EL BANCO CENTRAL REVISA SU ESTRATEGIA

 

 

 

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 El dilema de las tasas

 Preocupado por el cercenamiento del crédito privado, el Banco Central redujo un escalón en las tasas.

 Una de las herramientas de política monetaria del Banco Central son los instrumentos financieros que ofrece, llamados letras y notas (LEBACs y NOBACs), que le permiten a las instituciones bancarias suscribir para adquirirlas y obtener un determinado retorno. En enero pasado la autoridad monetaria elevó hasta el 30% anual el interés de estos instrumentos, de modo que los bancos salieran a competir a tasas más altas por los depósitos a plazo fijo y de ese modo retirar pesos de la economía. Las tasas de Lebacs y Nobacs suelen ser inferiores a las de plazo fijo. ya que son utilizadas por los bancos para colocar excedentes de dinero más que un negocio en sí mismo. Sin embargo, la repentina suba no fue acompañada por las tasas pagadas en igual magnitud y los bancos prefirieron invertir en letras más que otorgar créditos.

Conscientes de la situación, el Central decidió ir recortando paulatinamente las tasas ofrecidas para recuperar el crédito privado y disminuir el impacto de la política monetaria contractiva sobre el nivel de actividad. Esto fue posibilitado por el éxito superior al esperado que tuvieron las medidas de restringir la liquidez para combatir las expectativas de devaluación. No obstante, el BCRA debe manejarse con cuidado, ya que el ánimo inversor es muy delicado y un rebote de la liquidez, de la mano de la financiación con emisión del déficit fiscal y la compra de dólares en la balanza comercial, puede alterar los ánimos nuevamente y producir una peligrosa escalada en la demanda de dólares.

En materia de bonos, las tasas de interés mantienen una relación inversa. La referencia de rendimiento de los depósitos a plazo fijo (tasa Badlar) es la que impacta de manera indirecta en los títulos públicos, de modo que ante bajas de la tasa de interés los títulos deben subir para reducir el rendimiento y actuar de modo
contrario frente a incrementos de interés.

A modo de ejemplo, el año pasado los soberanos ajustables por CER como el PR13 o el NF18 tenían rendimientos de 10%/15% anual más el ajuste de CER (el 10% que “clavaba” Guillermo Moreno), mientras que la tasa Badlar se ubicaba en 14%/19%. A partir de enero los títulos rendían 4%/7% más el ajuste de CER (estimado en 27%/30%), mientras que la Badlar es del 24%/27%. En este caso, si bien los soberanos subieron de precio (ya que cayó su rendimiento de 10%/15% a 4%/7%), el ajuste de CER por el cambio de IPC a IPCNu fue mucho más alto. Si la tasa de referencia se hubiera mantenido constante, la caída de rendimiento debería haber sido más fuerte, incluso rindiendo tasas negativas.

En conclusión, ahora que el IPCNu no pegaría saltos bruscos, la reducción de tasas de interés del Banco Central tendría que jugar de manera favorable a favor de los títulos ajustables por CER. Sin embargo, la situación del dólar puede ser delicada si se rompe el umbral de liquidez donde las expectativas devaluatorias vuelvan a presionar la balanza comercial. Una posición mixta entre títulos con CER (DICP, PR13) y soberanos en dólares (RO15, AA17, BDED, BPMD) sería más que razonable para obtener buenos rendimientos y diversificar el riesgo.

Eduardo Cardenal, IECO, Clarín, 11.5.2014

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  229. At this time it appears like Expression Engine is the preferred blogging platform out there right now. (from what I’ve read) Is that what you’re using on your blog?

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  235. My coder is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on several websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform. I have heard great things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  236. Najedzona sprawnosc zmyslowa rowniez odpad komplikacyj sposrod wzwod owo zamierzenie co chwila wiekszej kapele dzis przebywajacych jegomosciow. Odwiedzajac polski sprawnie udzielajacy sie serw masz mozliwosc wyzbycia sie stresu natomiast polaczonych sposrod zanim zaburzen erekcji takze sprawnego wyeliminowania zakulisowych zwolnien utrudniajacych Twoje uklady zmyslowe. Podawane przy uzyciu nas konsultacje nielekarskie przewodzone sa na mocy nieorzeczonych koneserzy.

  237. Please let me know if you’re looking for a article author for your blog. You have some really great articles and I feel I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d absolutely love to write some articles for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please send me an e-mail if interested. Thanks!

  238. Hey, I think your website might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your blog site in Opera, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, great blog!

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  240. Hey there! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My web site looks weird when browsing from my iphone. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to fix this problem. If you have any suggestions, please share. With thanks!

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  245. Hey! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

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  247. Hello! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Many thanks!

  248. I don’t know if it’s just me or if everybody else encountering issues with your blog. It looks like some of the written text on your content are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This might be a issue with my web browser because I’ve had this happen before. Kudos

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  253. First off I would like to say superb blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was curious to know how you center yourself and clear your head prior to writing. I have had a hard time clearing my mind in getting my thoughts out there. I truly do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are usually lost simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any ideas or hints? Thank you!

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  257. With havin so much content do you ever run into any issues of plagorism or copyright infringement? My site has a lot of unique content I’ve either authored myself or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my authorization. Do you know any ways to help reduce content from being stolen? I’d certainly appreciate it.

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  262. When I initially commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Many thanks!

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  265. Today, I went to the beachfront with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!

  266. Hi! I know this is kinda off topic however I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog article or vice-versa? My blog addresses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I think we could greatly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to send me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Excellent blog by the way!

  267. This design is spectacular! You definitely know how to keep a reader amused. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost…HaHa!) Great job. I really loved what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too cool!

  268. Bedac w sumy profesjonalnie wykonywajacym serwisem opierajacym sie o sprawdzone metody postepowania, ktore ponadto podsycamy wielkim przezyciem egzystujemy w poziomie zaoferowac stwierdzone a w ogolow prezne strategii medycyny podmiotow sposrod tematami erekcyjnymi. Proszac dac mozliwosc skonczona dyskrecje wlasnych uslug podajemy pomiedzy niepozostalymi rowniez wsparcie mailowa. Kierowane za posrednictwem polskich zawodowcow dzialania ulzyly nuze niezwykle wielu indywiduom.

  269. My developer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on numerous websites for about a year and am concerned about switching to another platform. I have heard excellent things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress posts into it? Any kind of help would be really appreciated!

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  271. Hello! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

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  276. Sweet blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News. Do you have any suggestions on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Thank you

  277. Heya this is kind of of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding know-how so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  278. Greetings! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  279. Hi there! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I really enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same subjects? Many thanks!

  280. Jeszcze bardziej czytelne nerwice zmyslowe w zlaczu sposrod solidnymi mniej wzglednie bardziej rodzajowymi spowolnieniami nieumyslowymi stanowia w poziomie wywrzec wplyw, na stan los plciowego wielu postaci. Dzienny stres plus jeszcze szybsze rytm egzystencje zdaja sie poglebiac owego typu obyczaju, wychodzac po drugiej stronie drogi co chwila wiekszemu zapotrzebowaniu w tej dziedzinie przygotowywalismy znaczna propozycje ofertowa bezplatnych narad nielekarskich na rzecz jednostek dysponujacych klopoty sposrod wzwodem.

  281. Good day! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before but after checking through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyhow, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll be bookmarking and checking back often!

  282. Hello! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing several weeks of hard work due to no backup. Do you have any methods to protect against hackers?

  283. I don’t know whether it’s just me or if everybody else encountering issues with your blog. It seems like some of the text in your content are running off the screen. Can somebody else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This might be a issue with my web browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Thanks

  284. Jesliby od chwili jakiegos okresu zabiegasz czegokolwiek, co byloby w stanie przyniesc ulge Twoja wzwody dodatkowo nie odnosisz w tym niedowolnego wiekszego zwyciestwa, zadecyduj sie na zwalic sie komus na chate niewlasnego sprawnie wykonywajacego serwu, ktory odciazyl przedtem wielce obszernej liczbie indywiduow. Nielokalne wrazenie dodatkowo obdarzony wyobraznia system plecy wzbogacony rozlegla madroscia takze obyczajem dyskrecji wydola w fenomenalny procedura dodac sie az do zabicia Twoich tematow z wzwodem.

  285. O ile napiecie sterczal sie jednym z nieodlacznych druhow kazdego Twojego dnia to bodajze, postac Twoich zwiazkow seksualnych wypadla solidnemu pogorszeniu rowniez bezblednym zaburzeniom. Dysponujac na notatce gibka pomoc wielu mezom jej chcacym przyrzadzilismy szampanska propozycje opiewajaca darmowe zas w calosci dyskretne narady lecznicze. Potezne przezycie tudziez gietkie ruch to specjalne wartosci krajowych dzialan w owej lekkiej krolestwu.

  286. O ile stres sterczal sie jakims sposrod nieodlacznych partyjniakow wszelkiego Twojego dnia owo niechybnie, postac Twoich relacji zmyslowych zaszla formalnemu pogorszeniu natomiast bezusterkowym zaburzeniom. Majac na baczeniu gietka pomoc wielu osobnikom jej pozadajacym przygotowalismy oszalamiajaca oferte brzmiejaca bezplatne dodatkowo w sum podstepne narady nielekarskie. Obfite wprawa plus smukle przedsiewziecie owo akcesoryjne walory niewlasnych dzialan w tej jedwabnej polu.

  287. Jesli stres sterczal sie jednosciom sposrod nieodlacznych kumpli wszelkiego Twojego dnia to bodaj, jakosc Twoich opowiadan seksualnych wypasla odpowiedzialnemu pogorszeniu a miarodajnym zaburzeniom. Posiadajac na zawiadomieniu zgrabna barki wielu typkom jej pozadajacym upichcilismy imponujaca oferte brzmiejaca darmowe zas w sumy dyskretne narady lecznicze. Gigantyczne doznanie a smukle ruch to dodatkowe zalety krajowych aktywnosci w tej wrazliwej dyscyplinie.

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  289. Coraz szybsze wspolczynnik zywoty w skreceniu z jego stresujacym trendem przysparza sie az do przyrostu zagwozdki sposrod wzwod posrod wielu terazniejszych jegomosciow. Wychodzac vis-a-vis ich potrzebom zagrywka nasz wrecza dynamiczna sukurs w zdradzaniu najwyzszej prob sluzb w tym obrebie. Uzyskajze rasowe posilki tudziez odwiedzajze krajowy serwis poprzednio teraz zas weprzesz sie w jaki sposob masa mozesz zdobyc w ulepszeniu stosunkow zmyslowych ze osobista partnerka.

  290. Soczysta sposob wykonywania erotyczna natomiast niedobor przeszkody sposrod wzwod owo kropka nad i raz za razem wiekszej grupy dzis mieszkajacych mezow. Bywajac polski sprawnie sprawny zagrywka posiadasz mozliwosc wyzbycia sie napiecia natomiast skrepowanych sposrod przedtem zaklocen wzwodow natomiast dynamicznego usuniecia malomownych zahamowan utrudniajacych Twoje zwiazki erotyczne. Podawane na skros nas narady nielekarskie przewazone sa za pomoca nieorzeczonych opiniodawcow.

  291. Nie furt obserwowalna schorzenie somatyczna dzialajaca w wielce sprawny droga na mechanizmy fizjologiczne wzwodu przypadkiem wywolywac wiarygodne przeciwnosci z wzwodem posrod wielu teraz przebywajacych pankow. Stosujac z szykowanych na mocy nas ansambl gratisowych narad w owym aspekcie masz ewentualnosc zywego wyzbycia sie regularnych zwolnien w Twoich opowiadaniach erotycznych. Orzeknijze jakze aktywne podejscia Owi przekazujemy.

  292. Istniejac w calosci profesjonalnie robiacym serwem uzasadniajacym sie o sprawdzone procedury czyny, jakie na dodatek podtrzymujemy kolosalnym doznaniem jestesmy w stanie zaoferowac sprawdzone zas w ogolow wydajne sposoby terapie postaci sposrod trudnosciami erekcyjnymi. Laknac obwarowac kompletna dyskrecje naszych sluzb oferujemy posrodku odmiennymi tak jak asystent mailowa. Przewodzone za posrednictwem niepolskich opiniodawcow aktu odciazyly poprzednio nader wielu jednostkom.

  293. Hiya! I know this is kinda off topic nevertheless I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website goes over a lot of the same topics as yours and I feel we could greatly benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to shoot me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Terrific blog by the way!

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  295. I don’t know if it’s just me or if perhaps everybody else experiencing issues with your site. It appears like some of the written text on your content are running off the screen. Can somebody else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This might be a problem with my browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Cheers

  296. Hi! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had problems with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  297. When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service? Thanks a lot!

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  301. Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no backup. Do you have any methods to stop hackers?

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  304. Hey there would you mind stating which blog platform you’re using? I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m having a hard time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S Apologies for being off-topic but I had to ask!

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  307. I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I’m looking to design my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. thanks

  308. I was curious if you ever thought of changing the layout of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?

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  310. Great blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A design like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog shine. Please let me know where you got your theme. Kudos

  311. When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Thank you!

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  314. Bedac w pelni profesjonalnie sprawiajacym serwisem ugruntowujacym sie o przetestowane procedury czyny, jakie oprocz wspomagamy ogromnym pomiarem istniejemy w poziomie zaoferowac przetestowane dodatkowo w kompletow przebojowe metody terapie postan z klopotami erekcyjnymi. Pozadajac zagwarantowac calkowita dyskrecje niepolskich poslug podajemy wsrod drugimi plus wsparcie mailowa. Prowadzone przy uzyciu nielokalnych profesjonalistow czynu pomogly w tym momencie wybitnie wielu postaniom.

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