EL CENTRAL TIRA DE LA PIOLA

 

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Todo parece indicar, o al menos los mercados locales así se comportan, que las expectativas de devaluación para los próximos meses de este año son bajas. Por ahora, swap de China mediante y por menores importaciones como reflejo del parate productivo, la compra de dólar ahorro por parte de los ahorristas se vino satisfaciendo sin pérdida de reservas.

Como corolario de estas expectativas menguadas, los títulos dollar-linked que tanto rindieron desde fines del año pasado corrigieron a la baja en el último mes. Sin embargo, el atraso cambiario es tan fuerte (y todo está dado para que sea cada vez mayor), que es muy difícil pensar que pueda llegarse a diciembre sin una fuerte corrección del tipo de cambio.

Y ello aún cuando el presidente del Banco Central, Alejandro Vanoli, quien aspira a seguir en su cargo hasta el 2019 cualquiera sea el signo político del presidente que suceda a Cristina, asegure que “hay un consenso que se ha ganado en estos tiempos, incluso entre los candidatos de la oposición, de que la devaluación de la moneda no es un camino adecuado en Argentina para ganar competitividad, porque tiene costos sociales y pocas ventajas”.

En rigor, de lo que sí hay consenso es sobre que a nadie le gusta tener que ser quien devalúa, pero las devaluaciones que ha sufrido la Argentina han sido siempre resultado de la gestación de desequilibrios previos que, llegado el momento, no se pudieron sostener más.

Y si bien hoy todos los agentes económicos le reconocen a la actual gestión kirchnerista gran muñeca para pilotearla, de lo que sí hay convicción hasta en los sciolistas es que se está heredando un tipo de cambio muy atrasado.

Por ello la volatilidad irá en aumento durante la serie de batallas electorales previstas este año, y no cabe duda de que más tarde o más temprano habrá un embate a favor del dólar, aún cuando las inversiones en pesos están siendo promovidas -como nunca antes en la era kirchnerista- con tasas de interés que superan a la inflación.

Por lo pronto los inversores se muestran cada vez más remisos a invertir a tasa fija a 9 meses de plazo, lo cual sin duda irá agravándose a medida que se acerque el cambio de mandato presidencial.

Por ello, los títulos vinculados al dólar oficial en cualquier momento pueden recobrar bríos. Si bien en el último mes mostraron correcciones, su nivel de precios indica que se espera una devaluación del peso aún a pesar que actualmente el dólar oficial se mueva a tasas muy por debajo de la inflación. Incluso los inversores apuntan al tramo más corto de la curva, pero para los pequeños ahorristas bonos como el NDG21 de la provincia de Neuquén o el BDC18 de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires son una alternativa con mejores perspectivas.

Los títulos como el Bonar X y el Bonar 2024, que son estrictamente en dólares y con buen rendimiento, constituyen una buena opción para quien no quiera arriesgarse a un próximo gobierno que decida mantener el cepo cambiario. Estos títulos, por otra parte, serán los candidatos a reemplazar al Boden 2015 que vencerá a fines de septiembre próximo. Gran parte de los dólares que cobrarán los tenedores (unos U$S 6.500 millones) sin duda se reinvertirán en algunas de estas especies.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 24.5.2015

3.567 comentarios

  1. José perez

    El comentario respecto a la manipulación de COME que hizo un usuario aquí, que dice tener mas de 50 años en bolsa es un verso. Seguro es un comprado intentando vender. Si fuese como dice hubiesen cerrado las posiciones descubiertas y de acuerdo al informe que tengo del día jueves 21 aumentaron respecto al día 20. Por lo cual no están cerrando sino vendiendo mas en descubierto.
    El martes verán que seguirá bajando primero 2,8 luego a 2,5 y posterior posible piso en 2,10.
    Incrimina agentes sin saber y que aclare quien es el turco.

  2. José perez

    El martes aprenderán que lo posteado por el otrora forista de Rava Smart, bandeado por mal educado y no respetar las reglas de un foro, es verso. Que además siempre va cambiando sus nick para escribir para que no lo bannean de todos lados.Si quieren aprender de bolsa e invertir sabiamente no lean los foros. Lean libros.
    Recuerden martes come 2,8 cierre miércoles 2,5 viernes 2,10. El mercado argentino ya fue como dicen los chicos. Scioli a la presidencia Kichiloff la campera al poder.

    • Goenitz

      jaja, COME el martes, $2,80? viernes, $2,10?
      Es una vergüenza tener que leerte, “Jose Peréz”.
      Espero que no haya nadie tan inocente como para tomarte en serio.

    • Hector Tavares

      Coincido con Vos. Estuve chequeando sobre la denuncia del forista sobre Come y es totalmente infundada. Acá no se debe buscar culpables de las bajas sino saber ver hacia donde va el dinero. Posiblemente Come vuelva en poco tiempo a cotizar debajo de los 1,95.

      • Sabrina

        Hector, soy Sabrina del foro de Rava, el instinto femenino me dice que volvemos debajo de 1,95 a mi también pero no solo eso sino también el análisis de la acción. Estoy comprada pero hoy reviento posición a perdida.

        • Hector Tavares

          Te felicito! Justo la nota del día de hoy va a ser sobre el desplome de la cotización de Come!

  3. htavares

    Los últimos 3 comentarios de H.Tavares no son míos. Lamentablemente me están jaqueando. CUIDADO, QUIEREN DESTRUIR LA PAGINA

  4. Ey! hay alguien que se está haciendo pasar por mí! jajajajaj
    De ninguna manera vendo mi posición en COME.
    Ya no voy a escribir más en éste post de Héctor (para que no resulte confuso si aparece mi doble jaja) a quien le agradezco por el espacio y por brindarnos su experiencia y conocimiento.
    Buenos días.
    Sabri (la verdadera)

  5. htavares

    Lamentablemente hay gente que no acepta que se puede escribir libremente sin censura. Y SE DEDICA A MENTIR SOBRE LOS FORISTAS REALES E INCLUSO SOBRE MI. CUIDADO. VAMOS A TOMAR MEDIDAS PARA EVITARLO

  6. Goenitz

    Es muy notorio que los 3 comentarios de ese tal “Hector Tavares” son falsos.
    De ninguna forma nadie que lo lee puede creer que tire semejante comentario apocalíptico sin fundamentos.
    Lo que sí me preocupa, es que hay algo raro dando vueltas en COME.
    Mucha gente queriendo meter miedo, no sólo con comentarios sino también con lo que pasó la última rueda!
    En el medio esa denuncia de otro participante acerca de maniobras ilegales y su impostor aclarando que es mentira. Todo muy turbio…y a 2 días de que Noel haga una presentación en la Bolsa.
    Esperemos que esto se aclare.
    Saludos

  7. Jose Perez

    Al final se dio el escenario que les planteaba ayer! Sinceramente creo que mañana veremos Come en 2,5 y el viernes ya cerca de 2,10. Así como nadie veía fantasmas mientras subía nadie debería verlos mientras baja. Es sano y natural. En 2,1 vemos si para la sangría o sigue hacia abajo.

  8. CHORI TRADER

    Lamento lo sucedido en su blog estimado hTavares. Este espacio de libertad hay que cuidarlo entre todos. Vale la pena.
    Para ser sincero, caí en la trampa y pensé que era usted quien avalaba con su opinión siguiente mi comentario
    en La Nota de La Semana, donde habitualmente comparto mis opiniones, que iluso fui. jajaja.
    De cualquier manera sigo sosteniendo lo comentado por entonces y creo que a la luz de los resultados de la rueda. Tan lejos no estuve, ni estaré.
    Dese ya, un llamado de atención sin intención de polemizar para GOENITZ, la verdad no me interesa en lo mas mínimo, pero debería cuidar sus formas, desacreditar a quien opina distinto no hace mas que descalificarse a él mismo. Me gustaría que se disculpe por llamarme agitador de tercera, ya que jamás le falte el respeto. Tengo la mejor con todos los foristas.
    Ciertamente, mi opinión coincidió con la de JOSE PEREZ, -sin haberlo leído- aventuré el mismo presagio hostil y aciago para COME. Seguramente habrá ocasiones en que esto no ocurra.
    Finalmente, quisiera agregar a COME y GGAL a TRANS cuando llegue a 4 -aprox-

    CHORI TRADER

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