LA BOLSA Vs. LA VUELTA A LA BICICLETA FINANCIERA -la nota de la semana-

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Tal como se sostenía en la entrega semanal anterior, los inversores bursátiles tienen motivos para tomarse un compás de espera, ante acontecimientos mundiales y locales que necesitan un análisis mas profundo. El trascendido que la OPEP  no reducirá su bombeo de petróleo y que  mantendrá ofertado su mercado, limita la reacción de su precio. La “Tasa cero” mundial que alienta el consumo, la inversión especulativa y la recompra de propias acciones por las grandes empresas , comienza a mostrar su lado negativo con apariciones de “burbujas” en inmuebles o en precio de acciones que no reflejan la verdadera situación de las empresas. La firmeza del dólar amenaza las economías emergentes.-La crisis de GRECIA renueva temores en la Unión Europea. Todo, constituye un “combo” que requiere tiempo y mayores análisis.

El mercado local oscila alrededor de las encuestas eleccionarias, de dudosa credibilidad y las distintas alternativas políticas que se suceden. De allí que ante tasas en pesos que superan el 25% anual y un dólar oficial “achatado”, en la espera se practica “la bicicleta”.Pero es una especulación de tiempo limitado y riesgosa, no tanto frente al dólar en el corto plazo pero si frente al precio  de acciones que exageran su caída. Es una Bolsa para aprovechar oportunidades. El caso más concreto fue el de Comercial, cuya especulación bajista tuvo un rudo golpe hoy jueves.  No se puede dudar de las posibilidades de ALUAR, SIDERAR o BANCO GALICIA entre los lideres.

¿Qué hay detrás de la firmeza de PESA? O PETROLERA PAMPA en momentos que el petróleo no muestra su mejor momento? Igual podría decirse de los volúmenes operados en AGROMETAL, CECO, SEMINO, TRANSENER, etc. No hay dudas que, si bien la incertidumbre política redujo el ingreso masivo a la Bolsa, existen agazapadas las “compras de oportunidad”. Es destacable la evolución de GAROVAGLIO desde su restructuración. Hoy es una Empresa bien gestionada, con buenos productos y con posibilidad de crecimiento. En  9 meses gano 21,7 mill con capital de 30 millones.

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2.368 comentarios

  1. Mat
    28 mayo, 2015 at 19:43 - Reply

    Hola Héctor. Si le sirve de consuelo, piratas hay en todos lados (no solo los que firman respuestas truchas con su nombre) Mire la nota trucha de COME. Aunque haya algo de cierto en ella, no es más que una “viveza criolla” Que opina de AUSO? Está para comprar? Saludos…

  2. horacio
    28 mayo, 2015 at 21:02 - Reply

    Yo, Mat, por mi parte, no me privé y me regalé mil accioncitas de AUSO a ver que pasa y como sigue. Me gusta.

  3. Fede V
    29 mayo, 2015 at 09:01 - Reply

    Hector, que me dice del bochorno de ayer en COME?…sale nota con supuesta fecha de salida de adr en nyse que hasta figuraba con la marca “ingresada merval emisoras 10:51″….la cotización en menos de una hora hace llamado a plaza de 15 min…después siguen pagando, al no aparecer la nota ni en bolsar ni en la cnv baja un poco la cotización…mucha incertidumbre hasta que finalmente suspenden la cotización (tarde para mi gusto) con $19MM ya operados…la empresa comunica que la nota no salio de ellos (pero que la idea de adr esta) y la bolsa y merval emisoras aclaran que la nota nunca fue recepcionada por ellos…reanudan la cotización y en 40 min meten $10MM mas de volumen y termina cerrando con una suba del 11%…que misterio!!!
    A todo esto, las agencias blommberg y reuters publicaron notas donde dan por cierto la salida del adr y citan fuente “gente de la empresa que pidio no ser identificados”…
    En el road show de las 18hs en la bolsa, Noel habla del perfil de come y el futuro…evita hablar del bochorno del dia, dice que esta en carpeta lo del adr pero no amplia…
    Todo un misterio…muy poco transparente todo…

  4. Tavares
    Author
    29 mayo, 2015 at 09:34 - Reply

    Bueno: Lo de COME es preocupante. Desde hace dos semanas hay mucha presión en esta plaza. Tiraron cualquier cosa para bajarla y luego como siempre, lo opuesto. Yo siempre creí que en el corto lo del ADR puede ser de CGC. Y a posteriori COME, luego de sanear totalmente su balance.
    Sobre AUSOL, ya señalé que me sorprendió gratamente su trimestral. Siempre jugué para Oeste, con mejor balance y buenos dividendos. Pero AUSOL va por buen camino y me parece bien tirar una fichita. Saludos

  5. jimmy.92
    29 mayo, 2015 at 10:06 - Reply

    Hector que opinas de ferrum tiene un PER un poco menor a 6, esta muy poco endeudada, tiene mas efectivo que deuda a largo plazo , la favorece el plan de pro crear para viviendas y es la única empresa Argentina que produce gritería y sanitarios. Hace muchos que no comentas nada de esta acción.
    Saludos

  6. joset
    29 mayo, 2015 at 11:42 - Reply

    No produce griferia ferrum. Esta muy barata, en comparación a otras q no paran de perder plata!!! Ferrum todos los trimestres 0,2 por acción gana

    • jimmy.92
      29 mayo, 2015 at 12:10 - Reply

      Joset Ferrum si produce gritería bajo la marca fv. De hecho ese no es lo único que produce ferrum. También produce tableros de fibra de madera de media densidad (MDF) para la fabricación de muebles , la empresa se llama Guillermina y la controla Ferrum. Pero sus actividades no terminan ahí , también es la principal accionista de la empresa “Piedra grande” que se encarga de la extracción de arcilla, cuarzo y caolines para abastecer al mercado cerámico.
      La pagina web de la empresa “www.ferrum.com” ahí vas encontrar una explicación mas detallada de todo lo que produce.

  7. joset
    29 mayo, 2015 at 13:26 - Reply

    Estas seguro que cuando comprás Ferrum tambien abarca la griferia? Miro los balances de ferrum y de lo producido aparecen los tableros, las bañeras, los sanitarios, pero nada de griferia… Puedo estar equivocado, seguirè investigando

  8. Tavares
    Author
    29 mayo, 2015 at 16:29 - Reply

    Jimmy: Ferrum es muy buen papel. Pero no produce grifería. Si su controlante FV. En sanitarios no es la única. Está Roca (ex Capea). Abrazo

  10. CHORI TRADER
    30 mayo, 2015 at 09:25 - Reply

    Hola a todos. El mes de MAYO resultó ser el mas negativo para el mercado accionario, con un Merval que descendió el 10.5%.Esta semana fue para el olvido, siguió recortando las ganancias alcanzadas y continua lateralizando para la baja.

    Pero Atención, así como en MAYO no hubo una sola suba dentro de la cartera del Merval, y desde acá pedíamos paciencia a los inversores, no tengo dudas que JUNIO será la hora de las oportunidades, la baja de los Bancos y Petroleras es indisimulable, a paso firme y de manera sostenida se vienen desinflando, los mínimos se están avizorando en el horizonte.

    Un párrafo para COME, ya nos ocupamos de ella en otras entradas, pero lo cierto es que resulta preocupante todo lo que circuló en torno a ella esta semana. De repetirse, es imposible una recuperación genuina, es decir propia, natural, legítima desde sus fundamentos.

    En tanto, no olviden de entrarle la próxima semana, en JUNIO al DOLAR AHORRO, es una ganga.

    CHORI TRADER

  11. alberto
    30 mayo, 2015 at 18:13 - Reply

    Llego el turno de tgs. Metr ? Parece hacer retroceso 61.8% fijo listas para salir up … Q le parecé Tavares?

  13. alberto
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    Esperemos sea asi q tenga razòn yo TAVARES… jaja el mes empezò muy bien… algo bueno se cocina en la politica para q impacte en la bolsa y suba….. veremos de q se trata….

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