EL NUEVO BONO PARA ABSORBER PESOS

dolar_blindado

 

OBJETIVO: BAJAR EL PARALELO

La financiación continua del déficit fiscal por parte del Banco Central genera una presión permanente sobre la inflación. Durante la gestión de Marcó del Pont, la financiación del déficit combinada con bajas tasas de interés eran un cóctel explosivo para la inflación y la presión cambiaria. Ésta última adquirió un vigor importante a fines del 2013, hasta que Juan Carlos Fábrega dio el golpe de timón con la devaluación de enero, con la fuerte suba de tasas de interés y con forzar a los bancos a liquidar activos en dólares. La presión cambiaria cedió completamente durante un semestre en el que la autoridad monetaria además contrajo la base monetaria en términos reales.

Sin embargo, la profundización del déficit fiscal obligó al Central a absorber cada vez más pesos para evitar que la emisión se traslade a presión sobre el dólar y sobre los precios en general. De continuar así, Fábrega debería comenzar a subir las tasas de interés para absorber mayor cantidad de pesos (encareciendo el financiamiento de las empresas) o bien liberar la situación tratando de contener al dólar. En este marco el gobierno decidió finalmente comenzar a reducir el peso de los subsidios en el gasto público (principalmente en las tarifas de los servicios) y ayudar a la absorción de pesos con la emisión de deuda.

Mediante la resolución conjunta 221/2014 y 60/2014 crearon el Bonar 2016, que se licitó el jueves. Se trata de un bono que vence en el 2016 y paga un interés variable más un 2% trimestralmente. El interés variable es la tasa Badlar Bancos Privados, que es la tasa de interés que pagan los bancos privados por depósitos de más de un millón de pesos. Actualmente esa tasa se ubica en niveles del 20% anual, con lo cual el bono estaría pagando –merced a su cotización bajo la par- un 22% nominal anual. Sin embargo, es probable que cotice en el orden de los $ 98 para equipararse con el resto de los bonos Badlar y rendir más cerca de 3,5% anual sobre Badlar.

Estos títulos son muy demandados por los inversores institucionales (fondos comunes de inversión, bancos y compañías de seguro) y suelen tener un rendimiento bajo pero con poca volatilidad y vinculado al nivel general de tasas. Son útiles para los bonistas como una diversificación y un resguardo más seguro del capital ante la volatilidad de los títulos en dólares y los ajustables por CER, pero su rendimiento es menor.

Si bien el rendimiento de los soberanos en dólares es difícilmente igualable por otro título público, en el mercado ya empieza a considerar un techo para el dólar en el corto plazo. Aún la demanda de divisa en la bolsa es sostenido por los importadores, quienes ante la imposibilidad de adquirirlos en el mercado mayorista de cambios a $ 8,42 recurren al “contado con liqui”. Pero el encarecimiento de los últimos días y la recesión ya comienzan a atenuar la compra de bonos en dólares para venderlos en el exterior. En este escenario, una mayor diversificación hacia bonos en pesos puede ser una buena estrategia para reducir la volatilidad del dólar.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 28.9.2014

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  328. Today, while I was at work, my sister stole my apple ipad and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now destroyed and she has 83 views. I know this is totally off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  329. Hey! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog. Is it tough to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about setting up my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? Appreciate it

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  333. Good day! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog. Is it hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any tips or suggestions? Appreciate it

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  336. I’m really loving the theme/design of your website. Do you ever run into any web browser compatibility issues? A few of my blog visitors have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Safari. Do you have any solutions to help fix this issue?

  337. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet savvy so I’m not 100% sure. Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated. Many thanks

  338. Hello are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and create my own. Do you require any html coding expertise to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!

  339. With havin so much content do you ever run into any issues of plagorism or copyright violation? My blog has a lot of unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my agreement. Do you know any methods to help protect against content from being stolen? I’d certainly appreciate it.

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  342. Hi there! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.|

  343. Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing many months of hard work due to no backup. Do you have any solutions to prevent hackers?

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  350. Heya are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and set up my own. Do you require any html coding expertise to make your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  351. I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the layout of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or two pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

  352. Hi there! Quick question that’s totally off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My weblog looks weird when browsing from my iphone 4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to correct this problem. If you have any suggestions, please share. With thanks!

  353. Please let me know if you’re looking for a article writer for your blog. You have some really great articles and I feel I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d absolutely love to write some material for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please send me an e-mail if interested. Regards!

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  356. Hey this is kinda of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding experience so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  357. Hey there just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the images aren’t loading properly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different browsers and both show the same results.

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  365. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was wondering what all is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet smart so I’m not 100% certain. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Many thanks

  366. Heya this is somewhat of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding experience so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

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