LA GUERRA PETROLERA Y LAS BOLSAS-la nota semanal

 

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“Vientos de fronda” sobrevuelan por los mercados mundiales. CHINA perdió su empuje, EUROPA no reacciona y GRECIA vuelve a infundir temores. Como si eso fuera poco, la abundancia de petróleo con la aparición de los nuevos jugadores “fracking” derrumba su precio sumiendo en desesperación a países dependientes, no muy competitivos como RUSIA o VENEZUELA.

La solución no está cerca por cuanto está en juego el dominio del mercado petrolero, nada menos que entre ARABIA SAUDITA y EE. UU. Los analistas afirman que los contendientes llegarán hasta  la puerta del cementerio, pero no entrarán. De allí que se espera consensuar un valor intermedio que conforme a ambas partes. Lo positivo es que los países industriales demandantes de petróleo se verán beneficiados con un menor costo y lo que es más importante, con estabilidad de precios en razón de la ampliación de “players” oferentes. En síntesis, la economía mundial se vería beneficiada. En nuestro país el beneficio inmediato estaría en el menor gasto de importación, pero podría complicarse el desarrollo de Vaca Muerta, nuestra mayor fuente de inversiones. Este contexto se da en momentos que se anticipa la cancelación del BONAR 15 y se emitirán nuevos Títulos con vencimiento 2024 por u$s3000 millones. De resultar satisfactoria la operación, se aliviarían los compromisos del año 2015, lo que permitiría un tranquilo traspaso gubernamental. La materia pendiente seria la solución con los “holdouts” que perdería urgencia y mejoraría la posición negociadora.

Este panorama indicaría que la inversión en activos argentinos no seria un mal negocio a mediano plazo. El  sector bancario recuperaría su posición de privilegio por las utilidades logradas y por la revalorización de  los Títulos Públicos.  Algún día distribuirán sus  utilidades acumuladas. Protección segura se logra con SIDERAR, con utilidades de 3.078 millones en 9 meses (1434 millones en 2013) con capital de 4517 millones . ALUAR con utilidades de 429, 2 millones en 3 meses (101 millones en 2013) y Capital de 2500 millones; MOLINOS RIO con 620,6 millones en 9 meses (10,4 millones en 2013) con capital de 250,4 millones; TELECOM con 2644 milones  (2324 millones en 2013) y capital de 984 millones.

Entre las de menor mercado debe observarse con atención a MOLINOS SEMINO por la favorable posición ante el  menor valor del trigo, su materia prima. Si bien en el 1º trimestre perdió 1,4 millones, no seria de extrañar una recuperación en el segundo. Adeuda 17% en acciones.

Héctor Tavares

 

 

 

 

 

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    Siempre el mismo tema con las acciones locales, comprar resultados acumulados, nunca una politica de dividendos competitiva. Para pensar.

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