El Panel General en las gateras

     

LAS  ACCIONES CON DEMANDA FIRME

foto: YPF. Colocación exitosa pero cara

 

Tal como se viene expresando, la Bolsa apunta al mediano plazo, haciendo “caso omiso” al panorama actual, en la inteligencia que el “vivir con lo nuestro” llegó a su límite. Bastó que tibiamente se manifestara la idea de un manejo más realista de la economía para que YPF colocara U$S 1000 millones en el mercado internacional con una demanda de U$S 5000 millones, siendo la tasa, todavía elevada.

Se afirmaron las acciones y títulos  públicos (pese al cupón PBI), y Wall Street catapultó las cotizaciones de varias empresas locales. Es que en  dólares el valor de las firmas argentinas es bajo y ante la aparente vuelta a decisiones racionales, vale la pena jugar “algunas fichas”. En efecto, los bancos están notoriamente infra valuados en relación a otros de la región. Ni hablar del valor patrimonial de las empresas. Solo falta recomponer la confianza del inversor. Internamente la Bolsa ya ajustó precios en algunas especies, pero aun hay resto.

YPF gana confianza, incrementa su producción y obtiene mejor retribución por sus productos. El beneficio se derrama sobre las demás petroleras, especialmente PESA que en el 1º Trimestre debe incorporar 170 millones por la venta de Puesto Hernández y sobre la cual existen diversas versiones sobre venta de otros activos para concentrarse en la exploración y perforación. PESA es uno de los papeles más atrasados del Panel Merval.

Tenaris no solo protege al inversor por sus activos en dólares, sino que asegura dividendos en esa moneda. Analistas técnicos ven a Tenaris en $ 270 en un futuro cercano. Si bien hay que tomar estas proyecciones “con beneficio de inventario”, el hecho que se realicen teniendo en cuenta la evolución de mercados desarrollados como el NYSE y Milán, le dan otra seriedad a estos gráficos, aunque no dejan de ser sólo “tendencia”.

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El Panel General está en las “gateras”. Fiplasto ganó en 6 meses 6,9 millones con capital de 63.3 millones; HOLCIM ganó en el ejercicio 29.6 millones (pérdidas por 41.3 millones en 9 meses), luego de haber absorbido una multa por 100 millones;  Dycasa obtuvo 11.9 millones (pérdidas por 25.8 millones en 9 meses) con Capital de 30 millones; Agrometal tuvo un resultado integral positivo de 34 millones con capital de 48 millones. Se está a la expectativa del resultado del concurso preventivo de su controlada brasileña en el que ofrece una quita del 40% y el resto en cuotas anuales.

Sigue sostenida la cotización de San Miguel. La decisión del Directorio de no otorgar dividendos en pos de mejorar la performance de la empresa, no repercutió negativamente entre sus tenedores. La buena noticia, que se conocería durante el corriente mes, es el levantamiento de la prohibición para la importación de limones argentinos por parte de Estados Unidos. Una vez que se anuncie, debería mejorar su cotización habida cuenta de su baja capitalización bursátil, menor a los 8 años de “price earning”. El dato pesa más que la menor cosecha de limones en la última temporada respecto a la inmediata

Héctor Tavares. Publicada en Clarín

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