HAY QUE BARAJAR Y DAR DE NUEVO-la nota de la semana-.

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El mercado bursátil local no fue ajeno al estupor que produjo la muerte del Dr. Alberto Nisman. El conocimiento de esta infausta noticia coincidió con un feriado en Estados Unidos, por lo que el volumen negociado disminuyó sensiblemente en el comienzo de la semana. A partir del  martes, el comportamiento de los ADR se correlacionó con la evolución de las principales plazas mundiales. Los temas internacionales pasaban por el precio del petróleo que soportó una estimación del PBI de China de más del 7%, que los expertos consideraron como una preocupante desaceleración.

Volviendo al ámbito local, se ratifica la impresión que comienza a moverse el panel general, aprovechando los precios irrisorios. Por otra parte, se han detectado que fondos internacionales comienzan a reunirse con Casas de Bolsa para comenzar a tantear el panorama. A medida que se acerca la fecha del cambio de gobierno (y se supone de política económica) hay más interesados en tomar posiciones en empresas con gran infraestructura y capitalización bursátil absolutamente irrelevante. Este análisis tiene más ponderación que los actuales PER ya que se especula como mayor racionalidad económica a partir de 2016.

Luego de la muerte del fiscal Nisman, no son pocos los analistas que esperan nuevas encuestas sobre  los eventuales candidatos a las elecciones del corriente año.

En cuanto a papeles, se verifica  inusual firmeza en los ADR de Banco Francés, aún considerando que fue de los más rendidores en 2014. A riesgo de ser reiterativos, y dentro del mismo sector bancario, cabe recordar el fuerte atraso de Banco Santander Río y de Banco Patagonia respecto a sus colegas, por no pertenecer al panel líder ni tener ADRs. No sorprendería que en el futuro,  se canjeen acciones del Santander Río por el Santander, aunque por ahora es sólo una especulación a partir de rumores sobre el desinterés del banco local en defender la cotización de su acción.

En el Panel líder durante la última semana se verificó un incremento en el volumen negociado de Sociedad Comercial del Plata, mucho más firme que en semanas anteriores.

En el Panel general, más compradores en plazas muy atrasadas y hasta hace poco desinteresadas, como Rigolleau , Juan Minetti y Consultatio.

Héctor Tavares

2.069 comentarios

  1. Anibal Gorostiaga

    Coincido con las atrasadas nombradas, que comienzan a recuperar a partir de los futuros balances que van a entrar.

  2. FEDERICO

    Maestro, primero gracias por sus invalorables aportes cotidianos. Le pregunto, cuando estima que llegaran los buenos vientos para esta CELU? La tengo en cartera hace unos meses y mirando su corte semestral tambien observa buenas perspectivas.. Está teniendo muy poco volumen ultimamente, faltara mucho para que el mercado considere esta mejoria en la gestion de la firma?

  3. mariano

    Buen dia hector. Q opinion tiene sobre ceco2. Siempre lo leo y nunca lei una opinion sobre esta accion. Abrazo y desde ya muchas gracias

  4. Tavares
    Author

    Ceco me gusta y anda bien. Celu está barata. Sorprendió gratamente su último trimestral. No tengo referencias sobre su nuevo grupo de control. En el líder, a mediano plazo me gustan los bancos.

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