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TITULOS CORTOS EN MONEDA EXTRANJERA

Durante la semana el gobierno logró aprobar en el Congreso, casi en soledad, la ley que permite al Ministerio de Economía remover al Bank of New York (BoNY) como fiduciario y nombrar a Nación Fideicomisos en su lugar. Ocurre que para el canje de deuda se constituyó un fideicomiso para realizar los pagos como estructura legal para que los fondos no fueran embargables. Por ello el juez Griesa se limitó a declarar los pagos ilegales, imposibilitando al gobierno a realizar los pagos a los bonistas. La intención gubernamental parece focalizarse en conseguir un modo de continuar realizando los próximos pagos con entidades que puedan no acatar la decisión de la justicia norteamericana.

La estrategia del gobierno de buscar el camino a través del Congreso parece ser una maniobra más política que efectiva. El año pasado, cuando la Corte de Apelaciones le preguntó a Argentina cuál era su propuesta para el conflicto, el Congreso debió suspender la “ley cerrojo” que se encontraba vigente, sancionando la ley 26.886. Dicha ley autorizaba al Ministerio a “realizar todos aquellos actos necesarios para la conclusión del proceso de reestructuración de deuda”, con la única salvedad de que se le prohibía ofrecer un trato más favorable a aquellos tenedores que hicieron juicios al Estado argentino respecto de quienes no lo hicieron. Es decir, el Ministerio ya contaba con las facultades para realizar lo que pretende la nueva ley.

Pero más allá del intento por remover al BoNY y llevar adelante un canje si los bonistas se lo piden, lo crucial de la situación para los bonos y para la República es que el gobierno zanje definitivamente el problema con los fondos buitre. Recordemos que frente al déficit energético, el drenaje de reservas y las divisas necesarias para desarrollar Vaca Muerta y renovar la infraestructura energética del país, el gobierno llevó adelante muchos cambios con el objeto de volver a los mercados de deuda internacionales. A inicios del 2014 subsanó parcialmente las estadísticas del INDEC, pagó los juicios perdidos en el CIADI, acordó con Repsol por la expropiación de YPF y trabó un arreglo por la deuda impaga con el Club de París. El único escollo para volver a tener tasas de un dígito eran los fondos buitre.

El problema de estos holdouts es el más importante: si no se resuelve el gobierno no podrá acceder al fondeo “normal” y, de necesitarlo, deberá recurrir a fondeos más rebuscados, que son claramente más caros. Este efecto genera una preocupación constante en los sectores de la economía, ya que mantiene al Banco Central con pocas reservas y sostenidas bajo una prohibición implícita de importar. La recesión generada también colabora a demandar menos energía y menos importaciones, aunque se trata de una ayuda no deseada ya que implica una industria cada vez menos activa. Sin embargo, aún es muy poco probable que haya problemas con los cobros de los vencimientos de deuda. Los rendimientos de los títulos cortos en moneda extranjera son sin duda atractivos.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 14.9.2014

 

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