ES EL MOMENTO DE APROVECHAR PERLAS – la nota semanal

 

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La intención frustrada de rescatar anticipadamente o canjear el BODEN 15, al mismo tiempo que obtener fondos frescos (u$S 3000 millones) emitiendo BODEN 24 fue una buena idea para aliviar compromisos en 2015 y generar  confianza. Lamentablemente su diseño y ejecución estuvo a cargo de inexpertos con mucha soberbia y amarretismo. Lo menos que podrían haber hecho es solicitar asesoramiento a quienes conocen el negocio y abonar las correspondientes comisiones que hubieran sido mas económicas que el daño soportado. Todo canje implica “colocar una zanahoria delante” ofreciendo una ventaja para estimular la operación. ¿Cuál era el beneficio de resignar tres  puntos y una tasa del 7% por anticipar 10 meses el cobro? ¿Cuál el del canje si en el mercado se podía vender 2015 y comprar 2024 en mejores condiciones? Ni siquiera se tuvo la picardía de ofrecer un mejor rescate con la condición que el monto logrado se aplique a la suscripción de un nuevo 2024, con efecto neutro para las Reservas. Tampoco se previó “convencer” a los organismos y Bancos oficiales y particulares “amigos” a participar para mejorar la imagen. Todo este accionar que confirma la impericia del equipo económico, nos lleva a una conclusión mucho más seria. ¿No será que el Gobierno vendió anteriormente BODEN 15 para bajar el dólar “blue” y se quedó “sin municiones”?

Esta situación se da en medio de un contexto mundial muy especial en el que se mezclan la baja del petróleo con la desaceleración de la  economía CHINA, la crisis de RUSIA y VENEZUELA y las dudas sobre GRECIA y la recuperación de EUROPA. El dólar se convierte en refugio de valor y los países emergentes que ven bajar sus “ commodities” devalúan sus monedas para recuperar competitividad. La excepción es Argentina que insiste en mantener revaluada su moneda a contramano de la región. Este es el principal fundamento que esgrimen expertos bursátiles para invertir en activos argentinos (acciones) por cuanto de persistir este cuadro es inexorable un ajuste monetario mas temprano que tarde, lo que impactará positivamente en el valor de las acciones. Intentar nombres deviene en abstracto, porque inicialmente el ajuste de cotizaciones será global, especialmente en las lideres.

En el panel general se pueden conseguir “perlas” difícil de obtener en momentos de euforia. La distensión de las tirantes relaciones de EE. UU y CUBA, así como los esfuerzos de RUSIA para defender su moneda y las intenciones de la FED para no apurar la suba de tasas, contribuyen a la recuperación bursátil.

2.817 comentarios

  1. Tati Tossetti

    Las perlitas supongo que son Consultatio, Banco Patagonia, Agrometal, Banco Río, Paty, Rigolleau, etc etc
    Estoy de acuerdo

  2. lemagiscien

    SAMI no tiene contras. Estructuralmente es la más sólida. Tiene riesgo argentino reducido por su presencia topográfica en Uruguay y Sudáfrica. Goza de un año formidable siendo top de hemisferio sur. Si Argentina devalúa el balance del 2015 explota. Si no devalúa continua ganando plata como lo hizo en su crecimiento a lo largo de la década anterior con dólar casi fijo, luego de pasar al 3:1. No depende del gobierno, no depende del petróleo. Depende de sí misma y por ahora es garante del éxito de su próximo ciclo. Los gerenciadores de la empresa suponen posible la apertura a los limones argentinos del mercado yanki para el 2015. Entre tanto SAMI llega a USA a través de sus clementinas uruguayas y “algo más”. Los derivados industriales que procesa con alto valor agregado son de bajo costo para sus grande clientes lo que asegura mercado para los mismos más allá de los sucesos mundiales.

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