EL DOLAR ENTRA A LA CANCHA

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Finalmente el Banco Central decidió entrar a la cancha y, por primera vez desde la liberación del cepo cambiario, intervino en la plaza mayorista del dólar para ofrecer divisas y bajar la cotización. Desde la liberación de la plaza cambiaria la moneda norteamericana había tenido un desempeño en valores inferiores a los que cotizaba el dólar libre («contado con liqui») durante la época de las restricciones. En las últimas jornadas la rápida escalada hizo que tanto compradores y vendedores se corrieran a la espera de la intervención oficial que brinde estabilidad. Con un panorama más claro, el mercado se estabilizó en torno a los $ 15,35 por dólar.

Ocurre que la intervención del Banco Central no sólo se dio en el ámbito cambiario sino en la tasa de interés en pesos, histórico enemigo de la divisa. Si bien la autoridad monetaria debió inyectar liquidez en su renovación semanal de Lebacs (renovó menos de lo que vencía), lo cierto es que aceptó absolutamente todas las ofertas que se presentaron en el tramo corto –el más voluminoso- convalidando una leve suba de tasa de interés. Los inversores del mercado esperan que la semana que viene el BCRA siga absorbiendo todo lo que se pueda, aun convalidando tasas más elevadas que las actuales. Esa expectativa también ayudó a la estabilidad del dólar.

Esta cuestión impacta directamente en el mercado de bonos, especialmente en los «dólar-linked». Durante la semana los grandes inversores fueron saliendo parcialmente de estos títulos para pasarse a tasa de interés en pesos, provocando una suba en los rendimientos de los bonos que pagan en pesos pero indexándose al tipo de cambio oficial. Dicho de otro modo, estos bonos subieron menos de lo que subió la cotización formal del dólar. Esto abre una ventana de oportunidad para el inversor minorista ya que puede aprovechar para adquirir títulos con alto rendimiento, si bien se espera una reducción de la cotización del dólar.

Otra alternativa para inversores más conservadores es pasarse asimismo a rendimientos de tasa de interés en pesos, con niveles de TIR del orden del 33% anual. Esto se puede obtener tanto con los títulos «Bonac» como aquellos que pagan una tasa de interés variable Badlar. Es más recomendable para el inversor minorista volcarse a estos últimos, ya que tienen plazo un poco más largo: el Bonac de mayor vencimiento es a septiembre 2016. En los títulos cortos la comisión de los agentes del mercado, al ser un porcentaje fijo, afecta mucho el rendimiento de la inversión, mientras que en los títulos largos el costo de la transacción se licua en mayor plazo.

Los bonos como el AM17, AO17 y AMX9, con vencimientos en marzo y octubre del 2017 y marzo del 2019, respectivamente, ofrecen rendimientos nominales de tasa de interés «badlar» + 3%. Llevado a términos de TIR con los niveles de badlar actuales, se estaría hablando de 32,5% de rendimiento efectivo anual y se tiene la ventaja de estar cubierto ante eventuales incrementos de la tasa de interés (de igual modo que se obtiene un menor rendimiento si la tasa de interés baja).

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 28.2.2015

2.843 comentarios

  1. Diego

    Maestro, como ve a las acciones del campo, siguen teniendo recorrido? Acciones como paty, semi, sami y cres subieron mucho últimamente, seguirán?

  2. Arruabarrena

    Fue una lastima como me despiden de Boca! Sabia que con el Pro venían los despidos pero pensé que en Boca iba a ser distinto.

  3. Tavares
    Author

    Diego: Veo bien a Inversora, Agro, Paty y sami
    Caruso: Creo que Saca vende humo
    Vasco: Te tengo en el corazón pero no juegan a nada

  4. Gervasio

    Así se expresa una tal Sabrina en foro de Rava

    «a come no vuelvo hasta que no vea que se corrió el 169/35 y cualquiera que haga lo mismo que ellos. Los gráficos me los paso por ahí (perdón la expresión) no sirven los gráficos en ése papel manejado por 3 ó 4 operadores. Cuando ellos se corran, si es que ese día algún día llega : , veré si entrar o no »

    Creo que esto es una muestra de porque estamos como estamos como país!

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