al dólar. Los títulos se compran con pesos al cambio oficial y, pasado el 2015, ello podría ser una equivalencia a cobrar en dólares.

Por otro lado los bonos con CER rinden aproximadamente 10% anual además del ajuste por inflación oficial. De más está decir que una normalización de las estadísticas encarecería mucho estos bonos, ya que un 10% de rendimiento en términos reales para una inversión financiera es una exageración en cualquier país. Durante el 2015 seguramente se verá mucho movimiento en estos bonos en función del candidato que mejor se posicione para la presidencia.

Más allá de eso, también es importante recordar que los rendimientos de los títulos cortos en dólares son superiores a cualquier otro tipo de bono en estos momentos. Tienen un riesgo asociado a las cuentas públicas, pero de momento es muy acotado y se disiparía completamente si se resolviera el entuerto  con los fondos buitre.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 21.9.2014

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