EL CAMBIO ES INEXORABLE -la nota de la semana-

toooodo el mundo miente
Vuelven los temores globales por la debil situación de Grecia , Ucrania, Venezuela……..¿Argentina?.
En la Bolsa local lo ocurrido el martes con la euforia desmedida ante rumores de entendimientos entre opositores, blanqueó la preferencia de los inversores. La desmentida posterior, si bien afectó al mercado, no es totalmente creíble. Es que nadie ” se suicida en las vísperas”. Lo ideal, políticamente, es jugar con el efecto sorpresa. Por lo tanto, hasta las elecciones no hay que esperar sincericidios “pianta votos” y sí, declaraciones “pour la galerie”. A esta altura de los acontecimientos pareceria que la definicion estaria entre Macri (PRO) y Scioli (FPV). Lo real es que quien gane recibirá una pesada herencia e inexorablemente aplicarán “cirugia mayor ” o sistema “mostaza Merlo” ( paso a paso) o una combinacion de ambas. Cualquier decision será mejor que lo actual en lo que se prioriza “el aguante” hasta octubre. En politica ya alguien dijo “la unica verdad es la realidad”. En economia es igual. Ya lo dijo Rogelio Frigerio; “los que burlan las leyes económicas terminan burlados”.  La realidad puede disfrazarse, negarse, postergarse, pero finalmente se manifiesta. Es cuestion de tiempo y el tiempo de la Argentina se venció. De alli que se debe olvidarnos de analizar el 2do semestre 2015 y pasar directamente al 2016-¿Quién puede sostener como correctos los precios actuales? ALUAR:u$s 0.92; SIDERAR: u$s 0.72: GRUPO GALICIA: u$s 2.60; TENARIS: u$s 17.-; YPF: u$s 33.30; MOLINOS RIO: u$s 3.70; PESA: u$s. 0.85; TELECOM: u$s 4.80, etc, etc.  Para los que tienen resto, la mayoría de los precios del panel general son garantía de fuertes ganancias a mediano plazo. Todo indica que se atravesará un periodo erratico pero con un futuro bursatil positivo.
Héctor Tavares

2.358 comentarios

  1. Jeronimo

    Acumular… Hasta que arreglen todo. Uno o el otro. 2016 pochoclo! COME USD 0,25/7 muy tentador…

  2. joset

    Las empresas se llenaron de plata estos d doce años ks. Macri, candidato favorito del mercado, viene a destruir la empresa nacional, ayudado por los mismos Empresarios.

  3. ramiro

    joset
    Opinion teñida de kakismo puro. Con todo el viento a favor, soja por las nubes y retenciones por las nubes, destruyeron todo a su paso. Nada peor que el kakismo nos puede pasar como Nacion y encima aliados de Rusia Venezuela e Iran. Mete miedo solo pensar que nuestro país este involucrado con esos regimenes.

  4. JUAN DEL REY ALZAGA

    Estimado Hector, podrias clarificar el parrafo cuando mencionas ….”¿Quién puede sostener como correctos los precios actuales? ALUAR:u$s 0.92; SIDERAR: u$s 0.72: GRUPO GALICIA: u$s 2.60; TENARIS: u$s 17.-; YPF: u$s 33.30; MOLINOS RIO: u$s 3.70; PESA: u$s. 0.85; TELECOM: u$s 4.80, etc, etc.”
    Realmente por P.Earnings Siderar y Grupo Galicia, son baratas en dolares, inclusive si se produjera una devaluacion, del orden del 50% 60% como algunos informes secretos estan a puertas adentro pensando, estos papeles subirian en $ y mantendrian en el peor de los casos sus valores en dolares….
    Para valuar tu lo sabes mejor que yo, que se pueden tomar distintos metodos, ganancias proyectadas, valor libros/s cotizacion, etc etc… Te dejo un abrazo y me gustaria tu clarificacion del parrafo.

  5. joset

    Perdón por mi ignorancia. El tercer jueves de este mes no vencen contratos de cauciones o algo así, y como suele pasar en esos casos, se desploman todas las acciones, como paso en diciembre???

  6. Tavares
    Author

    Colorín tendrá un buen año. Independientemente de la suscripción que viene, Sube o baja con $10. Los precios de las acciones en dólares son irrisorios, aún con el atraso del dólar.

  7. horacio

    Rogelio Frigerio, citado arriba, fue mi gran maestro de historia de la economía argentina, economía y política. El y Arturo Frondizi: dos gigantes. Memorables. Inolvidables. Cada vez que pienso en ellos me emociono.

  8. VICENTE HORACIO GAMMELLA

    ESTIMADO HÉCTOR, RECORDANDO ALGUNAS DE SUS EXPRESIONES REFERIDAS A UNA EMPRESA QUE NO ANDE BIEN UD. SOLÍA DECIR… ES UN LANCE!! COMPRAR ALGO., EN ESTE CASO YO DIRÍA QUE ES UN SUPER LANCE COMPRAR POLLEDO A ESTOS VALORES. ESTA EMPRESA ESTÁ FUSILADA, NO GANA, NO TIENE LABURO,ESTÁ LO QUE SE DICE VACÍA, SÓLO TIENE UNOS JUICIOS PENDIENTES DE DEFINICIÓN , POR AUTOP. ILLÍA, COVIARES… Y UNO MUY LEJANO QUE ES YACIRETÁ.. PERO TODO ESTÁ EN EL AIRE HASTA EL MOMENTO SIN DUDA ALGUNA… REDUJO SU CAPITAL DE 125 MILL. A 6 MILL. POR PÉRDIDA DE SU P. NETO., HACE AÑOS QUE NO TENDRÍA QUE EXISTIR MÁS. OTRAS EMPRESAS CON MUCHO MENOS SE FUERON ALBOMBO, NO SERÁ QUE EL GRUPO ROGGIO CASI COMO DE AGRADECIMIENTO LA MANTIENE COTIZANDO YA QUE FUÉ A TRAVÉS DE ESTA FIRMA CASIMIRO POLLEDO QUE ENTRARON AL MERCADO… Y APARTE… SI UN JUICIO DE ÉSTOS LES SALE FAVORABLE LA INCIDENCIA DEL COBRO DEL MISMO REPERCUTIRIA BASTANTE EN ESE CAPITAL TAN PEQUEÑO, NI QUE HABLAR SI SALDRÍA LO DE YACIRETÁ QUE NO SÉ EN QUE ETAPA SE ENCUENTRA SINCERAMENTE. POR ESTOS MOTIVOS QUE LE COMENTO YO ME TIRÉ UN SUPER LANCE Y COMPRÉ ESTE PAPEL . ES UNA OPCIÓN SIN VENCIMIENTO. UD. QUE OPINA MAESTRO?? SE LO AGRADECERÉ..

  9. JUAN DEL REY ALZAGA

    Estimado Vicente,

    Entiendo a lo que se refiere, pero el tema de POLLEDO es el costo de oportunidad que ud. puede tener inmovilizando su dinero en una empresa por años, sin cobertura de generación de ganancias, y con la debilidad de tener pesos sin cobertura ante una devaluación, ya que en el fuero federal todos los juicios se ajustan en el orden del 18 al 22% anualmente, que sucede si la devaluacion lo supera ?. Me gustaria dejarle esas inquietudes.
    Ud. sabe hay momentos y momentos, y procesos judiciales largos, mire SCP.

    Saludos estimado.

  10. Martin

    Si me tengo que guiar por la historia, las acciones estan caras. Siempre ante escenarios de fin de ciclo economico y devaluacion la bolsa de derrumbo. Todos los politicos de la historia ante escenarios parecidos optaron siempre por el gradualismo, ninguno devaluo porque quiso. Pero la posibilidad de gradulismo la da la realidad, no es un tema de voluntad. Todo el bloque de emergentes esta devaluando, y nosotros aca tenemos alta deuda interna del bcra, holdout, atraso tarifario, deficit fiscal, alta inflacion, un tipo de cambio que no les sirve a la empresas para exportar, 3 años la economia sin crecer, etc. Las posibilidades de gradualismo se achican dia a dia y el poco margen de maniobra que quedaba, lo uso este gobierno para llegar a las elecciones. Al merval le falta caer un monton todavia. Venia en picada y se freno por una nota trucha de Comercial del Plata y supuesto acuerdo de Macri con Massa que dificilmente se de. Con solo ver el volumen operado en acciones se nota que el mercado esta al borde del KO. Coincido en que luego de la tormenta la bolsa se va recuperar, como lo hizo siempre, pero para que acumular a estos precios? que aun les queda recorrido a la baja. En estos momentos no vale el analisis tecnico, ni el fundamental, en estos momentos lo que vale es mirar la historia

  11. VICENTE HORACIO GAMMELLA

    MUY AGRADECIDO JUAN DEL REY ALZAGA POR SU APORTE, ES BUENO Y REALISTA SU ANÁLISIS, LO TENDRÉ EN CUENTA Y A UD. TAMBIÉN LE AGRADEZCO TAVARES SU RESPUESTA CONCISA Y PRECISA. DE AHORA EN MÁS YO TENGO QUE DECIDIR.. MUCHAS GRACIAS. Y MUCHA SUERTE EN LAS DECISIONES QUE TOMEN.

  12. Tavares
    Author

    Martín: No me parece correcto decir que una devaluación es mala para la Bolsa en términos históricos. En primera instancia las empresas se abaratan pero en seguida entran inversores locales y del exterior y el resultado en general es favorable, especialmente para las empresas exportadoras.
    Vicente: Ampliando mi comentario. Creo que hay en estos momentos mejores empresas con fundamentos irreprochables y que a mi juicio están baratas.

  13. Tavares
    Author

    Germán: Para mi es una empresa en crecimiento. Su pasado es nefasto pero los cambios en su Directorio y su crecimiento y ordenamiento de los últimos meses la posicionan favorablemente. CGC es una empresa muy apetecible. Lástima tanta timba con sus opciones. No por la cantidad, sino por las “bolas” que se tiran para influir en el mercado.

  14. Martin

    HECTOR le agradezco su respuesta: Yo puse que primero baja y despues se recupera y aclare “como lo hizo siempre”. Es malo para que el que esta comprado en ese momento y una oportunidad como pocas para el que esta liquido en dolares. Por eso puse “para que acumular a estos precios” Yo coincido en que hay muchos fondos dispuestos a invertir en nuestra bolsa, pero parece que no a estos precios, si fuera el caso contrario habria mucho mas volumen operado en acciones. Hoy el mercado baja todos los dias, no se refleja en las cotizaciones porque lo subieron fuerte 2 veces. Una fue la nota trucha de Comercial del Plata, recien hoy COME esta a los precios previos a la nota trucha, sin esa nota donde estaria? y sino hubieran suspendido la cotizacion?. Despues vino el rumor de un acuerdo entre Massa y Macri que puse “dificilmente se de” y hoy vemos que no se dio. Sin embargo parte de esa suba desmedida hoy esta apuntalando a muchas acciones que sino estarian mucho mas abajo y se hubiera quebrado el soporte de 10.500 /10.800 puntos. Usted tiene mucha mas experiencia que yo, de eso no hay dudas. Por mi lado sigo liquido y cuidando lo ganado hasta ahora. El tiempo dira si los precios son bastante mas bajos en plena fase de correccion del tipo de cambio o ahora. Ganar van a ganar todos, pero el que este liquido en dolares ganara mucho mas. Hoy para mi hay que vender y esperar mejores precios

  15. Tavares
    Author

    En general cuando viene la suba se paga gran peaje en las especies chicas. En el largo, comprar a estos precios determinados papeles, especialmente del panel general, creo que será negocio. Como todo, es opinable. Saludos

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