LA INFLUENCIA DE LA POLITICA EN LA BOLSA -la nota de la semana-

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Comenzaremos con un “aviso parroquial”. Nuestros lectores nos reconfortan con sus elogios. El 20.3. en la “nota semanal” expresamos: “… cabe preguntarse ante el castigo a las petroleras si no es conveniente apostar a futuro a una recuperación… “. Recientemente analizamos la compra por Cia Gral de combustibles (30% de Comercial del Plata) de la inversión de  PESA en Santa Cruz y anticipamos en exclusiva que la utilidad de PESA en esta operación será de u$s 64 mill que se contabilizaría en el 1º Trimestre. También afirmamos que la operación era conveniente para ambas. Ahora PESA confirma que la utilidad será de $674 millones y la suba del petróleo robustece las posibilidades de Comercial del Plata.

En las próximas 2 semanas la Bolsa estará “bajo la lupa”. En efecto, hasta ahora la firmeza se justificaba en un inminente cambio de Gobierno y de orientación económica. Hoy, las encuestas (dudosas) y el resultado de Salta (no representativo), sumado a elevada emisión (peligrosa) que asegura liquidez hasta Octubre, pone en duda tal  aseveración. De allí que la Bolsa necesita incentivos para volver a creer en un cambio de orientación económica. Estos incentivos comenzarán este domingo. Para colmo al producirse el vencimiento de opciones con elevada ganancia para los compradores, es esperable una baja que potenciaran una “Toma de ganancias”. En este contexto es posible una exageración en el normal ajuste, por lo que constituye una “oportunidad de compra”… si se comparte el análisis. De algo no tenemos dudas: en el mediano plazo el cambio de orientación económica es inexorable.

Héctor Tavares

7.763 comentarios

  1. CHORI TRADER

    Hola a todos, esta semana de abril se la llevó PETROBRAS, como ya adelantara la semana pasada las PETROLERAS tienen aún cuerda, para un rato mas.
    A propósito creo que la cuerda mas larga es para TS. ya que su movimiento ascendente fue el menos vertical.
    El resto yace deprimido y/o haciendo lógicas correcciones. Estimar dichas correcciones, en estos momentos es apresurado, PACIENCIA pero hay que estar atentos y manejar la ansiedad, porque ya llegará el momento de entrar nuevamente ya sea ELECTRICAS o BANCOS.
    Por su parte, BONO AA17, paga y se aprovecha lógico.
    La semana pasada JOSE TANGARI -a quien saludo- me preguntaba porque aseguraba que es una ganga el dolar? Entiendo que las razones están a la vista, en el orden interno -las doy por descontadas ya que la falta de dólares es evidente – pero el dato a destacar por sobretodo es a nivel regional, donde vemos como Brasil nuestro principal socio comercial, devaluó su moneda mas del15% en lo que va del año y lo seguirá haciendo.
    Por lo pronto -repito- APROVECHEMOS el DOLAR AHORRO hasta que llegue a estas orilla la devaluta. que tarde o temprano arribará de manera inexorable como la muerte en cada existencia humana.

    CHORI TRADER

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  2. josetangari

    Chori te contesto con un solo dato. Mis caputo subieron un 140%. Para ganar lo mismo el dólar debería valer $29. “Ganga” es el dólar o los activos en pesos subvaluados?

  3. Franklin

    Hector, a que se debe tanta polenta en la compra de Comercial del Plata, es por lo de CGC o hay algo mas? Hoy se llevaban todos los papeles que le ponían, era impresionante…llevaban de a 200 mil nominales y de manera totalmente pagadora? Hay algún desarme o un tongo o hay una mano grande llevando o un fondo? Quien pone tanto en comercial..

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  4. Tavares
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    Bueno, el papel está muy firme. Además, hubo muchos ejercicios y tenedores habituales lanzaron y vendieron. Deben estar retomando COME y se deben estar cortando….

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  5. Fede

    Hector, sigue alto el volumen en come, hoy termino roja y a mitad de rueda salio nota en bolsar respecto al aumento de capital en CGC en casi 398 millones…come logro mantener su 30% de participación en CGC….pero llama la atención tanto volumen para q el papel termine bajando…lo sigue viendo firme usted o se viene para abajo?

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  6. Tavares
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    En día de vencimiento de opciones, luego de la fuerte suba que tuvo y con este volumen y baja tan moderada, creo que hay elementos para ser optimistas. No será que CGC termina en WS?

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  274. My coder is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on a number of websites for about a year and am anxious about switching to another platform. I have heard good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it? Any help would be really appreciated!

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