EL DOLAR SIGUE EN LAS NOTICIAS

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Luego de algunos días de calma tras el “efecto Zannini”, el temor nuevamente volvió a despertar la cotización bursátil del dólar. A medida que se acercan las elecciones, los inversores temen una profundización de las actuales políticas que termine impactando en la cotización de los títulos públicos y acciones. La divisa norteamericana gozaba de una inestable paz en el mercado cambiario (apenas se movió durante el año a pesar de una inflación sostenida), que se rompió aceleradamente: el mercado esperaba turbulencias para septiembre, una vez conocido el resultado de las PASO. Sin embargo, la designación de Zannini aceleró el escenario.

En lo que va de junio, el dólar “contado con liquidación”, que resulta del cambio implícito entre los activos en pesos de la bolsa argentina y su cotización en dólares en las plazas del exterior, tuvo un salto superior al 7,5%. Se trata de un guarismo elevado si se considera que en el resto del año tan sólo se había incrementado un 0,26% durante la “pax cambiaria”. El problema de un salto del tipo de cambio lo tienen principalmente los grandes inversores con sus inversiones en tasa de interés en pesos, la alternativa financiera de moda durante el primer semestre del 2015. Sin embargo, estos inversores institucionales aún se encuentran “haciendo tasa” pero con mayor cuidado que antes.

Para el ahorrista minorista, la semana entrante vendrá con mayor liquidez para invertir, producto de pagos de interés importante de los títulos Discount (dólares y pesos) y Cuasipares. Ante el salto cambiario, lo más probable es que la liquidez se vuelque hacia los bonos cortos en dólares. Hay que recordar que estos instrumentos son los que mejor se adaptan a la cobertura cambiaria, ya que los títulos más largos, si bien mantienen la cobertura del dólar, también se encuentran mucho más expuestos a las variaciones del riesgo país. Los títulos largos, como el DICA o el PARA, serán una mejor opción que los títulos cortos sólo si mejora el rendimiento soberano (es decir, si los inversores están dispuestos a prestarle al Estado argentino a una tasa menor) y serán peor elección si el rendimiento cae. En caso de mantenerse igual el rendimiento, las inversiones resultarán aproximadamente igual de rentables.

De todas maneras, el escenario es distinto a años anteriores, en los que la dolarización de portafolios era materia obligada ante una tasa de interés en pesos inferior a la inflación esperada. En la actualidad no sólo se cuenta con tipos de interés emparejados con la inflación, sino también con barreras legales (y presiones no muy legales) que dificultan la dolarización de activos.

Lo cierto es que en el año, el dólar subió menos que la inflación, y los inversores esperan que recupere el terreno perdido.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 28.6.2015

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