LA BOLSA EN EL AÑO QUE CAMBIA EL GOBIERNO (la coyuntura y el mediano plazo). -la nota de la semana-

 

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Ya pasada la primera quincena del 2015, hay que diferenciar entre la coyuntura difícil (caída de petróleo, commodities, etc.) y el cambio de gobierno, que inexorablemente se producirá en el corriente año y que determinará notables cambios en las políticas económicas y de relaciones exteriores implementadas en la última década. Y esto ocurrirá gane quién gane, ya que los tres candidatos que mejor miden opinan igual (de acuerdo a los colaboradores y futuros candidatos  que tienen) independientemente de las características de las campañas antes de las PASO.

Por lo tanto, parece tener más ponderación este fenómeno que las alzas y bajas de la coyuntura. La opinión de la página ya ha sido dada. Con referencia al petróleo (guía de precios para otros commodities)  se sostiene que para antes de mitad de año tenga una significativa recuperación ante la presión de potencias como Rusia, el gran perjudicado en la baja. Se presionará a los países de medio oriente para que bajen la producción.

En cuanto a lo que se viene en la Argentina, es claramente mayor ortodoxia económica, lo que no significa vuelta a un neoliberalismo que supere al norteamericano. Menor déficit, no al cepo cambiario (no descartar un doble mercado) arreglo con los acreedores (no a cualquier precio), incentivar la inversión, etc. etc. En materia de relaciones exteriores, VOLVER A OCCIDENTE.

Teniendo en cuenta estas hipótesis, no es descabellada una política de acumulación accionaria, ya que la Bolsa es anticipación y no está lejana la “campana de largada”. Los grandes beneficiados, en la primera etapa del cambio que viene serán los bancos, que siguen muy atrasados respecto a los de la región y tienen fuertes dividendos pendientes. En esta línea de pensamiento, Banco Patagonia y Banco Santander Río aparecen como los más atrasados por cotizar (por ahora) en el panel general y no tener ADR en Wall Street.

Los papeles del campo, muy castigados, tendrán revancha. Ante el hipotético cambio en los precios relativos, se verán favorecidos los productores que hasta hoy se los trata casi como enemigos. San Miguel, Agrometal, Semino, en las gateras. No olvidar a Rigolleau, también en el general.

El panel líder será el primero en reaccionar, teniendo recorrido las energéticas y las exportadoras. En emprendimientos inmobiliarios, la onda es Consultatio.

Héctor Tavares

 

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    16 enero, 2015 at 18:13 - Reply

    Sr Hector Tavares le comento una idea que hace rato que me da vuelta en la cabeza,: supuestamente, con nuevo gobiero en 2016 entrarian inversiones extrangeras a la Argentina, y por ende muchos dolares, y como dice la calle “la chancha y los 20 chanchitos …. no existe “, si queremos que vengan inversores de afuera tenemos que permitir que entren muchos dolares y por ende se llene la plaza del mismo, trayendo como concecuencia que baje el valor del dolar .
    Yo pregunto, comprando acciones en la bolsa de comercio en Argentina estamos comprando pesos, con esos pesos , al tomar valor el mismo, compraria mas dolares con los mismos pesos, aumentarian su valor en dolares.

    Conclucion : no solamente ganaria en el valor de las acciones, sino que ganaria en valor en dolares de la misma
    ¿puede darse Hector ? Gracias .

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    Hector, ves alocado pensar que veremos duplicación en algunos valores en $ tomando la suba que mencionas de bancos, energeticas y exportadoras, más una suba gradual del CCL, tipica de todo proceso PRE ELECCIONARIO. Gracias, muy buen laburo.

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