EN EL MES DEL DESCREME, OPORTUNIDADES DE COMPRA

 

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Nunca más cierto que “las alzas traen alzas y las bajas traen bajas”. Tal lo que está ocurriendo con las bolsas del mundo, incluida la Argentina aunque en este caso, además, por el mayor cepo para el “contado con liqui”. Al aparecer síntomas de desaceleración  en economías prevalentes, la toma de ganancias se generalizó.

Cresud tuvo pérdidas básicamente por cuestiones financieras en su Memoria a junio pasado. Sin embargo, llama la atención su escasa capitalización que oscila en algo más de 5000 millones con la cantidad de activos que posee. En efecto, tiene el 65% de IRSA (shopping, Hipotecario, etc.) campos en el país y países limítrofes y ahora tiende a incrementar su actividad ganadera, que oscila en 65.000 cabezas. Al igual que IRSA, recompra acciones propias y en los últimos dos ejercicios pagó $120 millones a sus accionistas. En término de dólares, su valorización es baja, en tanto que el precio de sus acciones tanto en la Argentina como en el Nasdaq están en niveles inferiores tomando en cuenta sus últimos dos años.

La que quedó nuevamente “a tiro” luego de una exagerada corrección es Inversora Juramento. La gran empresa agrícola-ganadera de Salta, ahora está instalando en la zona norte de Buenos Aires carnicerías “Premium” con productos envasados. Tiene financiamiento asegurado desde Banco Macro, ya que su controlante es el mismo.

Pasado este momento especial, “debe barajarse y dar de nuevo” teniendo en cuenta que los excesos alcistas se corrigen, pero también que los excesos bajistas se convierten en oportunidades. Especialmente si los fundamentos que posibilitaron el momento alcista (posible revalorización del dólar y futuras inversiones) se mantienen. Algunos optan por aprovechar la baja en los papeles de mayor mercado. Otros tienen la oportunidad de acceder más fácilmente a los de menor mercado, “figuritas difíciles” en época de bonanza bursátil.

Héctor Tavares, Clarín, IECO, 19.10.2014

 

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