GANADORES Y PERDEDORES 2016, por Eduardo Cardenal

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Relevamiento de variables del 2016

1er puesto:      Índice Merval (acciones)
44,90%

2do puesto:     Índice de Precios CABA                              41,41%

3er puesto:      Bonos atados a inflación (DICP)                  40,67%

4to puesto:      Bonos “dólar-linked” (AM18)                      37,63%

5to puesto:      Letras del Banco Central 35 días                  36,56%

6to puesto:      Bonos Largos en USD (DICA)                     26,34%

7mo puesto:    Dólares           (Com “A” 3500)                    21,25%

Si lo separamos por semestres, en el primero la inflación en la CABA no fue
compensada por ningún índice, mientras que esto se revirtió a lo largo del
segundo semestre en el que quedó relegada al quinto puesto. En el promedio
del año ponderó segunda.

El dólar fue la apuesta perdedora para el 2016, tanto en el primero como en
el segundo semestre. Solamente en éste último pudo ser una mejor inversión
que el DICA (bono largo en dólares), que tras la victoria de Donald Trump
fue duramente castigado, recuperándose parcialmente recién hacia fin de año.

Para el 2017 algunas cuestiones cambiarían. No se estaría partiendo de un
fin de año con fuerte reacomodamiento de variables (dólar, precios
regulados) y habría un índice de precios relativamente confiable como para
tener una vara de medición adecuada.

En cuanto a expectativas, se espera un primer semestre con dólar tranquilo,
quizás más inestable en el segundo, llegando a un 15%/20% en el año. La
inflación se ubicaría entre niveles del 17% (techo de expectativa del Banco
Central) y del 25% (consultoras más pesimistas). El crecimiento económico
pareciera tener un consenso de una tibia recuperación, alrededor del 2,5%.

Muy feliz 2017 para todos.

914 comentarios

  1. pablo

    Gracias por los valiosos aportes del Maestro, Eduardo, así como también Histórico, Barandista, Javier, el otro Javier, Mat, Rubén, Robi, Iceman, Vicario, Horacio, Viento, Petysuar, Pepe, Maverick, Iceman, Sirthomas y resto de los foristas. Los leo siempre y he aprendido mucho. Les deseo un gran año para todos, lo mejor para el 2017!!

  2. Silvio

    Estimados foristas, Dr Tavares y Cardenal, los leo desde hace 4 meses y solo 6 meses que ingresé a éste maravilloso y desafiante mundo de las inversiones, he aprendido y espero continuar haciéndolo de cada uno de Uds, es mi anhelo que la vida de cada Argentino mejore en todo sentido , si todos crecemos el país crece. Muchas gracias a todos y que el 2017 los reciba con muchos triunfos. Silvio- Tierra del Fuego

  3. Histórico

    Año 2017: mercado bursátil argentino debería pasar de fronterizo a emergente con lo que ello significa, la posibilidad de muchos fondos de inversión del exterior de invertir en nuestro mercado.
    Se puede llegar a producir un cuello de botella y burbuja bursátil porque habría más dólares para invertir en nuestro mercado que oferta de papeles disponibles.
    Segundo punto a favor: con 90.000 millones de dólares blanqueados a la fecha más los que puedan ingresar hasta marzo, con que solamente un 2% se decida invertir el dinero blanqueado en acciones tendríamos la importante suma de u$s 1.800 millones para volcarse a nuestro mercado.
    Creo que puede ser un año muy auspicioso para nuestra bolsa.
    Además en marzo comienza a funcionar el BYMA que debería ser muy beneficioso para el desarrollo de nuestro mercado de capitales.

  4. Viento Salvaje

    En el artículo anterior un colega le criticaba al otro que el AT daba señal de compra y no pudo predecir lo de CARC y este le contestó que no hay ningún sistema que puede predecir una quiebra.
    No comparto esto último porque sí hay indicadores de probables problemas. De hecho CARC para pedir su concurso tiene que acreditarle al juez que está en estado de cesación de pagos y un elemento fundamental es el último balance. Al analizarlo, arden lo ojos porque los n° son de terror: En el último trimestre ya el margen bruto da negativo lo que arrastra al operativo y al neto. Su PN también es negativo y en el ejercicio lleva una caída del 213%. Incluso en las conclusiones se hace referencia al riesgo de que la empresa no pueda seguir en funcionamiento.
    Ojo estoy hablando de indicadores o señales que dan probabilidades a que un acontecimiento ocurra, no de dar por hecho que una Cía va a pedir su quiebra y en que día.
    Mi humilde opinión es que seas cultor o no del AT, nunca hay que dejar de mirar el balance de la Cía donde se tiene el capital invertido sobre todo si la CNV mira para otro lado (tengo entendido que en una época no permitía que siga operando a quien tenía PN negativo)

    • Fer

      Por AT Carboclor el 10 de noviembre dio una señal de venta por gráfico semanal clarísima y aún no estaba ni cerca de dar señal de compra, al que lo agarró comprado fue por tirar una ficha a su posible venta, apostó a un hecho fundamental que no se dio, al contrario se dio justo lo opuesto.

      • Viento Salvaje

        El pedido de concurso preventivo es del 28/12 y vos comentas que el 10/11 dió señal de venta, son muchos días de diferencia Fer. Yo simplemente transcribí lo que dijo un colega que critica que hubiera señal de compra en los días previos.
        El que se quedó comprado especulando con una venta, lo hizo por expectativa no por fundamentos.
        Entiendo por AF entre otras cosas principalmente el análisis de los indicadores patrimoniales y ratios del mercado y estos si claramente señalaban un riesgo muy alto, lo que lamentablemente sucedió

        • Fer

          No, ni hablar, solo decía lo del AT, aca no se puede subir un gráfico, pero si mirás el grafico semanal, era para huir de mediano plazo, parecido a lo que hizo Mirgor alla arriba, el gráfico semanal permite ver eso, es un gráfico de mediano plazo, fue la clásica suba para enchufar todos los papeles bien arriba, a vista de los acontecimientos, el gráfico queda de testigo, el famoso “se vende para arriba”

  5. Histórico

    Es así Viento Salvaje, el análisis fundamental es lo principal y el AT forma parte de lo accesorio que, como bien dijo el experimentado Jorge, se reemplaza con el olfato de la experiencia y los años de mercado.
    En empresas como CARC, PSUR y POLLEDO creo que el AT está de más ya que son empresas sin destino.

  6. SIRTHOMASMORE

    2017. Copio del Cronista: “Las acciones en 2016 fueron uno de los instrumentos que dejaron mejores ganancias. En 2017 también seguirán siendo atractivas en un contexto donde la economía se espera vuelva a crecer. “Ante la expectativa de una mayor actividad económica para el 2017, los sectores más sensibles, que deberían integrar las carteras, serían bancos (Galicia, Macro), energéticas (Pampa) y siderúrgicas (Siderar)”, indicó Ber. Los sectores agrícolas con las acciones de Cresud a la cabeza, construcción e inmobiliario con Consultatio e IRSA; petrolero con TS, Petrobras e YPF y el energético con Pampa, son activos recomendados por Marull.” ¿Qué dicen los colegas? A mi, me gusta lo que aconsejan.

  7. SIRTHOMASMORE, me parece bueno el comentario y te cuento que vez pasada(algo mas de 1 semana, no recuerdo si era en el cronista) leia en un diario la declaración jurada de un ministro del gobierno y entre las acciones que declaraba tenia los bancos que nombras. Ahora también ´puede ser que la declaración sea del año pasado, eso no lo sé. Eso ya lo dejo para los contadores del foro entre los cuales resalto al maestro Héctor.

    Sds

  8. SIRTHOMASMORE

    2017. “En definitiva, las empresas argentinas que cotizan en la Bolsa local presentan un alto potencial alcista si se hace una proyección de doce meses, aunque sin lugar a dudas, la selectividad de cada inversor al momento de seleccionar los activos financieros será un punto vital que terminará por definir el éxito de cada portafolio de inversión a lo largo del año.” Margen C, la conclusion del Inf que mandaste, muy bueno, parece que los locos que jodemos con la bolsa, no estamos errados. Carlitos70, LOS BCOS, atrasados, o muy baratos. Creo que es oportunidad de compra, pero para esperar por largo rato. Felicidades para los amigos del foro.

  9. Reich

    Son de terror y causan mucha gracias algunos especialistas y “señores” de fortuna o seudoeconomistas que recomiendan papeles o comparten con la gente sus carteras. Como dice un periodista K “Te toman por bolu*…”
    Por ejemplo, recomiendan invertir en Cresud, en 2016 subió 38%, en 2015 42% y en 2014 41%. De las bancarias hablan de GGAL en el 2016 aumentó apenas 16,03% (menos que un plazo fijo). Siempre hablan de Siderar, de su fortaleza, el año pasado alcanzó un 9,10 y el anteaño 45,30% (lamentable). De Consultatio, todo porque en el 2014 con 230% fue de las mejores, pero no repitió más esa labor, en 2015 53,75% y el 2016 15,90%. (Constantini empoming). IRSA, que tristeza. YPF deprimente 17,75% arriba en el 2016. Hasta recomiendan PSUR, que ni siquiera es escolazo o timba, como era CARC, la venezolana termina igual a pesar de que tiene un gobierno atras, (no olvidar que CARC también tiene al gobierno uruguayo). Son empomadores profesionales. El único que recomienda con acierto, honestidad y desinterés es el Maestro, a él sí le prestó verdadera atención y la mayoría de las veces sigo sus pronósticos, a quien agradezco y felicito por sus conocimientos y honestidad intelectual. Augurios en este 2017 al Maestro y a todos los foristas.

  10. SIRTHOMASMORE

    CRES y GGAL. Comparto, totalmente, Reich, fogoneadas siempre por los mismos atorrantes. Las tuve. Lo de ERAR, es discutible. Me fue muy bien en 2014 y 2015. Esta planchada, pero es para tenerla en cartera bien diversificada. Exitos, hoy, colega.

  11. Jorge

    Yo cuando dije que cresud hace 10 años que vale 15 dólares e invitó a ver a fin del 2017 yo voy cresud Reich vos elegí otra y final vemos nunca dije que compraran ninguna solo me referí a todos aquellos que supongo de buena fe han dado sus carteras y preferencias y a mi me llamo la atención a que nadie la nombrará.ahora para completar que debería ser teñida en cuenta hay que saber que es la cabeza del holding que los campos los tiene valuados siete veces menos de lo que valen.esa empresa que compro muy barata en Israel ha ido pagando la deu y en algún lado leí que había vendido una parte.

  12. Jorge

    Tampoco se bien si te referías a mi .y no me compares con ningún k que con un poco de suerte y como presidenta de la nación es también jefe de las fuerzas armadas y si se llega a comprobar que estubo haciendo cosas con los iraníes en contra de la nación será condenada a peña de muerte que existe en el código penal por traicion a la patria y conmutada la pena por el actual presidente a cualquier otro que pueda estar en ese cargo cuando termine ese juicio que como cualquiera puede imaginar llevara mucho pero muchos años y terminará con un fallo de la Corte suprema.Estoy seguro que yo no lo voy a ver .

  13. It was Bourdain’s best show in a while, and definitely the best segment you’ve done with him since the French Laundry episode of A Cook’s Tour.While it was entertaining, I’m not sure we should be applauding Chef Pardus’ daughter too much. Many of us were brought up in the era that children should be respectful to their elders, and she failed in that regard. She was cute, though. And it was absolutely classic when she outed her father for &##ga0;h2tin2&88221; Emeril.

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