La nota de la semana: EN UN MERCADO DE ACUMULACION, EL PETRÓLEO CERCA DE SU PUNTO DE INFLEXION

 compra acciones

 

 

 

La no aplicación del Impuesto a las Ganancias para aguinaldo alivia “la mesa navideña” de los trabajadores, desarma reclamos políticos, pero no mueve el amperímetro de la economía de la Argentina. La expectativa central esta en la solución a dar al tema “holdouts”, en la que no pocos analistas intuyen que será similar al impuesto sobre aguinaldos: se negará enfáticamente para arreglar finalmente, no sin antes pergeñar una buena cosmética para su justificación.  Hoy ya se asume que no se pagarán más de u$s 10.000 millones. También se malicia que aparecerá un comprador de “ultima instancia” que tendrá su compensación.

Adquiere importancia la “batalla del  petróleo” por su incidencia en la economía argentina. Por un lado, en lo inmediato se beneficia con un  menor costo de importación. En cuanto al perjuicio que ocasiona al desarrollo de Vaca Muerta,  es  relativo, por cuanto la inversión petrolera se programa a mayor tiempo. Por otra parte, si bien beneficia a la economía mundial, son demasiados los países que se ven seriamente afectados por la continuación del derrape de su precio. De allí, que se estima una Pronta inflexión para situarse en niéveles intermedios. Rusia hará su parte para que se cumpla con esta hipótesis.

La Bolsa está errática pero optimista por sus activos depreciados y por la posibilidad de un 2015 menos dramático del previsto.

La debilidad de las petroleras ( YPF, PESA, TENARIS, PETROBRAS) así como contribuyeron a la caída de precios, también encabezarán la reacción cuando el petróleo adquiera precios de equilibrio. En menor medida también están incluidas, CAPEX, PETROLERA PAMPA y COMERCIAL DEL PLATA (C.G.C). Es una incógnita la incidencia en las Empresas consumidoras de  petróleo y gas por cuanto en el mercado local esta reducción de precio no se ha reflejado y, “gracias” a YPF se duda que ocurra. Los volúmenes negociados en acciones son aceptables en función de las diversas incógnitas existentes, lo que demuestra un mercado de acumulación.

5.549 comentarios

  1. Alberto Fernández

    De acuerdo con el punto de inflexión del petróleo. Otra, el IECO sin Ud. no existe. Dejé de comprar el Diario. Me pasé a Perfil

  2. Fede

    Los bancos muestran que se empezo A PRAICEAR PATA “ACOMODAR” A PRECIOS RELATIVOS DE LA REGION, SE COMIENZA A DESCONTAR EL ARREGLO, COMENZANDO POR LOS BANCOS.
    EN CUANTO A PETROLEO, RUSIA TENDRA MAS FUERZA QUE ARABIA ?

    MUY BUENA LA COLUMNAAAA

  3. Es muy importante que el precio del petroleo busque un precio de equilibrio que sea beneficiario para todos.
    Probablemente alrededor de 70-80 el barril.
    PBR es dificil de analizar, dados los problemas politicios, de corrupcion y la compleja ecuacion beneficio/costo de su produccion. En este momento una baja del petroleo la beneficia, pero en el largo plazo no.
    HF

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