El Banco Central gana tiempo

Pero hay que mirar de cerca las paritarias y los subsidios para monitorear la inflación del año.

Con la devaluación del oficial y la absorción de pesos mediante licitación de Letras y Notas a tasas cercanas al 30% anual, el Banco Central pudo estimular a los exportadores a apurar el ingreso de divisas y contener así la tormenta cambiaria.

Sin embargo, todos los economistas coinciden en que la estrategia del ente monetario solo ayuda a ganar tiempo. La inflación y el gasto público del 2014 serán críticos para completar la tarea: la inflación no debe dejar atrasado nuevamente al dólar y el gasto debe detener su crecimiento para que el Banco Central no se vea obligado a emitir nuevamente.

La adopción de medidas de este tenor parece estar en carpeta del Gobierno, en especial en materia de reducción de subsidios de energía y transporte. Esas decisiones serían adoptadas más por necesidad que por convicción, pero representarían un beneficio sustancioso para las inversiones en pesos.

Por eso, seguir de cerca el nivel general de paritarias, el déficit fiscal primario y la quita de subsidios será importante para monitorear la inflación del año.

De todas maneras, los rendimientos que ofrecen los títulos en moneda extranjera hacen que cualquier inversión en pesos sea considerada más que nada como diversificación.

El Boden 2015 permite comprar para octubre de 2015, antes de las elecciones, US$114 por cada $1000 (una TIR en dólares de 13% anual aproximadamente con el precio off-shore del bono) y es un título que se mantiene relativamente ajeno al conflicto con los holdouts, un tema que volvió a escena estos días.

El pasado martes el Gobierno presentó la apelación a la Corte Suprema de Justicia de Estados Unidos del fallo de la Corte de Apelaciones. En abril, mes en que el máximo tribunal publicará los casos a tratar durante el próximo período, la Corte podría decidir si toma el caso, no pronunciarse o rechazarlo.

La última opción pondría inmediatamente en vigencia el fallo del tribunal de segunda instancia y forzaría a la Argentina a pagarles a los litigantes el total de lo adeudado al contado.

Caso contrario, se le descontarán de los pagos que haga a través del Bank of New York Mellon, obligándolo a incumplir las condiciones de emisión de la deuda y permitiendo reclamar la aceleración de los pagos de los títulos del canje (default).

La presentación de la apelación, que no causó ninguna sorpresa, volvió a introducir lentamente la cautela en el mercado.

Bonos

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