LA LUCHA ENTRE EL DOLAR Y LA TASA

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El Gobierno hace todo lo necesario para llegar a fin de año con el dólar controlado, y lo va logrando. Viene colocando con cierto éxito instrumentos en pesos que inciten al ahorrista a desechar, más no sea por el momento, la compra de dólares. Para ello colocó este jueves bonos del Tesoro Nacional (BONAC) y lo hizo endeudándose a una tasa del 27% anual.

Junto con las anteriores emisiones que hubo este año, el monto en circulación ascenderá ya a cerca de $ 20.000 millones, que garantiza en parte buena liquidez para comprar y vender. Se trata de tres series de bonos que vencen en marzo, mayo y septiembre del 2016 y pagarán trimestralmente un interés equivalente a la tasa de licitación de Lebacs a 90 días. Actualmente esa tasa es del 26% anual.

Lo interesante de la colocación es que constituye una mejor alternativa que el tradicional plazo fijo, al menos con el panorama financiero actual.

Sin embargo, la consulta de la hora no es para el mes que viene ni para el otro, sino para cuando se acerque fin de año. ¿Qué ocurrirá con el dólar para cuando asuma el nuevo gobierno en diciembre?

Ya es muy evidente que quien lo haga, del signo político que sea, heredará una pesada carga: alta inflación y retraso cambiario (y tarifario), dos anomalías que requieren remedios contrapuestos, que entran en conflicto entre sí.

Por tanto ¿habrá política gradualista o de shock? Para muchos la política de shock que aplicó Juan Carlos Fábrega fracasó, pero lo cierto es que no fue acompañada desde Economía con todo lo que se requiere para que un salto cambiario no se traslade a precios. Y también puede decirse que gradualismo es lo que se está queriendo aplicar ahora y tampoco anda del todo bien: se acumula creciente presión cambiaria y tarifaria y no se termina de salir de un esquema recesivo.

Como sea, el actual tipo de cambio está generando un daño importante al tejido productivo nacional –en particular a las economías regionales- y más tarde o más temprano habrá que ir hacia un nivel más alto, como de hecho lo están haciendo ya todas las economías: desde Europa hasta Brasil y otros latinoamericanos, todos están devaluando su moneda.

Por ello, a medida que se aproxime fin de año, y probablemente mucho antes, nadie va a querer tener su cartera desdolarizada.

El mercado bursátil ofrece distintas oportunidades de cobertura cambiaria para el inversor y también alternativas para hacerse de dólares para el ahorrista. El Boden 2015 es un título que en octubre pagará a cada tenedor USD 103,50 y en bolsa cuesta $ 1.170 aproximadamente cada 100 títulos. De modo que comprando hoy se obtienen dólares en octubre a $ 11,30, a lo que hay que restar las comisiones que cada operador tenga.

Otras opciones abarcan directamente inversiones en títulos públicos, que también se pueden hacer con dólares. A diferencia del dólar ahorro, la inversión supone una valorización del capital. Las tasas de rendimiento anuales de los títulos públicos nacionales son superiores al 9% anual, a excepción de los títulos más largos que rinden el 8,5% anual o menos. Esto es excepcionalmente así porque los inversores esperan que los rendimientos bajen con el próximo gobierno y los títulos que más se valorizarían son los más largos. El Bonar 2024 es una alternativa muy interesante que combina buen rendimiento y también se valorizará si la próxima administración nacional logra reducir el riesgo país.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 31.5.2015

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