INFLACION, LA GRAN INCOGNITA

 

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La inflación fue récord en el 2014, tanto para las consultoras privadas como para el propio INDEC, que terminó marcando una evolución de 24% para todo el año. Incluso, ambos coincidieron en algo revelador: la velocidad de la inflación marcó un fuerte descenso en la última parte del año. Ocurre que tanto la política monetaria restrictiva del Banco Central como la severa recesión productiva afectaron fuertemente la demanda y, por lo tanto, detuvieron el alza de precios.

En los últimos años los inversores se habían manejado con una inflación que oscilaba entre 25% y 30%, con excepción del 2014. El número marcaba un objetivo de rendimiento para los títulos en pesos y también servía de comparativo con los títulos en dólares, si bien éstos se rigen por otros parámetros. Sin embargo, para el 2015 aún se desconoce ese horizonte de rendimiento que marca el pulso de los bonos. Es razonable el desconcierto en tanto y en cuanto aún la economía continúa en recesión (principalmente por la escasez de dólares para importar) y el Banco Central mantiene altas tasas de interés absorbiendo pesos del sistema financiero. De modo que por lo pronto se especula con un ritmo de suba de precios en torno al 25% o 30% anual, pero se aventura más esa cifra por una cuestión de inercia de años anteriores que por cálculos concretos. Lo cierto es que existe incertidumbre en torno a la inflación esperada.

El hecho abre una incógnita respecto a los bonos en pesos. De terminar con una inflación del 25% para el año, el rendimiento del 10% de los bonos con CER son una buena vía de ahorro para diversificar. Del mismo modo, los títulos que pagan interés badlar tienen un rendimiento aproximado entre el 25% y 28% (siempre recordando que el interés es variable). Ambas son una interesante alternativa en los momentos actuales donde el dólar no parece tener perspectivas de dispararse en el corto plazo.

Por otro lado, los bonos que pagan en pesos al tipo de cambio oficial, también llamados “dólar-link” en la jerga financiera, durante la semana tuvieron una fuerte baja en los rendimientos (que prometen a futuro). Es decir, han aumentado su precio por encima de la devaluación oficial. La demanda de estos títulos había comenzado a principios de enero cuando el Banco Central “aceleró” la devaluación oficial por una semana (con la “aceleración” el peso se devalúa a un perezoso ritmo del 15% anual). Ese hecho, sumado al potencial que guardan en una eventual unificación de los tipos de cambio en el 2016, había provocado la suba del precio de los títulos cortos con vencimiento entre 2016 y 2018. Los títulos más largos habían quedado rezagados y durante la semana dieron finalmente el salto.

La inversión de elección continúan siendo los bonos en dólares, pero los inversores profesionales ya comienzan a mirar con otros ojos las alternativas en pesos. Éstas mantienen un rendimiento más constante y se encuentran más alejadas de riesgos de impago. Los próximos meses, cuando se conozcan los índices de inflación de la primer parte del año, podrían determinar una mayor demanda de bonos en pesos.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 1.2.2015 

 

 

 

 

3.674 comentarios

  1. juan

    No estoy de acuerdo con la explicación de los CER y la inflación. Cuando se habla del 25/30% de inflacion para el 2015 se entiende inflacion real para las mediciones privadas, con lo cual ese dato no es el relevante para medir el rendimiento de los bonos que ajustan por inflacion. Para los Bonos CER hay que considerar la inflación oficial, si para 2014 fue del 24%, habiendo una devaluacion de por medio y desacelerando sobre el final, para 2015 de no ediar cambios debería ser bastante menor.
    Saludos!

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  354. I am really enjoying the theme/design of your web site. Do you ever run into any web browser compatibility problems? A handful of my blog audience have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Chrome. Do you have any advice to help fix this issue?

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  357. Hey there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  358. I was curious if you ever considered changing the structure of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

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  361. Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic however , I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog post or vice-versa? My site discusses a lot of the same topics as yours and I think we could greatly benefit from each other. If you happen to be interested feel free to send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Great blog by the way!

  362. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  364. Hello are using WordPress for your site platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and set up my own. Do you need any coding knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

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  367. Hello there! Quick question that’s totally off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My web site looks weird when browsing from my apple iphone. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to resolve this problem. If you have any recommendations, please share. With thanks!

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  369. Superb blog! Do you have any suggestions for aspiring writers? I’m planning to start my own website soon but I’m a little lost on everything. Would you propose starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many choices out there that I’m completely overwhelmed .. Any suggestions? Bless you!

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  371. Today, I went to the beachfront with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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