LA NOTA DE LA SEMANA. ¿MÁS AIRE A LAS EXPORTADORAS?

 

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PENSANDO EN LAS PETROLERAS Y EN LAS EXPORTADORAS POR SU FUERTE DESACTUALIZACION DE LAS ULTIMAS RUEDAS

 

La tranquilidad obtenida en el “dólar blue”  se asemeja a un “Triunfo a lo PIRRO”, por cuanto se logra con extremos controles, con postergación de pagos de importadores, con obligación de venta de exportadores, Bancos y Cías de seguro, con emisión de “dólar linked” que compromete a gobiernos futuros, con fomento de la especulación vendiendo “dólar ahorro” que se vuelca al mercado informal, con suspensión de financiación a productores agrícolas, etc. Todas medidas no sustentables en el tiempo que conducen a una seria “stagflation” y una falta de competitividad industrial. De continuar esta política el retraso cambiario se acentuaría y la salida sería explosiva.  De allí que no pocos analistas intuyen una solución con los “holdouts” en 2015 que atenuaría tal retraso con el  ingreso genuino de divisas vía financiación y/o inversión. Por otra parte, recientes declaraciones del presidente del Banco Central, desmintiendo una devaluación pero admitiendo ajustes en el tipo de cambio, mejoraron el mercado de las exportadoras a partir del último jueves.

De ser así, la perspectiva de la inversión bursátil se verá muy favorable. No debe llamar a engaño la baja del precio del petróleo por cuanto de acuerdo a analistas responsables se debe a la primera reacción ante la autosuficiencia petrolera de EE. UU y la desaceleración económica de CHINA, JAPON Y EUROPA. Las inversiones petroleras tienen un horizonte a mediano plazo por lo que no se modificarán las políticas empresarias, especialmente si se piensa que la baja obedece a una sobre reacción coyuntural. En esa tesitura se debe prestar atención a PETROBRAS BRASIL que adicionalmente debió soportar denuncias de corrupción y sanciones que afectaron su cotización, pero que aseguran mayores y mejores controles a futuro. La designación en Brasil, de un Gabinete pro-empresas imprimirá un sesgo positivo a la Bolsa y fortalecimiento del real.

En otro orden, debe señalarse como muy positiva la evolución de CENTRAL PUERTO.  En 9 meses en relación con igual periodo anterior ganó 294,1 millones (35,2 millones en 2013) con Capital de 88,5 millones. Posee además, Reservas Facultativas por 724 millones y Reservas Especiales por 177,2 millones.

El panel general quedó muy desactualizado respecto del líder. Especialmente los bancos cotizantes, Patagonia y Santander Río. Cía Importadora y Exportadora de la Patagonia está con precios para aprovechar ante la oferta de “la chapa”.

HÉCTOR TAVARES

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