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La semana pasada se vivió un despertar del dólar durante el jueves que fue seguido de una fuerte apreciación de la moneda norteamericana tras las elecciones de Gran Bretaña por la salida de la comunidad europea. El dólar y el oro subieron fuertemente de precio tanto el viernes como el lunes, lo que se tradujo en un alza en la divisa comparada contra el peso. Por el contrario, el resto de la semana, tras una recomposición de los mercados por la sobre exageración inicial del “brexit”, el dólar volvió a ubicarse en torno a los $ 15 en el mercado mayorista de cambios. La brusca volatilidad del dólar tuvo un impacto directo en el mercado de bonos, con un fuerte volumen de compra los días de suba y otro similar de venta para los días de baja del dólar. Naturalmente, los costos de cobertura frente a movimientos del tipo de cambio aumentaron los días de suba y se flexibilizaron en los días de baja.

El Banco Central, por su parte, no se inmutó demasiado por los vaivenes del tipo de cambio y continuó con su ritmo descendente de la tasa de interés de las Lebacs que licita todos los martes. El descenso continuó derivando liquidez de las letras al resto de los instrumentos en pesos y en particular se vieron con una fuerte demanda los bonos ajustables por CER. El PR13 constituye una buena alternativa de inversión conservadora para obtener una renta real mensual, mientras que los bonos más largos como el DICP y PARP son una alternativa para el inversor con mayor apetito de riesgo apostando a la reducción del nivel real que pagan estos bonos.

Por el lado de los bonos en dólares el Gobierno Nacional sorprendió con una licitación fugaz buscando colocar dos nuevos títulos a 12 años y 20 años con legislación Nueva York y rendimientos alrededor del 6,75% y 7,25% anual. Desgraciadamente para los inversores minoristas, el gobierno volvió a repetir el uso de un mínimo de láminas de 150.000, con lo cual la inversión mínima de estos papeles estará rondando los 150.000 dólares. Tanto el Gobierno Nacional como la Provincia de Buenos Aires vienen realizando colocaciones con esta metodología, especialmente pedida por los inversores externos para evitar la cotización minorista de papeles. En la bolsa se espera estén circulando para la semana que viene o la siguiente a más tardar.

La fuerte volatilidad del dólar encareció los instrumentos “dólar-linked”, y bonos provinciales como el NDG21 o los mendocinos PMD18 y PMO18 tienen poco atractivo para ofrecer al haber emparejado su rendimiento respecto de los soberanos en dólares. Los inversores más conservadores pueden salir de estos títulos e invertir en bonos un poco más largos pero de similar rendimiento, como el AO20 y AY24, o bien asumir un riesgo mayor apostando al PARY y PARA que aún mantienen un importante potencial de apreciación a medida que la economía argentina va normalizando sus cuentas nacionales.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 3.7.2016

 

2.980 comentarios

  1. De lo que pocas veces o quizás nunca se habla, y no faltan razones para ello, sin embargo en algún momento despiertan los más dormidos y aquí voy con CAPEX. Casi con pudor (habiendo hablado aqui de mi preferencia por las de gran volumen, etc./ pero bue, esta es la excepción que confirma mi propia regla) debo decir que tengo unos cuantos buenos calls 15.50 agost comprados el 18 de abril y este viernes cargué igual equivalente en acciones. Un lance sobre una acción mal parida que cansó al mercado a lo largo del tiempo, salvo a los fanáticos de siempre. Héctor, ¿cómo la ve Ud. actualmente, ya que pocas veces se menciona esta empresa en su página?

  2. Luis

    El campo será el gran protagonista en la Bolsa.
    Lo será en el Merval donde Cresud sumará ponderación rápidamente hasta llegar al podio.
    Lo será también en el Panel General a través de Molinos, Agrometal, Inversora Juramento, Semino, Morixe y sobre todo, la gran perla de la Bolsa: Carlos Casado.
    Cresud y Carlos Casado son PURO CAMPO.
    Agricultura, Ganadería, Plantas de Biodiesel, Grandes Hectáreas e Inmobiliarias Rurales.
    Pronto se hablará de la relación entre ambas por CRESCA (CRES-Cresud, CA-Casado), tema del que ya expuse en su momento.
    Cresud será la gran estrella del Merval y Casado tendrá una suba explosiva.

    • daniel

      mas de acuerdo no podria estar ..casado es un papel infravaluado y cresud otro mas porque nadie toma en cuenta la mayoria que tiene sobre irsa y a traves de esta del hipotecario ….ojo con casado subira explosivamente facil al dolar.

    • PEP

      Take pleasure in the blog you delivered.. Great thought processes you have got here.. My internet surfing seem complete.. thanks. Genuinely useful standpoint, thanks for posting..

  3. Sr. Tavares: Que piensa de Carlos Casado? Esta atrasada respecto a las demás o hay algún factor objetivo que este definiendo su cotización en las antípodas de la cotización de Cresud?? Es enorme la diferencia entre las dos empresas agropecuarias y el negocio es mas o menos el mismo, varia por ahí la tierra y su ubicación. Darán menores rindes por hectárea los campos de Carlos Casado en el Chaco Paraguayo que los de Cresud?? Aunque, tengo entendido, Cresud opera mayormente en campos marginales a los que mejora con aplicación de tecnología y buena genética. No son campos de la zona núcleo.- Sera la incidencia de las ganancias por negocios inmobiliarios citadinos que le genera IRSA a la empresa?? Que le parece??

  4. Accionista

    Buenas..

    Si estan TAN seguros de un papel.. por que no ponen todo su capital en el? para que reparten en tantos papeles y algunos de ellos.. papeluchos? Sera que al final de cuentas.. no estan seguros de nada? y apuestan a varios como para vanagloriarse de sus ganancias sin reconocer las perdidas de sus otras acciones? En fin.. leo algunos comentarios y sigo sin entenderlos. Slds.

    PS: Recuerdo nuevamente a un tipo que una vez se mofaba del resto por haber apostado en Mirgor y logrado quintuplicar su inversion!!!.. se creia el genio de la renta variable.. pero.. habia puesto 2 mangos!.. un insignificante porcentaje de su capital.. 2 monedas.. 10 monedas.. nada.. un autentico ridiculo.

  5. Mat

    Ledesma en los próximas semanas tendrá una suba explosiva. El balance que viene es superlativo, ni hablar el trimestre actual con los precios del azúcar en niveles muy altos.

  6. Ruben

    afuera se ve todo bastante bien,….mejor de lo esperado,….hojala mañana se mantenga,….!!! q semana tendra nuestro merval,……ni tiempo para una toma ,….la misma sera infima,.!!!!! se viene muy alcista nuetro market,….!!!

  7. Ruben

    Cristaldo,…..esta intacto,….el rally todavia no empezo,…!!! julio ya anticipe,…para mi va arriba de 20 pesos la local,..!!! ADR va rumbo a los 35 dolares ….el comportamiiento es excelente,…eso no quiere decir q pueda venir una toma,….OK,….si invertis en Pampa fijate un objetivo minimo de 1 año,…y despues me contas,….!!!!!!

  8. Javier Aguirre

    Yo la que estoy comprado es Moli, ojo¡¡¡ con el precio de la soja, esta en muy buen precio, y molinos es el primer exportador de harina de soja tiene puerto propio, planta de biodiesel, exportacion a granel de harinas y molienda para alimentos de animales, siembra propia y con terceros.Es una empresa de lpm, mucho futuro, para guardar en la taza de cafe y abrir al tiempo, muy dificil errarle.

    Nos vemos , Javier

  9. Javier Aguirre

    Y tambien una gama de productos de venta al publico de excelente calidad y con los snacks saludables le pego muy fuerte, y ni hablar de la rentabilidad que tienen estos productos, dentro de unos años esta empresa para mi tendra un crecimiento muy grande con este gobierno y si se da lo de la Alianza Del Pacifico y vendemos ahi que es donde tendriamos que vender esta explota, muy muy bien pensada la empresa, mucho futuro y comer pase lo que pase el mundo tiene que comer.Y lo bueno que no esta de moda, esto es lo que me gusta de comprar ahora y esperar .

    Nos vemos , Javier

  10. Javier Aguirre

    Y ya dijo el Sr Tavares cundo le preguntaron que esta empresa le gusta mucho, a mi tambien.

    Nos vemos , Javier

  11. Tavares
    Author

    Casado y Cresud son plazas muy especiales. Pueden subir y mucho pero yo prefiero otras.

    ACLARACION: LOS PROPIETARIOS DE ACCIONES PAGAN BIENES PERSONALES. Se les cobra a las empresas y luego las firmas recuperan lo pagado por los minoritarios, fundamentalmente cuando pagan dividendos.

  12. Carlitos70

    Maestro Hector: es una pregunta que quiza pueda tener muchas respuestas y tanto ud (que conoce mucho del tema (acciones) como yo que conozco poco podriamos equivocarnos dada la volatilidad que existe a nivel mundial.
    Yo me animaria a decir que en una cartera de 100 $ seria capaz de poner 50 $ en la bolsa como está hoy la cosa. No sé quizas me equivoque, pero es una percepción.

    Gracias por sus comentarios de siempre.

    Carlos

  13. Carlitos70

    PETROLEO: La tormenta arrecia la isla del mundo petrolero
    Viernes, 1 de Julio de 2016

    Pese al blindaje de precios que tiene la industria petrolera argentina, la crisis internacional hizo mella. Cayó la actividad en los yacimientos, y el impacto ya se siente en la producción.
    Un informe de la consultora Abeceb hace un pormenorizado panorama de los números que arroja el sector. El trabajo destaca que luego del fuerte desplome de principios de año, los precios internacionales del WTI y de Brent repuntaron en los últimos meses casi un 50%, y se ubican en valores cercanos a los 50 dólares el barril. Si bien se proyecta una tendencia alcista, el escenario de corto plazo será de una gran volatilidad.
    Se espera que en 2017, el consumo de petróleo supere a la producción y comiencen a bajar los stocks. Por ello, se pronostica una tendencia ascendente de los precios entre el segundo semestre de 2016 y 2018. Se espera que hacia 2020 superen los 60 dólares.
    Abeceb estaca que apenas dos años atrás se estimaba que el shale norteamericano requería precios en torno a los 70 dólares para ser rentables, mientras que hoy estas estimaciones apuntan a cotizaciones de entre 50 y 60 dólares.
    En Argentina, según adelantaron los funcionarios nacionales, se proyecta una convergencia gradual de los precios internos a los niveles internacionales. En el largo plazo, la cotización del Medanito se igualaría con el WTI.
    Si el precio internacional sube, esta convergencia se daría naturalmente. De lo contrario, el Gobierno bajaría el barril interno.
    Por el lado del gas, la resolución 21/2016 incrementó el precio para el segmento de la generación eléctrica de 2,8 dólares el millón de BTU a 5,2 dólares. De esta forma, ya se ubica por encima del precio de importación de Bolivia, que bajó a 3,1 dólares. Su cotización toma en cuenta el precio de los últimos seis meses, por lo que se estima un aumento en lo que resta del año en función de la recuperación del WTI.
    Producción
    Hacia fines del año pasado, la crisis internacional empezó a impactar de lleno en la Argentina, pese al blindaje del barril criollo. La producción de petróleo comenzó a retroceder y las empresas optaron por recortar las inversiones, lo que se vio reflejado en una fuerte baja de la actividad de perforación.
    Respecto de la producción de gas, en el primer trimestre de 2016 creció 5,2%, gracias a la mejor performance de YPF, Pan American Energy, TotalAustral y Tecpetrol.
    En petróleo, YPF mantuvo el crecimiento de los volúmenes durante los primeros tres meses del año (+3,2%), mientras que el resto de las empresas redujo su producción en 3,6%, lo cual dio como resultado una caída en la producción global.
    En el primer trimestre del 2016, la extracción de crudo en la Cuenca Neuquina, avanzó 0,5%, a pesar del escenario desfavorable, impulsada por el comportamiento de Loma Campana. En cambio, yacimientos como El Trapial tuvieron una estrepitosa caída (-20%).
    En cuanto al gas, el buen desempeño durante el primer trimestre obedece al avance en las tres principales cuencas: Neuquina (+7%), Austral (+4%) yGolfo San Jorge (+5%). El aumento en la producción de la Cuenca Neuquina –que representa casi el 60% de la producción– es explicado en parte por los yacimientos no convencionales.
    La producción de shale en Neuquén a representa poco menos del 3% del Total nacional, pero explica el 14% del crecimiento en el volumen de producción de gas durante el primer trimestre. La producción de Loma La Lata, luego de varios años de caídas importantes, mermó el apenas el 0,5%.
    Perforación en baja
    La actividad de la perforación se desplomó durante este año. Mientras que el primer trimestre de 2015 cerró con 350 pozos en perforación, en el mismo periodo de 2016, hubo 212 pozos. También se redujo la cantidad de pozos terminados, que arranca el año en los niveles más bajos desde 2011.
    El mayor impacto se registra en los campos petroleros, mientras que los gasíferos comienzan a mejorar sus números luego de la fuerte suba de los valores en boca de pozo.
    El Total de los metros perforados cayó un 27% interanual en el primer trimestre de 2016. El mayor descenso fue de las empresas privadas.
    En cuanto a la perforación por tipo de pozo, la mayor caída se observa en los de exploración. «Esto se debe a que los estímulos de precios otorgados evitan una mayor caída en la producción, pero no estimulan producción de largo plazo», indica el informe de Abeceb.
    Y agrega que «esto puede limitar la capacidad de extracción futura. De la misma manera, el fuerte descenso en pozos de avanzada estanca la capacidad de los yacimientos ya explorados al no poder extenderse sus límites».
    La caída en los precios internacionales del crudo impactó con mayor fuerza en la cuenca del Golfo San Jorge. Esto se debe a que gran parte de su producción de crudo Escalante se destina a la exportación porque no puede ser refinada en el país y, por ende, recibe un precio menor.
    La consultora destaca que las perspectivas son mejores para la Cuenca Neuquina, dado que es más intensiva en producción de gas y que el petróleo producido en esta zona (Medanito) se destina exclusivamente al mercado interno.
    Los menores precios y el aumento en los costos locales de producción generaron que casi la mitad de los equipos en campo se encuentren inactivos.
    Muchas empresas optaron por paralizar aquellos equipos destinados a la perforación, y mantuvieron activos a los de pulling (mantenimiento de pozos en producción), con menores costos, para sostener los volúmenes que se extraen.
    Como la perforación es la etapa más intensiva en empleo y en servicios petroleros, y se desplomó este año, se generó una fuerte reducción en la demanda de proveedores y tensiones con los gremios por los puestos laborales y los salarios.
    «-27% El Total de los metros perforados disminuyó un 27% interanual en el primer trimestre de 2016. YPF redujo 18% la actividad. El mayor descenso se dio en el caso de las empresas privadas.»
    Por otro lado, ante el agotamiento de los campos convencionales, comienza a tener peso la explotación de formaciones tight y shale. En los últimos dos años la producción de petróleo no convencional creció un 125%, en tanto la de gas no convencional aumentó un 386%.
    «u$s 60 con este precio, el barril de shale oil es rentable en Estados Unidos.»
    No obstante, los elevados costos de explotación que presentan estos yacimientos representan un desafío en el largo plazo. Se estima que el costo de perforación horizontal en un yacimiento no convencional oscila entre 14 y 16 millones de dólares por pozo, cerca de cinco veces el costo para un pozo convencional vertical. YPF planea alcanzar un costo de 10 millones hacia fin de año.
    Esa es la clave para incentivar el desarrollo de Vaca Muerta: se estima que el costo de perforación de un pozo de shale en Estados Unidos no suele superar los u$s 8 millones
    El informe de Abeceb indica que, si bien el shale neuquino sostiene el interés de los inversores extranjeros, el menor precio del crudo retrasará su desarrollo, dado los mayores costos de extracción.
    Fuente: http://www.lmneuquen.com/

  14. Estimado Héctor, ante todo, UD cuenta con el mayor de mis respetos por sus preferencias. Pero, quizás, (no lo afirmo con certeza) haya en su apreciación una foto vieja, un prejuicio, creo que deberíamos considerar que CRESUD ha tenido una transformación inusual en su comportamiento bursátil.

  15. ELIO

    Comparto una reflexión, como dicen seguido en el foro, nadie tiene la verdad absoluta, yo creo que cada uno tiene su propia verdad porque conoce donde le aprieta el zapato, lo que es bueno para uno puede no serlo para otro, por eso alguien compra y otro vende, y no precisamente alguno de los dos esté equivocado.

    En el ámbito de las inversiones, y las bursátiles no escapa a la regla, hay al menos 5 factores que distinguen entre el verdadero inversor y un simple apostador, cada uno decide con su forma de actuar en que lado quiere estar,
    1) beneficio al ingresar a la inversión, 2)definir plazo de la misma, 3)estimar el retorno aproximado que le otorgara el activo, 4)estimar los riesgos que implica, 5) tener claro la forma de salida de la inversión y antes de tiempo si la cosa se complica, y con un buen beneficio si sale según los planes, por eso acepto el riesgo, por un precio.
    Nada tiene que ver el monto del que este en juego, sino la forma de pensar y actuar con respecto al capital en juego, puede haber un excelente inversor que recién se este iniciando y tiene un capital de $5.000.- y actúa según esas premisas, corriendo los riesgos necesarios pero no excesivos según el retorno esperado, y hace crecer el capital mes a mes.

    Como puede haber un gran magnate impulsivo que se la tira de macho y se la aguanta y su capital es de 50 millones de dólares que heredó de su abuelita, o lo hizo laburando de sol a sol, y lo arriesga con soberbia a un solo activo porque se la aguanta si pierde, o si acierta se jacta de ser el mejor.

    Pero después que no ande llorando por los rincones, porque se dejó llevar por una recomendación que escucho por ahí, asi sea de Soros o Buffet, la pueden pifear, sino estos grandes no diversificarían.
    O bien por cierto fanatismo ya sea con el análisis fundamental, o bien técnico, no son infalibles, y la mejor empresa hoy, puede tener un traspié, ya sea propio o en la economía de su sector, que tire todo al tacho en poco tiempo.
    En el caso de que gane, sería el mejor que? Simplemente el mejor apostador, nada mas, es un simple apostador, a la ruleta, y esto no tiene nada que ver el monto que arriesga, si es $100 o 100 millones.
    El verdadero inversor duerme tranquilo, porque es responsable con sus decisiones. Sabe que corre riesgos, pero también sabe que tiene cierto control sobre ellos (diversificación, tener clara la salida, etc), porque si bien tiene estrategias de ganancia, también define cuando debe salir de la inversión si el riesgo se sale de lo calculado y no por ello ver afectado seriamente su patrimonio.

    En pocas palabras, quien puede estar tan seguro de un solo activo, como para ponerle todo su capital en él? ……y seguir siendo un inversor responsable ….. o bien para empezar a ser un simple apostador.
    Saludos.

  16. Martincho

    Si, tal cual, $70 u $80 tendría que valer CRESUD en 2 o 3 Meses. Es un verdadero regalo, va terminar con una suba vertical igual a la de AGROMETAL de 2.2 a 9 en dos meses o a la de CEPU de 19 a 110. Compran todo oculto para disimular la desesperacion por llevar y llevar. Cada ves que tengo un mango cargo y ya ni miro el precio, de solo verla pronto de la mano con SAMI a $80 me da confianza plena.

  17. Tavares
    Author

    Carlitos 70: No soy un buen consejero. Como muchos bolseros, tengo en 90% en acciones.
    Lemagisien: Muchas veces me equivoco. Si les gusta, adelante

  18. Tavares: Aceptado plenamente, no hay quien no se equivoque y menos en ésto. Pero mi propuesta era reflexionar junto a ud. sobre el fenómeno que se viene dando, que es insoslayable y que probablemente marca un cambio de operatoria de CRESUD, al menos los últimos tiempos. Me baso en los hechos y la experiencia me lleva a anticipar una proyección importante del valor de la acción en el mediano plazo. La mención no es para contrariar ni polemizar de manera estéril sino, justamente, porque aprecio su opinión.

  19. carlitos70

    Estimado Hector

    Le agradezco mucho su consejo. Y le hago un comentario. Todos estamos sujetos a equivocarnos. Eso no importa. en la vida se gana y se pierde.

    Lo saludo atte Carlos

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