LA APUESTA DE LOS AJUSTABLES POR CER

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Si bien difieren sensiblemente los guarismos, tanto la inflación medida por el Indec como por los diferentes organismos públicos provinciales o consultoras privadas marcaron una fuerte desaceleración los últimos meses del 2014. De acuerdo con los datos preliminares publicados por las estadísticas de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, en enero la tendencia parece mantenerse. Sin embargo, proyectar a futuro el nivel de evolución de los precios constituye una ardua tarea, y de hecho las expectativas de inflación se sitúan entre el 25% y el 30% en promedio, si bien con mucha dispersión. En definitiva, hay mucha incertidumbre para la inflación definitiva del 2015.

Las razones del retroceso son varias, pero enraizadas principalmente en la caída de la actividad económica. También contribuyó la absorción de pesos llevada adelante por el Banco Central a través de la emisión de Letras (aumentando su deuda con los bancos comerciales). La realidad es que la tasa de interés por las letras que paga el Banco Central se asemeja a la inflación esperada, con lo cual sería un hito en la historia de este  gobierno la fuerte reducción de la brecha entre la tasa de interés y la inflación.

La incertidumbre respecto de la inflación definitiva abre un panorama amplio para el espectro de bonos. El mercado está terminando de acostumbrarse al nuevo paradigma financiero donde la primacía del dólar empieza a mermar. De hecho, los grandes inversores en su mayoría apuestan sus fondos a las colocaciones de corto plazo en letras del Banco Central. La pregunta de qué medidas tomará la autoridad monetaria en el futuro es otra incógnita con fuertes implicancias.

Los primeros títulos que sufrieron una fuerte apreciación han sido los vinculados al dólar oficial, favorecidos por el aumento del ritmo devaluatorio. También los bonos en dólares reducen su rendimiento paulatinamente a medida que se acercan las elecciones primarias. Por último, los bonos que ajustan por CER han tenido una demanda mayor, pero todavía algo más distante que los dos primeros. Sin embargo, estos últimos cuentan con un atractivo especial para el próximo año: la eventual normalización de las estadísticas del Indec. De todos los ajustes que reclaman las cuentas públicas, la restitución de las estadísticas es quizás la más factible en términos de impacto político vs. costo económico.

En ese escenario, el rendimiento actual de los bonos que ajustan por CER resulta excesivo. Nueve puntos porcentuales de tasa real con riesgo nulo (ya que son bonos en pesos) sin duda se trata de un exceso justificable solamente por tener que esperar un año con inflación subvaluada. Los títulos más largos de la curva CER tendrían una apreciación del orden del 50% para llegar a tener un rendimiento de 5% anual más inflación en el momento que se realice la corrección de las estadísticas. Vale decir que para tener una tasa razonable (aunque algo elevada), los bonos largos con CER deberán duplicar su precio, además de su rendimiento actual ya de por sí aceptable.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 15.2.2015

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