EL DOLAR VIVITO Y COLEANDO

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Finalmente, la inesperada suba del dólar oficial se detuvo tras unos días. Si bien mantiene una mínima suba diaria que continúa impulsando los bonos “dólar-link” el mercado por ahora parece descartar un ajuste continuo del tipo de cambio. Sin embargo, la nota de la semana estuvo dada por la recuperación del dólar bolsa, que había caído fuerte en los últimos meses del 2014. Las causas son difíciles de establecer con exactitud, ya que se habían mezclado sobredemanda de dólares, contracción monetaria y trabas del gobierno a la operatoria cambiaria de la bolsa.

Recientemente el Instituto de Estadísticas de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires publicó su IPC del 2014, que marcó una suba del 38% en el año. El INDEC aún no ha publicado el IPCNu de diciembre, pero se estima que finalizará el año con una suba del 22,4% aproximadamente. Por su parte, el dólar paralelo aumentó un 40% durante el 2014 mientras que el dólar “contado con liqui” (el precio con el que se pueden cambiar pesos por dólares en el exterior en la bolsa) subió un 32% en el mismo período. De modo que la suba de 4,6% del “contado con liqui” en lo que va del 2015 frente a la baja del dólar “blue” de un 3% no debería ser nada extraordinario si se supone que ambos a la larga siguen aproximadamente la inflación.

Para el resto del año existe mucha incertidumbre frente al dólar. Por un lado se espera una fuerte inflación inercial, pero menor que en el 2014 por la recesión económica. También resta ver qué ocurre con la política de tasas de interés que el Banco Central quiera llevar adelante. Por último, a medida que se acerque agosto las especulaciones eleccionarias tendrán un papel fundamental. Por ello, la opinión de los operadores del mercado es que existirá una demanda de bonos en dólares durante el primer semestre para cubrirse de la suba del dólar y más adelante, al menguar las expectativas de la divisa norteamericana, los inversores buscarán otros activos para diversificar y realizar apuestas puntuales.

Una opción interesante de inversión es el tramo medio de los bonos de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. El Bono Par de Mediano Plazo (BPMD) es una opción para los pequeños inversores, ya que es una emisión chica de la provincia y opera montos relativamente pequeños. Ya para grandes inversores, el Bono al 2021 opera como mínimo 100.000 bonos (equivalente a algo más de un millón de pesos), y resulta de más fácil adquisición. Ambos títulos tienen un rendimiento de los más altos de la curva, superando el 12,5% anual en dólares, y tienen buenas condiciones legales al ser bonos bajo legislación Nueva York. Al ser de la Provincia, no forman parte del litigio con los fondos buitre.

Otra posibilidad existente para el ahorrista consiste en la inversión en dólares en el Boden 2015. A través de la bolsa se puede realizar la inversión comprando RO15D alrededor de los 98 dólares para tener un rendimiento directo a octubre del 9,2% (sin incluir comisiones). Vale decir que por cada 100 dólares invertidos se obtendrían 109,2 en 9 meses.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 18.1.2014

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