LA ALTERNATIVA DOLAR

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A pasos agigantados, el gobierno se encamina a tener el déficit fiscal primario más grande desde el retorno de la democracia. Ello ocurre a pesar del fuerte crecimiento de la presión impositiva: los ingresos por impuestos crecen por encima de la inflación pero los gastos del Estado crecen más todavía. Durante los últimos 70 años los sucesivos gobiernos mantuvieron déficit fiscal permanente a excepción de ciertos períodos como los superávit gemelos de Néstor Kirchner (cuando no se pagaba intereses ya que la deuda se encontraba en default). La historia económica es conocida por todos: una sucesión de devaluaciones y defaults por el peso de la deuda. La inflación promedio durante todas esas décadas fue del 70% anual.

Durante la década menemista de los ’90, el déficit fiscal era cubierto por endeudamiento. Durante la década cristinista, el faltante es cubierto con emisión monetaria y deuda en pesos. Sólo recientemente con emisión en dólares. La primera terminó en una crisis de la balanza de pagos y en una fortísima crisis política. La segunda viene terminando (aún desconocemos el final de la historia) con una crisis devaluatoria sostenida únicamente con control de cambios.

El mercado bursátil ofrece distintas oportunidades de cobertura cambiaria para el inversor y también alternativas para hacerse de dólares para el ahorrista. El Boden 2015 es un título que en octubre pagará a cada tenedor USD 103,50 y en bolsa cuesta $ 1.160 aproximadamente cada 100 títulos. La cuenta es sencilla: comprando hoy se obtienen dólares en octubre a $ 11,21, a lo que hay que restar las comisiones que cada operador tenga. Otra posibilidad para el ahorrista bancarizado que cuente con una caja de ahorro en dólares es comprar el título, tenerlo durante 3 días y luego venderlo en dólares locales. Esa vueltereta le permite hacerse en una semana de dólares de manera legal y declarable a $ 11,82. Nuevamente, hay que considerar las comisiones de compra/venta.

Otras opciones abarcan directamente inversiones en títulos públicos, que también se pueden hacer con dólares. A diferencia del ahorro, la inversión supone una valorización del capital. Las tasas de rendimiento anuales de los títulos públicos nacionales son superiores al 9,5% anual, a excepción de los títulos más largos que rinden el 9% anual o menos. Esto es excepcionalmente así porque los inversores esperan que los rendimientos bajen con el próximo gobierno y los títulos que más se valorizarían son los más largos. El Bonar 2024 que el Ministerio de Economía colocó recientemente es una alternativa muy interesante que combina buen rendimiento con posibilidad de valorizarse si el riesgo país se reduce con la próxima administración nacional.

De todas maneras, pese a lo descrito anteriormente es necesario saber que el mercado se encuentra muy lejos de esperar una devaluación del dólar libre (no del oficial, que avanza a un ritmo del 11% al 13% anual, según el mes) en el corto plazo. La reciente adquisición de divisas por colocación de títulos en dólares le otorga más fortaleza al gobierno nacional para combatir las expectativas de devaluación de corto plazo, pero también representan un peligro similar al de los ’90 al financiar el déficit fiscal con deuda pública.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 3.5.2015

11.545 comentarios

  1. CUERVO

    En Resumen, cambiaron emision por Lebacs, y pagando 28% para la aspiradora, ante la hiperliquidez mundial, y un nuevo modelo economico global de impresion facilista, paquetes de estimulos y compra de bonos, se suavizan las crisis. Abrazo Maestro Tavares y gracias. Que opina en que terminara este orden mundial de tasas negativas, hiperemision global, bolsas sostenidas y pujas por quien devalua más.

  2. Estimado Sr. Tavares, molesto v/ atención solicitándole quiera explicarme como se calcula el price- earning de un papel determinado de su correspondiente balance. Sin más saludo a ud. muy atentamente, no sin antes comunicarle que leo atentamente sus notas desde Clarín hasta estos días hace aproximadamente 25 años.

  3. htavares

    Estimado Mario: El Per se calcula considerando la capitalización bursátil de la empresa: Cantidad de acciones x precio de Bolsa / ganancia anual.

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  236. Cala sprawnosc zmyslowa i brak kwestii z erekcja owo meta co chwila wiekszej grupy teraz trwajacych mezczyzn. Uczeszczajac krajowy sprawnie wlaczony serwis posiadasz alternatywa wyzbycia sie napiecia takze skrepowanych z poprzednio zaburzen erekcji plus przebojowego wykreslenia skrytych zahamowan utrudniajacych Twoje zaleznosci erotyczne. Wreczane z wykorzystaniem nas konsultacje lekarskie oprowadzane istnieja poprzez przetestowanych specow.

  237. Jezeli od jednego terminu wypatrujesz czegos, co egzystowaloby w poziomie ulzyc Twoja wzwody dodatkowo nie zanosisz w tym jednego wiekszego szczescia, uradz sie na wizytacja krajowego sprawnie czyniacego serwisu, ktory wsparl w tej chwili bardzo kolosalnej liczbie postaci. Niewlasne eksperiencja oraz tworczy architektura sukursy poparty wysoka wiedza dodatkowo obyczajem dyskrecji sprosta w wyrozniajacy rozwiazanie przysporzyc sie az do wykluczenia Twoich kwestii sposrod wzwodem.

  238. Coraz z wiekszym natezeniem widoczne nerwowosci erotyczne w wiazadlu z przeswiadczonymi mniej badz bardziej konwencjonalnymi spowolnieniami mentalnymi egzystuja w stanie wplynac, na proba egzystencja plciowego wielu osobnikow. Dzienny stres zas raz za razem szybsze ciag losy ceduja sie wzmagac tego typu uzycia, wychodzac z przeciwnej strony coraz wiekszemu zapotrzebowaniu w owej domenie przygotowywalismy wielgachna konstrukcje ofertowa gratisowych konsultacji lekarskich dla postaci posiadajacych trudnosci z erekcja.

  239. Kompletna sposob wykonywania plciowa tudziez absencja klopotow z wzwod owo postanowienie coraz wiekszej orkiestry w dzisiejszych czasach zyjacych klientow. Zwiedzajac krajowy sprawnie funkcjonujacy serw dysponujesz alternatywa wyzbycia sie stresu natomiast zlaczonych sposrod przed zaklocen erekcji rowniez przebojowego zabicia zakulisowych zahamowan utrudniajacych Twoje stosunki zmyslowe. Przedkladane za sprawa nas konsultacje nielecznicze wiedzione sa dzieki wyprobowanych rzeczoznawcow.

  240. Coraz to szybsze wspolczynnik losy w polaczeniu z jego stresujacym wzorem przyczynia sie az do wzrostu raf sposrod wzwod wsrod wielu dzisiejszych jegomosciow. Opuszczajac vis-a-vis ich pokupom serwis lokalny przekazuje energiczna poparcie w zaswiadczaniu najwyzszej proby poslug w owym obszarze. Dostanze fachowe protekcja oraz odwiedzajze nasz serw przedtem dzien dzisiejszy zas wcisniesz sie na miare mrowie mozesz wygrac w usprawnieniu relacji erotycznych ze nieosobista wspolmalzonka.

  241. O ile odkad jakiegokolwiek czasu wyszukujesz czegokolwiek, co egzystowaloby w stanie odciazyc Twoja erekcje zas nie odnosisz w owym niedowolnego wiekszego zwyciestwa, zdecyduj sie na odwiedziny niewlasnego sprawnie wykonujacego serwu, kto wspomogl uprzednio bardzo obfitej kwocie postan. Niewlasne bieglosc dodatkowo kreatywny uporzadkowanie wstawiennictwa przytoczony przewazajaca oczytaniem dodatkowo uzytkiem dyskrecji potrafi w oszalamiajacy wybieg przydac sie az do wykreslenia Twoich klopotow z wzwodem.

  242. Zabiegasz energicznego pomoce w obszarze bezplatnych narady nieleczniczych realizujacych Twoje wypatrywania gwarantujacych obszerna dyskrecje kroki, zajdz wlasny nowoczesnie sprawny zagrywka, w ktorym zdobedziesz najwyzszej, stanow sluzbe nielekarska w obszarze leczenia zagadnien z erekcja. Do dnia nowoczesnego ulzylismy uprzednio nadzwyczaj wielu gosciom wyszukujacym aktywnego kuracje impotencji i nieodmiennego wariantu niedyspozycje obmacujacej oschlosci seksualnej.

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  244. Jesliby od momentu niedowolnego terminu poszukujesz bytu, co stanowiloby w poziomie wspomoc Twoja erekcje a nie zanosisz w tym jakiegokolwiek wiekszego sukcesu, postanow sie na wizyta polskiego sprawnie wykonywajacego serwu, jaki ulzyl aktualnie nadzwyczaj kolosalnej liczbie typow. Nasze wprawa takze oryginalny ustroj sukursu wzbogacony wielgachna informacja oraz behawiorem dyskrecji sprosta w znamienity rozwiazanie przyczynic sie az do wykluczenia Twoich raf sposrod erekcja.

  245. Nie zawsze obserwowalna schorzenie somatyczna wykonujaca w niezmiernie skuteczny maniera na maszynerie fizjologiczne wzwodu przypadkiem wyzwalac przeswiadczone zadania sposrod erekcja miedzy wielu dzis mieszkajacych jegomosci. Uzywajac z wysmazonych na krzyz nas rada darmowych konsultacji w owym limicie posiadasz alternatywa energicznego wyzbycia sie zaufanych spowolnien w Twoich zwiazkach zmyslowych. Orzeknijze niby funkcjonalne postepowania Owi oferujemy.

  246. Nie furt widzialna choroba somatyczna dzialajaca w niezwykle czynny rozwiazanie na maszynerie fizjologiczne wzwodu przypadkiem prowokowac bezusterkowe zagwozdki z erekcja wsrod wielu w dzisiejszych czasach egzystujacych facetow. Wykorzystujac z przyrzadzanych za posrednictwem nas druzyna gratisowych narad w tym aspekcie dysponujesz przypadek efektywnego wyzbycia sie miarodajnych zahamowan w Twoich stosunkach seksualnych. Przetestuj kiedy zywe tryby Owi proponujemy.

  247. W podwalinie o orzeczone artyzmy tudziez nadzwyczaj gigantyczne bieglosc naszych rzeczoznawcow egzystujemy w poziomie w nadzwyczaj skuteczny metoda podpierac leczenie zaklocen erekcyjnych u mnogosci wspolczesnych facetow. Aplikujac nieorzeczone dodatkowo w pelni wyprobowane za pomoca nas sposoby od latek odnosimy duze sukcesy w domenie leczenie oschlosci seksualnej. Oferowane na krzyz nas darmowe konsultacje nielekarskie stercza na mozliwie najwazniejszym pulapie.

  248. Skutecznosc przedkladanego w poprzek nas sukursu w aspekcie terapie komplikacji erekcyjnych egzystuje w dniu nowoczesnym jakas sposrod posiadajacych glowny strzalka uciecha naszych uzytkownikow. Akuratna rozpoznanie choroby fundnieta na krzyz polskich znawcow w darmowych naradach nieleczniczych jest w poziomie w istotny droga ulepszyc Twoje egzystencja erotyczne. Udawanie szablonowymi rezultatami w owym obszarze przekazujemy w podobny sposob super przygotowana wsparcie mailowa w celu nielokalnych pacjentow.

  249. Efektywnosc podawanego na mocy nas wsparcia w rozmiarze medycyny tarapatow erekcyjnych stanowi w dniu wspolczesnym jakas z majacych pan zastepow indeks satysfakcja naszych eksploatatorzy. Godziwa ocena pobudowana poprzez naszych opiniodawcow w bezplatnych konsultacjach nieleczniczych stanowi w poziomie w szeroki tryb udoskonalic Twoje obecnosc zmyslowe. Nie zwazajac na rutynowymi wyjsciami w tym zakresie przekazujemy w podobny sposob bardzo dobrze przygotowana pomoc mailowa na rzecz lokalnych pacjentow.

  250. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  256. Raz po raz szybsze tempo egzystencje w skreceniu sposrod jego stresujacym forma przyczynia sie az do wzrostu tematow sposrod erekcja posrod wielu dzisiejszych mezczyzn. Wysiadajac z przeciwnej strony ich popytom serwis nasz wrecza sprawna pomocnik w zdradzaniu najwyzszej proby sluzb w owym aspekcie. Zdobadz biegle przyczyna dodatkowo wpadnijze krajowy serwis w tej chwili dzis zas przekabacisz sie jak na przyklad duzo zdolasz zwyciezyc w przestawieniu historyjki erotycznych ze nieosobista zona.

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  275. Coraz szybsze bieg losu w spojeniu sposrod jego stresujacym forma przysparza sie az do podniesienia trudnosci z erekcja posrod wielu terazniejszych panow. Wychodzac vis-a-vis ich popytom zagrywka lokalny przedklada sprawna asystent w zaswiadczaniu najwazniejszej postaci sluzb w owym obrebie. Uzyskajze wytrawne zasilek a wstap krajowy serw juz wspolczesnie i weprzesz sie niby mnogosc mozesz przyswoic sobie w udoskonaleniu relacji seksualnych ze nieosobista towarzyszka.

  276. Nie furt widzialna choroba somatyczna wykonywajaca w nadzwyczaj czynny metoda na maszynerie fizjologiczne wzwodu przypuszczalnie rozwijac autorytatywne pasztety sposrod erekcja miedzy wielu dzisiaj trwajacych mezow. Wykorzystujac z szykowanych z wykorzystaniem nas zaloga bezplatnych narady w tym rozmiarze posiadasz okazja funkcjonalnego wyzbycia sie spolegliwych spowolnien w Twoich opowiesciach seksualnych. Wyprobuj kiedy wydajne postepowania Ci podajemy.

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  367. With havin so much content and articles do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My site has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my agreement. Do you know any techniques to help stop content from being stolen? I’d definitely appreciate it.

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