Hay que olvidarse del dia a dia -la nota de la semana-

 

untitled

El problema de Grecia se tensa ante el “juego de pinzas” que practican los participantes. Postergar la solución para después del referéndum es una decisión, cunado menos, peligrosa, pero positiva si la mayoría se decide por lo menos controvertido. Lo ideal seria un nuevo salvataje en condiciones ventajosas, pero con controles estrictos y cumplimiento posible. En nuestro mercado debemos olvidarnos del “día a día” pues prevalece la idea de esperar “toma de decisiones” en función del resultado electoral y sus primeras orientaciones. Ello, por cuanto el resultado electoral no esta definido a pesar  del esfuerzo estratégico de cada contendiente por enfatiza sobre su triunfo.

Tampoco se pueden esperar definiciones sobre temas “calientes” que alteren prematuramente la voluntad electoral. No hay más Remedio que esperar o arriesgar conclusiones sobre análisis de hechos o expresiones fallidas.

La actitud errática del mercado sirve para verificar la verdadera firmeza de algunas especies a través de la observación de su volumen, la resistencia a la baja y el poder de reacción ante algún acontecimiento favorable del mercado. Lo que es indudable es que los lineamientos económicos actuales son insostenibles en el tiempo por lo que se hace necesario un “prolijamiento”. En ese sentido la idea de un sinceramiento en el valor del dólar parece prevalecer. De allí la oportunidad que puede ofrecer una excesiva caída de empresas exportadoras o con inversiones en el exterior. ALUAR es un fiel exponente que en las condiciones actuales presentó un 3º trimestre con utilidades por 1099.5 millones (457 millones en 2014) con capital de 2800 millones. Otro líder es SIDERAR que, a pesar de la menor producción de automotores, en el 1º trimestre ganó 703, 1 mill (888.2 millones en 2014) con capital de 4500 millones.

El caso de CONSULTATIO es especial por tener inversores en EE. UU y URUGUAY, además de tenencia de moneda extranjera- En 3 meses gano 170, 5 mill (196, 2 mill en 2014) con  capital de 680.3 millones. En su plaza la demanda brilla por su ausencia pese a las bondades de la empresa.  En momentos en que el accionista mayoritario quiere colocar papeles mediante ADR a inversores calificadores, su cotización no es defendida pese a su importante caída. ¿Y si se deciden a comprar acciones propias teniendo en cuenta la actual coyuntura?. También es muy particular la situación de SAN MIGUEL ante la posibilidad que en EE. UU rehabiliten la importación  de limones, así como la de QUICKFOOD que se ve beneficiada con la eliminación de la prohibición de importar carne vacuna de Argentina a EE. UU. La firmeza de PESA, además de una mejor performance en el rubro gas, se fundamenta en la decisión de PETROBRAS BRASIL de reducir su expansión en u$S 76.000 millones y desinvertir activos por u$S15.100 millones. Se especula que en  la desinversión se incluya la venta de PESA a una empresa extranjera.

Héctor Tavares

 

 

 

4.121 comentarios

  1. Carlos

    Hola Hèctor,con respecto a Consultatio me parece que el minorìsta se sintiò dolido por los exiguos dividendos pagados por la companìa ya que esperaban un poco mas teniendo en cta la ganancia de la Companìa.Costantini fue pequeño alguna vez y sabe lo que siente el minorista.Aclaro que no tengo papeles de esta pero los supe tener.
    Por otra parte como ves a Bco.Frances y Oeste.Abz,Carlos

  2. Tavares
    Author

    Estimado Carlos: Banco Francés se valorizó mucho pero sigue firme acá y el ADR. Como banco para inversión prefiero el Patagonia que debe 145% en efectivo. Francés es un papel ideal para lanzar ya que generalmente se obtiene buena tasa.
    Oeste cierra un buen ejercicio y como es histórico dará un interesante dividendo en efectivo. Sus amortizaciones son altas, pero son contables y no significan una salida de efectivo. Me gusta mucho

  3. jose

    Hola, me parece que las eléctricas fundamentalmente TRANS y CECO y la
    gasífera METRO están a precio de regalo, tonta comparación pero un bon o bon vale 3.-pesos.

  4. Martin

    Yo lo que veo es que esta bajando nuevamente el petroleo y empresas como TS pueden tener un precio mas tentador del que tienen hoy. Lo mismo para APBR. Por mi parte sigo mirando todos los dias porque este mercado puede dar mejores precios y llegado el momento hay que aprovecharlos y cargar todo lo posible de esas empresas, que sabemos son peso pesado y nunca defraudan

  5. chori trader

    Holaa todos. Pasaron cerca de 15 ruedas desde mi ultimo comentario. 11/6. Por entonces entendía que rueda tras rueda nos dirigimos como el titanic al iceberg. Cuando muchos me preguntaban y ahora como sigue todo esto Chori?
    Yo respondía y lo sigo haciendo ahora… con fe y con esperanza. Los pisos están a la vista. Eso si mucho humo en el ambiente no nos permite ver la costa. El que se perdió la olita, que no se aflija todavía hay tiempo. Es mas yo aun esperaría. Para aquellos descreídos (lucas,Germán) les mando mis saludos y les reitero que la ola va y viene pero el iceberg ya toco a Pamp.come.edn. tgs.tgn.trans. no me equivoque. Ojo que a ggal le falta.la veo mas larga la vela.
    Prohibido Olvidar al dolar ahorro.
    CHORi TRADER

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  6. tuco

    Estimado Tavares, tengo 70.000 pesos para invertir en corto, osea quiero timbearlo, el largo plazo no es recomendable en estos momentos, además usaría el dinero ganado para las vacaciones de invierno.esperó no ofenderlo.
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