INTERESANTE PERSPECTIVA EN SEMINO -la nota de la semana-

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Lo errático del mercado bursátil local será la constante del primer semestre, mientras se palpita el resultado eleccionario. Demasiadas incertidumbres internacionales y propias contribuyen a sostener este pronóstico. En efecto, todavía no se estabilizó el precio del petróleo, no se vislumbra claramente la salida de la crisis de Grecia y los mejores indicadores de EE. UU no tienen correlato en las economías de  la Comunidad Europea y los BRICS. Se necesita algo más de tiempo para que se transparenten.

En nuestro país la proximidad eleccionaria paralizó  la acción de gobierno. Ya en otra entrega estimábamos que se haría “la plancha” en materia económica. Hoy la confirmamos. Continuará  la súper emisión con absorción que reflotará el  déficit “cuasi-fiscal”, se extremará el rigor cambiario, se mantendrá la subvaluación del  dólar como única arma antiinflacionaria, no se negociará con los “holdouts” y se obtendrá financiación no tradicional por medio de convenios y contratos discutibles, además del riesgo de  fusionarnos o ser dependientes de  culturas extrañas a nuestra idiosincrasia. Será la aplicación del “todo vale” para poder llegar a Octubre con números elegantes que sirvan para la estadística. Total, el precio del “ajuste” lo pagarán los próximos gobernantes.

Desde el interés bursátil, este desgobierno será el éxito de todos los que  inviertan en  esta etapa. Es “la crónica del éxito anunciado” por cuánto fatalmente, quien suceda al Gobierno actual, deberá actuar “de manual”. En el mundo sobran capitales ansiosos de volcarse a países normales, con enormes posibilidades como la Argentina (virgen de inversiones), con la sola exigencia de  ofrecer reglas jurídicas claras y estables, entre otras conductas a reconsiderar.

En esta tesitura los “Fondos de Riesgo” anticipan su ingreso y actúan sobre los papeles lideres. Para los medianos inversores se tornan interesantes desde  su probable mayor rentabilidad los integrantes del  “panel general con reales fundamentos”. El riesgo de su menor mercado se transforma en una virtud en una Bolsa activa. La oportunidad de su compra se da en Bolsas irresolutas. En esta oportunidad nos  referimos a SEMINO que presenta fundamentos valiosos a considerar. En su 1º Trimestre perdió 1.456.000. Transformándolo en 6 meses en una  ganancia de 3.944.000.- o sea que solo en  el 2º trimestre gano 5.400.000.- con capital de 106.7 millones. Esta reversión se produjo gracias a la política triguera oficial que permitió que el trigo local (materia prima de SEMINO) bajara de $2100 la tn a $1000/1200 al 30.11.14,  manteniéndose a la fecha. Como consecuencia el margen bruto subió de 7.70% a 13,50%.

Debemos agregar que inversiones realizadas le dieron autoabastecimiento energético y cobertura contra inundaciones. La tranquilidad del dólar le asegura una eficiente programación productiva, sin sobresaltos. De todas formas posee una posición positiva cambiaria por $21.800.000. Otra eventualidad positiva no contabilizada es una diferencia por compensaciones que  tiene con la ex ONCCA, la que si resulta favorable le representaría una utilidad extra de $11.3 millones.-Finalmente señalamos que próximamente pondría a éedisposición el dividendo pendiente del 17% en acciones. Interesante.

Héctor Tavares

1.581 comentarios

  1. CHARLY

    HECTOR DENTRO DEL PANEL GENERAL CON REALES FUNDAMENTOS CUALES SON LAS ACCIONES SUGERIDAS PARA NO QUEDARNOS AFUERA DEL éxito de todos los que inviertan en esta etapa.
    MUCHAS GRACIAS

  2. hernanC

    Comparto los comentarios. Es una empresa bien manejada y con solidos fundamentos. Y con una planta de las mas modernas del mundo…siempre invierte en mejoras y tegnologia… mucho futuro ante un cambio de gobierno promercado…..

  3. Fede

    Sucedera lo mismo que en las PRE ELECTORALES DE BRASIL… minimo 100%…. el tema y me gustaria su respuesta Hector…. es con los ajustes que se debe hacer EL PROXIMO GOBIERNO… que no vendria un ajuste del indice ? Muchas gracias por el espacio.

  4. Maria Eugenia

    Buenas Tardes Héctor. Tiene idea cuándo Semino estaría poniendo a disposición el dividendo en acciones? porque hace mucho que lo anunciaron y hasta ahora nada. Saludos.

  5. Tavares
    Author

    El dividendo de Semino está aprobado en la IGJ de Santa Fe y espera su aprobación en Capital Federal. Será en cualquier momento. Saludos

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