EN LA BOLSA MANDAN LAS FUTURAS PASO -la nota de la semana-

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Las elecciones porteñas contribuyeron a confundir más el panorama nacional. Es que alentaron distintas interpretaciones, la mayoría de las cuales ensombrecían las posibilidades que habían motorizado la suba bursátil. Nuevos análisis, con unas PASO que plantearán una disputa pareja entre Sanz y Macri, cierto estancamiento de Scioli  y el avance de Massa hacen que prevalezca la cautela ante la ultrasensibilidad del mercado a los diarios acontecimientos.

La trepada del dólar ilegal, el reducido ingreso genuino de divisas, la difícil situación de las economías regionales, la elevada emisión monetaria acompañada de índices inflacionarios que, aunque decrecientes por falta de demanda, continúan siendo prohibitivos, confirman la idea que inexorablemente ante cualquier programa para revertir esta situación, el valor del dólar legal deberá ser actualizado.

Una buena decisión es observar en estos días de cotización errática la resistencia de la baja de las especies, ya que serán las primeras en reaccionar y beneficiarse con el “costo de oportunidad”.

En el “panel líder” se destacan ALUAR, COMERCIAL, SIDERAR, BCO. GALICIA y TENARIS que sorpresivamente ante su bajo precio presenta una demanda inesperada y sugestiva.

En el “panel general” hay de todo gusto. Desde AGROMETAL esperando un 2016 mas “pro-campo”, BCO. PATAGONIA  a la espera de la aprobación de su  dividendo en efectivo del 146%,  CONSULTATIO que se agote el vendedor puntual; FIPLASTO por la vuelta a resultados positivos; GAROVAGLIO, GRIMOLDI y LONGVIE por el éxito del “AHORA 12”; HOLCIM (Ex Minetti) por la repercusión de su nuevo conglomerado mundial; MOLINOS RIO y SEMINO por su capacidad exportadora y la ventaja de trigo interno a bajo precio; PESA por la reorientación de su actividad, OESTE por las mejores tarifas obtenidas; SAN MIGUEL por la reapertura de mercados externos. Comienza a mirarse con mejores ojos a RIGOLLEAU , que gana menos que el año pasado pero que sus  escasos minoristas esperan un 2016 “para alquilar balcones”. Y mientras tanto sigue pagando en cuotas su dividendo 2014. Además, la competencia externa en el rubro “bazar” es residual, habida cuenta la restricción a las importaciones por falta de divisas.

La gran incógnita la ofrecen las empresas de servicios eléctricos y gasíferos que dependen de una enorme decisión política y de negociados consensos.

Héctor Tavares

1.304 comentarios

  1. Javier Aguirre

    Muy buen análisis Sr Hector Tavares , leer sus comentarios me deja tranquilo ante estas turbulencias, y uno puede leer entre lineas que son oportunidades , si uno tiene paciencia y las aprovecha.

    Muchas gracias, nos vemos , Javier

  2. pascua

    Tuvimos que sitiar Rio Gallegos con la Gendarmería Nacional por que la efusividad de los cumpas ponía en riesgo la integridad de nuestra querida presidente

  3. MC

    Hector, como repercute en los bancos la medida recien anunciada de Vanoli de subir las tasas de los plazos fijos ? Entre los bancos, cual es el mas atractivo desde los fundamentals segun su punto de vista ?

    Muchas Gracias.

  4. observador

    La polarizacion es una construccion mediatica. Cada día todo mas parejo. Clase media huye del che Scioli abrazado al hermano del dictador. Dolar refugio. ¿Y si despues de las PASO, Vidal se baja en provincia con opo unida detras de Sola? Por las dudas, recuerde que primero lo leyo aca.

  5. Nicasio

    Héctor que pasa con el papel SCP q mete tanto volumen? Quien puede pagar y porque 3,49 una acción de una empresa quebrada, con infinitos quebrantos acumulados y un ceo q deja tanto w desear como soldati? Tanto puede valer el parque de la costa?
    No entiendo este mercado…

  6. Tavares
    Author

    MC: Tomaron una medida “ortodoxa” los doctores de la heterodoxia económica. Jugada para para el dólar blue. Pueden aumentar algo del depósitos pero pocos toman crédito en este contexto. Los bancos seguirán comprando bonos. Entre los bancos, prefiero al Patagonia que además debe 146% en efectivo.

  7. Tavares
    Author

    Nicasio: Comentamos que había un posible “overshooting” en SCP. No obstante, Soldatti ya fue y se trata de “otra empresa” con muy buen futuro. El gran volumen también tiene que ver que se acerca el vencimiento de opciones y hay presiones por ambos lados.

  8. Martin

    Viene complicado el tema, pero que lindo rally metieron algunas especies en estos dias. Lastima que entre timidamente, a pesar de que muchos me recomendaron arriesgar un poco mas.

    Ahora a esperar las Paso, para mi no tienen mucho secreto. Scioli manteniendo, Massa creciendo y Macri bajando, pero el mercado esta histerico con esto y es mejor mirar de afuera por el momento

    En TS hay que atarse las manos para no comprar…….

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