DUELO ENTRE TASAS Y DOLARES

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El martes vencían cerca de 11.000 millones de pesos de una letra del Banco Central, y en la licitación existía la duda de cómo iba a reaccionar la autoridad monetaria con el nivel de tasas. El resultado de la licitación sorprendió al mercado: el BCRA bajó levemente las tasas de interés y aun así colocó más de $ 28.000 millones. En términos netos, terminó absorbiendo $ 17.000 millones de la plaza financiera reduciendo las tasas respecto de la licitación pasada. La enorme cantidad de circulante venía bajando las tasas de interés en el mercado secundario de Lebacs, aunque existía la duda –falsa- para la nueva licitación.

Por otro lado, tras la apertura del cepo cambiario el dólar cotizó con fuertes ofertas de venta por la liquidación de exportaciones, recién estabilizándose en el orden de los $ 12,90 para el martes y aumentando a alrededor de $ 13,05 el miércoles. La caída del dólar afectó los precios generales de los activos locales, pero ello no implicó un alivio para el mercado en cuanto a que la remoción del cepo haya transcurrido con pericia y tranquilidad. Las dudas para los inversores consisten en la evolución del tipo de cambio tras el salto discreto y la conveniencia de pasarse a activos con rendimiento en tasa de interés en pesos, también aprovechando el salto momentáneo de la misma.

Desafortunadamente, el inversor minorista tiene menos instrumentos de inversión para pasarse a tasa de interés. Tan sólo puede acceder a plazos fijos tradicionales y bonos que paguen una tasa variable promedio del plazo fijo mayorista. Desafortunadamente, estos últimos instrumentos tiene un rendimiento bajo por la fuerte inversión de inversores institucionales que se vuelcan a ellos por su liquidez, por más que podrían sacar mejores tasas con bonos corporativos privados o deuda provincial.

Los inversores minoristas aún pueden aprovechar los excesivos rendimientos de los instrumentos “dólar-linked”, que por el desarme de posiciones tras el salto del dólar oficial cotizan a precios bajos en dólares. El NDG21, bono de la provincia de Neuquén, llega a rendir el doble que el Bonar X (AA17), aun con una duración promedio similar. Si bien el titulo soberano paga en dólares billete, con un libre acceso al mercado de cambios es indistinta la cobranza en pesos o dólares, e incluso podría facilitar la operatoria de reinversión el pago directamente en pesos del que goza el NDG21.

Para aquellos más conservadores, la tasa de interés en pesos es una opción también atractiva, y seguramente tras una última revaluación de activos locales (cuando se arregle eventualmente el conflicto con los fondos buitre) será la inversión financiera local más rentable. Para poder acceder a instrumentos de inversión como Obligaciones Negociables o Letras Provinciales pero resolviendo el problema de escasa liquidez que padecen, se puede optar por buscar fondos comunes de inversión que inviertan en estos instrumentos (casi todos los bancos ofrecen sus fondos a través de internet). Las carteras de los fondos comunes pueden verse en el sitio Web de la Cámara de Fondos Comunes de Inversión, como así también en los sitios de cada administradora.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 27.12.2015

 

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