GRAN REACCION DE LOS BONOS

 

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Para todos los operadores del mercado, fue una gran sorpresa la fortísima revalorización de los activos argentinos durante la semana a pesar de no haber ninguna noticia en concreto que lo justifique. Lo más llamativo vino del lado de las acciones, por ser las que más rápido reaccionan, pero no tardó en viralizarse a los títulos públicos e incluso a la moneda nacional (cayeron todas las cotizaciones del dólar, excepto el oficial). Financieramente, mayor precio de los títulos públicos implica un menor rendimiento “a finish” y viceversa. De modo que lo que se observó es una caída en los rendimientos de los títulos públicos, prácticamente en todos los tipos y categorías (ajusten en dólares, por tasa Badlar, por CER o dólar oficial “dólar-link”).

Para el inversor en títulos hay dos maneras básicas de operar. Por un lado, se puede elegir comprar un bono para permanecer con él hasta su vencimiento total y cobrar todos los servicios intermedios. En ese caso, cuando se compra a un determinado rendimiento, el inversor lo termina obteniendo efectivamente siempre que el emisor pague en tiempo y forma. Es decir que si se invierte en un Boden 2015 al 7,5% anual en dólares y uno lo mantiene hasta cobrarlo a su vencimiento en octubre 2015 se habrá obtenido efectivamente ese rendimiento, independientemente de cuánto vaya cotizando día tras día el título en el mercado. Por otro lado, el inversor puede apostar a los movimientos diarios de precio/rendimiento del título e ir fluctuando de bono en bono para tratar de mejorar la ganancia.

Los bonos con vencimientos cortos son ideales para el inversor que quiere obtener un rendimiento asegurado en el tiempo, ya que si el precio de mercado no acompaña las expectativas en última instancia el título finalmente se cobra. Por el contrario, para realizar “apuestas” (anticiparse a los ciclos de humor de los mercados) los títulos más largos son los que tienen las reacciones más ampulosas. Para ejemplificar la magnitud de este efecto, si se supone que el riesgo soberano va a bajar en el 2016 y todos los bonos reducirán en 1% su rendimiento o tasa interna de retorno, ello implicaría que el Bonar X (bono corto) subirá de precio un 1% en dólares, mientras que el Discount en dólares (bono largo) lo hará en un 7,5% en dólares.

Hoy en día el mercado está realizando fuertes apuestas en los distintos tipos de bonos en vistas del cambio de administración para el 2016. Los rendimientos se han reducido y los tenedores de títulos largos se han visto más beneficiados que los de títulos cortos. La gran pregunta para cualquier inversor es cuáles son los títulos con mayor recorrido alcista y que tengan una probabilidad de ocurrencia de un escenario positivo más alto. También hay que tener en cuenta que –del mismo modo- si no hay cambios sustanciales y el mercado se defrauda, los bonos que más caerán son los largos, mientras que los bonos cortos también caerán. Pero, nuevamente, si se deciden mantenerlos el inversor mantendría el rendimiento inicial al que invirtió.

Por ello es prudente para los inversores cautelosos buscar bonos cortos con rendimientos altos como el BPMD (dólares), el NF18 (CER) o el PMD18 (dólar link). Por el contrario, aquellos con mayor apetito de rentabilidad pueden buscar bonos como el DICA (dólares), el CUAP (CER) o el BDC20 (dólar link).

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 1.3.2015

Para todos los operadores del mercado, fue una gran sorpresa la fortísima revalorización de los activos argentinos durante la semana a pesar de no haber ninguna noticia en concreto que lo justifique. Lo más llamativo vino del lado de las acciones, por ser las que más rápido reaccionan, pero no tardó en viralizarse a los títulos públicos e incluso a la moneda nacional (cayeron todas las cotizaciones del dólar, excepto el oficial). Financieramente, mayor precio de los títulos públicos implica un menor rendimiento “a finish” y viceversa. De modo que lo que se observó es una caída en los rendimientos de los títulos públicos, prácticamente en todos los tipos y categorías (ajusten en dólares, por tasa Badlar, por CER o dólar oficial “dólar-link”).

Para el inversor en títulos hay dos maneras básicas de operar. Por un lado, se puede elegir comprar un bono para permanecer con él hasta su vencimiento total y cobrar todos los servicios intermedios. En ese caso, cuando se compra a un determinado rendimiento, el inversor lo termina obteniendo efectivamente siempre que el emisor pague en tiempo y forma. Es decir que si se invierte en un Boden 2015 al 7,5% anual en dólares y uno lo mantiene hasta cobrarlo a su vencimiento en octubre 2015 se habrá obtenido efectivamente ese rendimiento, independientemente de cuánto vaya cotizando día tras día el título en el mercado. Por otro lado, el inversor puede apostar a los movimientos diarios de precio/rendimiento del título e ir fluctuando de bono en bono para tratar de mejorar la ganancia.

Los bonos con vencimientos cortos son ideales para el inversor que quiere obtener un rendimiento asegurado en el tiempo, ya que si el precio de mercado no acompaña las expectativas en última instancia el título finalmente se cobra. Por el contrario, para realizar “apuestas” (anticiparse a los ciclos de humor de los mercados) los títulos más largos son los que tienen las reacciones más ampulosas. Para ejemplificar la magnitud de este efecto, si se supone que el riesgo soberano va a bajar en el 2016 y todos los bonos reducirán en 1% su rendimiento o tasa interna de retorno, ello implicaría que el Bonar X (bono corto) subirá de precio un 1% en dólares, mientras que el Discount en dólares (bono largo) lo hará en un 7,5% en dólares.

Hoy en día el mercado está realizando fuertes apuestas en los distintos tipos de bonos en vistas del cambio de administración para el 2016. Los rendimientos se han reducido y los tenedores de títulos largos se han visto más beneficiados que los de títulos cortos. La gran pregunta para cualquier inversor es cuáles son los títulos con mayor recorrido alcista y que tengan una probabilidad de ocurrencia de un escenario positivo más alto. También hay que tener en cuenta que –del mismo modo- si no hay cambios sustanciales y el mercado se defrauda, los bonos que más caerán son los largos, mientras que los bonos cortos también caerán. Pero, nuevamente, si se deciden mantenerlos el inversor mantendría el rendimiento inicial al que invirtió.

Por ello es prudente para los inversores cautelosos buscar bonos cortos con rendimientos altos como el BPMD (dólares), el NF18 (CER) o el PMD18 (dólar link). Por el contrario, aquellos con mayor apetito de rentabilidad pueden buscar bonos como el DICA (dólares), el CUAP (CER) o el BDC20 (dólar link).

 

5.206 comentarios

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