FINAL DE UNA EPOCA

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Finalmente, la promesa de campaña de Mauricio Macri terminó cumpliéndose al quinto día de mandato presidencial. En una jornada expectante, el mercado de cambios fue accesible para todo mayorista, mientras que los minoristas debieron esperar porque las casas de cambios y bancos tenían los sistemas adecuados a la vieja normativa. En las jornadas previas al anuncio del fin del cepo la divisa norteamericana venía retrocediendo en los mercados legales implícitos de la bolsa: dólar MEP y dólar contado con liqui. Con el tiempo, estos términos desaparecerán del léxico común de los argentinos.

La unificación cambiaria supone un nuevo paradigma para los bonos “dólar-link”. La causa salta a la vista: son títulos que se desempeñarán como bonos en dólares, por más que sean pagados en pesos al cambio oficial. Para el inversor minorista esta conversión incluso puede ser beneficiosa, ya que permite una más fácil reinversión de los cupones cobrados. Por supuesto, es de esperar que, al menos por un tiempo, a los “dólar-link” se les exija un rendimiento superior a los instrumentos en dólar puro por el temor que en algún momento lejano se vuelva a un régimen de control de cambios.

Sin embargo, actualmente estos títulos representan una oportunidad para los inversores minoristas. La misma viene dada por la fuerte venta que vienen realizando los fondos comunes de inversión, que son los inversores institucionales con más peso en el mercado bursátil en la actualidad. Estos inversores habían recibido aportes esperando el momento devaluatorio y los mismos se armaron de liquidez vendiendo activos para afrontar rescates. Por ello, si tomamos los nuevos tipos de cambio de referencia, es posible encontrar importantes rendimientos en dólares en estos títulos, que en el corto plazo deberían terminar convergiendo a la curva de dólares “puros” aunque con un rendimiento un poco superior. En ese contexto los títulos provinciales de mediano plazo como el NDG21 (Provincia de Neuquén) ofrecen rendimientos del orden del 16% en dólares. Los títulos más cortos ofrecen rendimientos superiores, pero están sometidos a la evolución del tipo de cambio en los primeros meses del año, que podría incluso ser negativo.

Del lado del resto de los bonos, los ajustables por CER (índice vinculado a la inflación) mantuvieron cierta demanda, aunque no es recomendable para el inversor minorista debido a la falta de certezas de cuándo el Indec podrá publicar índices razonables de inflación. El mercado espera que, mientras tanto, se publique un índice compendio de indicadores provinciales debido a la falta de datos del mayor instituto de estadísticas. También se mostraron menos demandados los bonos con interés variable en pesos al convalidarse por el mercado tasas de interés algo inferiores a las esperadas inicialmente debido al excedente de pesos. Finalmente, los bonos soberanos en dólares se mostraron firmes en la semana en su cotización en mercados internacionales por las mejores perspectivas de Argentina, si bien en la plaza local cotizaron más débiles por la fuerte caída del dólar bursátil.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 20.12.2015

8.154 comentarios

  1. Carlos Marina

    Buen dìa Hector,me podes decir que bonos en dòlares me conviene invertir unos dolares que tengo ahorrados.Abz,Carlos

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  336. Hello this is somewhat of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding knowledge so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

  337. I think this is one of the most important information for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But want to remark on few general things, The website style is perfect, the articles is really great : D. Good job, cheers

  338. I do not know if it’s just me or if perhaps everybody else encountering issues with your site. It appears as though some of the written text in your posts are running off the screen. Can somebody else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This could be a issue with my internet browser because I’ve had this happen before. Thank you

  339. It’s a shame you don’t have a donate button! I’d certainly donate to this fantastic blog! I suppose for now i’ll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to fresh updates and will share this site with my Facebook group. Talk soon!

  340. Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  341. Hey there! Would you mind if I share your blog with my myspace group? There’s a lot of people that I think would really appreciate your content. Please let me know. Thank you

  342. Greetings! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a collection of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us useful information to work on. You have done a outstanding job!

  343. We stumbled over here coming from a different web page and thought I may as well check things out. I like what I see so now i am following you. Look forward to looking at your web page yet again.

  344. Hi there! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had problems with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  345. With havin so much content and articles do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright infringement? My site has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my permission. Do you know any methods to help protect against content from being ripped off? I’d certainly appreciate it.

  346. Do you mind if I quote a few of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your blog? My website is in the very same niche as yours and my users would really benefit from some of the information you present here. Please let me know if this okay with you. Thanks!

  347. I am curious to find out what blog system you are using? I’m experiencing some small security issues with my latest blog and I’d like to find something more safe. Do you have any solutions?

  348. Hi! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I truly enjoy reading through your posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that cover the same subjects? Many thanks!

  349. When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Cheers!

  350. Have you ever thought about adding a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is important and everything. But think of if you added some great graphics or video clips to give your posts more, «pop»! Your content is excellent but with images and videos, this blog could definitely be one of the best in its niche. Amazing blog!

  351. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something informative to read?

  352. Hey I am so glad I found your website, I really found you by accident, while I was browsing on Aol for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say kudos for a incredible post and a all round thrilling blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read it all at the moment but I have saved it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the superb work.

  353. I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz respond as I’m looking to design my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. appreciate it

  354. Hi, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar one and i was just curious if you get a lot of spam remarks? If so how do you reduce it, any plugin or anything you can suggest? I get so much lately it’s driving me crazy so any help is very much appreciated.

  355. I am really enjoying the theme/design of your website. Do you ever run into any internet browser compatibility problems? A handful of my blog visitors have complained about my website not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Safari. Do you have any advice to help fix this problem?

  356. Do you mind if I quote a few of your articles as long as I provide credit and sources back to your weblog? My website is in the very same niche as yours and my users would genuinely benefit from some of the information you provide here. Please let me know if this ok with you. Appreciate it!

  357. Today, I went to the beach front with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!

  358. Good day! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Thanks!

  359. Howdy! Would you mind if I share your blog with my twitter group? There’s a lot of folks that I think would really appreciate your content. Please let me know. Thanks|

  360. Appreciating the dedication you put into your site and detailed information you present. It’s nice to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same out of date rehashed information. Wonderful read! I’ve saved your site and I’m including your RSS feeds to my Google account.|

  361. Hey there this is kinda of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding skills so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

  362. Hi I am so grateful I found your webpage, I really found you by error, while I was searching on Bing for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say many thanks for a tremendous post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to look over it all at the moment but I have book-marked it and also added your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read more, Please do keep up the great job.

  363. Greetings from California! I’m bored to tears at work so I decided to browse your blog on my iphone during lunch break. I enjoy the knowledge you present here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home. I’m surprised at how fast your blog loaded on my phone .. I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, very good blog!

  364. Hmm is anyone else having problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.

  365. Hello are using WordPress for your site platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and set up my own. Do you need any html coding knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!

  366. Hello! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My blog looks weird when browsing from my iphone. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to correct this issue. If you have any recommendations, please share. Thank you!

  367. Wonderful blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News. Do you have any suggestions on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Appreciate it

  368. Hey! Someone in my Facebook group shared this website with us so I came to check it out. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Superb blog and excellent design.

  369. I’m really loving the theme/design of your site. Do you ever run into any internet browser compatibility issues? A small number of my blog audience have complained about my blog not operating correctly in Explorer but looks great in Opera. Do you have any ideas to help fix this problem?

  370. Hey there! Do you know if they make any plugins to protect against hackers? I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard on. Any recommendations?

  371. Hi, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your blog in Firefox, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, very good blog!

  372. Have you ever considered publishing an ebook or guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog based upon on the same subjects you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my subscribers would value your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e-mail.

  373. Excellent read, I just passed this onto a friend who was doing a little research on that. And he just bought me lunch as I found it for him smile So let me rephrase that: Thank you for lunch! «No one can wear a mask for very long.» by Seneca.

  374. Hmm it appears like your blog ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I submitted and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog blogger but I’m still new to everything. Do you have any points for novice blog writers? I’d definitely appreciate it.

  375. Hi there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading this post reminds me of my good old room mate! He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this page to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!

  376. Please let me know if you’re looking for a article writer for your site. You have some really good posts and I feel I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d absolutely love to write some content for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please send me an email if interested. Kudos!

  377. My coder is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on a variety of websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform. I have heard good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress posts into it? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  378. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was wondering what all is needed to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet smart so