HAY QUE PASAR EL SEMESTRE -la nota de la semana-

saltar-abismo

 

 

Las Bolsas no reflejan tendencia definida. A la desaceleración económica de los países tracciónadores se le agrega la indefinición del precio del petróleo que contribuye a  confundir al sector, pero que finalmente su menor incidencia en los costos industriales redundará a favor de la recuperación económica.

En nuestro país la atención esta centrada en las próximas elecciones presidenciales por lo que el Ejercicio Económico 2015 deberá tomarse como de transición. Quien traspase honorablemente este “RubicoN” tendrá grandes  posibilidades hacia el futuro. Ello es así por cuanto cualquiera de los precandidatos que triunfe deberá necesariamente implementar medidas que nos saquen de  esta paralización económica y aislamiento mundial.

De allí que los resultados positivos adquieran mayor relevancia, aunque puedan ser menos significativos a los registrados anteriormente. Este es el caso de Telecom. Con un análisis frio de los números, no habría motivos para un gran festejo. En 6 meses ganó 1956 millones con 969 millones de Capital. Pero habiendo invertido en el semestre 4690 millones de los cuales 2256 millones corresponden al pago de la  licencia de 4G, en el actual contexto económico es un resultado aprobado +. Este nuevo servicio más la autorización del Gobierno para participar del negocio audiovisual (televisión por cable), aseguran un futuro promisorio.

Las entidades financieras serán fundamentales en este nuevo esquema por lo que los resultados actuales, se potencian.

GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA ganó en 6 meses 1907 millones con capital de 1300,3 millones y BANCO PATAGONIA en el  mismo periodo ganó 1067, 6 millones con Capital de 719,3 millones, adeudando un dividendo en efectivo de 146% . La valorización de las tendencias de títulos públicos sostendrán sus resultados. Llama la atención la demora del Banco Central en aprobar la distribución de los dividendos bancarios teniendo en cuenta que la ANSES, a través de su gran tenencia es uno de los grandes beneficiados.

Entre las acciones de Panel General confirmó su buena marcha CONCESIONARIA OESTE con una utilidad de  37,6 millones en 6 meses con 160 millones de capital. Las tarifas de peaje se actualizan periódicamente y la ampliación de la Avda. Gral. Paz, ejecutada junto a AUSOL, facilitan su operatividad. Seguramente repetirá sus buenos dividendos en efectivo por su holgada liquidez.

En momentos difíciles para el sector, SEMINO se recuperó de sus perdidas iniciales y finalizo el Ejercicio con una utilidad de 12.6millones con Capital de 124, 9 millones. Si bien se esperaba una mayor utilidad  y un dividendo en efectivo aunque sea mínimo, los últimos trimestres fueron positivos por lo que se espera que continuará  en esa línea. Propone la distribución del 9,7 % en acciones. Lo mas interesante y sugestivo es la continua e importante demanda  de acciones que existe en su plaza, que tiene un piso sólido en $ 1,70.

Héctor Tavares

 

3.509 comentarios

  1. observador

    Razones para una suba:
    a) Recomendacion de compra desde el exterior
    b) Buenas noticias el domingo.
    c) Mejores noticias en octubre.
    d) Final del nacionalsocialismo kirchnerista
    e) Todas
    f) Ninguna
    Seguramente el maestro Tavares, sabe donde esta verdad de una suba que podría ser fiesta si los numeros el domingo acompañan. No creer en las encuestas.

  2. Historico

    Me permito opinar sobre el de Metrogas: de terror!!! Y con patrimonio negativo.
    Preocupantes también los importantes números en rojo de CARBOCLOR que representan más del 15% del patrimonio.
    No me explico la suba de hoy. Habrá algo que desconocemos?

  3. JAVIER AGUIRRE

    Carboclor: creo que compro parte de la empresa el Gerente de Puente , Federico Tomasevich, yo tambien me pregunto ¿habra algo que desconocemos?

  4. Libertad e Igualdad

    El domingo. Primera batalla entre el narcoestado y la República. Al salir del cuarto oscuro, lo importante, es poder ver a los ojos a nuestros hijos.

  5. marcegem

    Histórico y Javier, Morgan Stanley recomendó comprar bonos y Bancos Argentinos ayer al mediodía, también Pampa, pero en otras épocas esas recomendaciones las hacían para descargar papeles, quizás esta vez sea distinto (no creo que tengan muchos papeles argentos, jeje)

  6. Augusto

    Coincido con tu comentario marcegem, en este caso MS tiene participación en los papeles que esta recomendando. En la pag 36 del informe aparece. Tiene participación solo en esos papeles. Lo leí en otro foro.

  7. Martin

    Hay que tener MEMORIA por principios del 2011 Morgan Stanley tambien recomendo……..vean el resultado.

    Yo jamas compraria algo que recomiendan esos “gurus financieros” como el Deutsche Bank se dan el lujo de dar pronosticos, hacer proyecciones y ellos tienen un grado de apalancamiento insostenible desde todo punto de vista. El precio de la accion lo dice todo

    Al margen de eso, estoy viendo los resultados de las PASO y los numeros pueden caerle bien al mercado, no hay tanta diferencia entre Scioli y Macri y se puede pensar en un ballotage. Algo muy esperado por el mercado, puede haber festejo bursatil. Pero en mi opinion finalmente gana Scioli. Por ahora estoy feliz de estar fuera del mercado

    De lo que no se habla en la city porteña es que el petroleo se esta derrumbando, que a China lo estan sosteniendo estatalmente para que su bolsa no se termine de hacer pedazos. Que Europa esta achicando, que Grecia va seguir sin crecer y sin pagar. No veo grandes diferencias con la crisis financiera del 2008 y mas alla del resultado electoral, esa crisis no va a terminar pegando a nosotros, son los paises emergentes los que mas van a sufrir. Que gane Scioli o Macri es secundario, en el fondo economicamente haran lo mismo, no hace que las tarifas aumenten un 1000% para que las acciones de las electricas suban, con que lo hagan un 30% subirian igual

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  99. The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

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  103. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

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