DOS POSICIONES PARA UN MISMO OBJETIVO -la nota de la semana-

 

 

 

 

 

sciolijuego

Los inversores internacionales y locales ponen a prueba su capacidad de análisis e intuición. En efecto, todo hace suponer que GRECIA no se pondrá de  acuerdo con sus acreedores, con lo que esto significa para la comunidad financiera internacional y como ejemplo negativo y peligroso por su “efecto domino”. Por otro lado, la FED no descarta un incremento de tasas a mediano plazo, si se confirma la recuperación económica de EE. UU. En nuestro país la designación de Zannini como Vice de Scioli fue interpretada por el mercado que la mentada “continuidad CON cambio” se trastocaba por  “continuidad SIN cambio” (hasta que se pueda) y que el apartamiento de RANDAZZO confirmaba quien detenta el  poder. De esta forma quedan definidas dos posiciones con vistas a las próximas elecciones. Lo de SCIOLI se toma como una “negociación” con la sola intención de “ganar” y las de MACRI-SANZ-MASSA-DE LA SOTA como la imposición de una convicción para “ganar , gobernar y cambiar”. Definidas las posiciones, no existe la posibilidad de error: el  ciudadano decide su propio destino con su voto. Con relación al comportamiento bursátil, no hay que desesperar. Para tomar decisiones se deben considerar DOS etapas. Hasta las elecciones de Octubre no se deben esperar grandes cambios con lo que el deterioro de los índices se mantendrá. Con posterioridad, el propio mercado impondrá los ajustes que sean necesarios independientemente de quien gobierna. La diferencia estará en la premura de su aplicación, la orientación política, la firmeza y consenso, la afectación de cada sector. Como “no hay mal que por bien no venga” siempre una caída bursátil presenta una posibilidad de ganancia para los inversores de mediano plazo. Después de un periodo de alza es positivo  una depuración de las plazas para retomar posiciones y esperar. Se requiere no apurar decisiones, analizar fundamentos y especialmente, investigar resistencia a la baja y poder histórico de reacción. También es importante mejorar las carteras mediante cambios cuando es necesario.

Héctor Tavares

9.262 comentarios

  1. observador

    Disiento con Hector. No se trata de la continuidad sin cambios, el mercado en realidad teme a la profundizacion del modelo, pasando a su fase mas salvaje, las expropiaciones, al mejor estilo chavista. Scioli es la remake de De la Rua, – un moderado sin caracter – con la diferencia que de segundo no hay un Alvarez renunciante, sino un maoista dispuesto a llevar a la Argentina al abismo con tal de logar sus fines. Tiempos negros. Fin de semana se esperan encuestas con el nuevo escenario.

  2. Javier Aguirre

    2016-2017, Acordate lo que te digo , giro a la la centro derecha de los K, no tienen ideología definida, votaron privatizacion de YPF, Cargill , Dreifus, Monsanto , no hubieran hecho tanto dinero cono en esta epoca K, los bancos con ganancias monumentales, el vice de la Ucede, Milani represor, convenios con petroleras multi, frigorificos todos extrangeros, gran parte de los labortaorios medicinales comprados por grupos chilenos, subsidio de gas y luz que aprovechan los mas pudientes, con luz y gas pagando migajas en sus cantries, mientras los mas pobres con garrafas sociales, clase alta viajando de regalo a Miami y pagando con tarjeta, jubilados ganando menos de 600 dolares por mes, 25 % pobreza.Y la lista seria interminable¡¡¡¡¡¡

    ¿Me pueden explicar donde esta el gobierno de izquierda?, lo que quiero decir que el k no tiene ideologia, si mañana hay que privatizar van a privatizar…..acordate los k son cualquier cosa.

  3. Opino que el mercado con estos precios ya ha tomado en cuenta un triunfo de Scioli como inevitable. No hay que descartar cambios en las tendencias y una clase media con temor a una “chavización” del modelo político-económico que decida votar por los candidatos de la oposición. Los precios de las empresas argentinas son totalmente ridículos y cualquier cambio de tendencia en las encuestas puede provocar un alza importante en los precios. El ajuste el mercado ya lo ha hecho con caídas en los precios de las acciones del orden del 20/30%. Además hoy terminó el vencimiento de las opciones. No hay que descartar un ajuste alcista en los precios. El fuerte volumen negociado ayer y hoy así lo estarían indicando.

  4. lemagiscien

    En esta oportunidad comparto plenamente tu opinión Héctor.
    Soy de la idea que habrá más derrape a la inversa de las subidas tempranas ante las expectativas de desinfle de esta política. Hay que estar atentos a las “oportunidades” y poder ver las mejores alternativas para el momento que se transita, las que ofrecen buena defensa de la inversión como son los papeles de afuera incluido TS y alguna perla que supo crecer en los peores momentos transcurridos y es refractaria a las movidas políticas. Lo de afuera en lo cercano aparece como una amenaza importante tambien. Como siempre una buena lectura de la realidad hace a la ganancia bursátil. Saludos

  5. ALB

    LEMAGISCIEN sos un capo conocedor de SAMI , gané un montón el año pasado siguiendote. Hace poco me saltó el stop pero volvi a entrar un poquito en 37, te parece que está para seguir entrando ? o conviene esperar ?

    JAVIER AGUIRRE coincido bastante , me sorprende escuchar cosas que son repetidas sin pensar de lo que dicen algunos multimedios, por cuestiones laborales estoy bastante en contacto y charlamos con productores y pseudo o experiodistas de los 2 grandes multimedios y es increiíle como la gente repite como loro lo que sale al aire pero ellos tambien piensan diferente a lo que sale al aire. Es un negocio se trata de nros , de plata . No todo está mal como nos quieren hacer creer unos ni todo bien como los otros dicen , sorprende el fanatismo donde tenemos que ser fríos y analizar la realidad… no la de la tv. Donde no coincido es donde decís que los k son cualquier cosa , creo que no son cualquier cosa , son pragmáticos , hacen lo necesario p llenarse de guita sea c políticas de Izq o der.

    Pocas veces las empresas , bancos y demas han ganado tanta guita como ahora , de que izq hablan ???
    gente , a estudiar y menos fanatismo que eso hace perder plata.

  6. lemagiscien

    ALB te agradezco y me alegra. Pienso que aquí las respuestas las debemos esperar de HT quien tiene muchísimo para decir en su generoso espacio. Para un intercambio más personal con gusto podemos hacerlo en algun foro. Saludos

  7. Sergio

    No se entienden algunos comentarios que tratan de estupidos a la gente. No hace falta leer los diarios o ver tv. La inflacion esta en la gondola, la inseguridad esta en la calle, la corrupcion la ves en cada barrio con ese politico que paso del duna al mercedes. Asi que no mientan con el tema de culpar a los medios, vivimos en un lodo que por mas que quieren ocultarlo, la realidad mata relato.

  8. Martin

    Coincido con la nota. Hay que estar atentos a lo politico. Yo creo que la formula con Zannini resta votos y esos votos restados van para Macri. En las paso se van a poder definir varios interrogantes, ahi se vera realmente cuantos votos saca c/u y si la diferencia entre Scioli y Macri es tan grande como dicen. El mercado esta atento a eso, si la diferencia no es mucha el mercado va a festejar y si la diferencia es grande va a haber una correccion que puede ser una oportunidad de compra. Despues queda el tema cambiario, que gradual, o no, se va a ajustar. Por ahora el mercado resiste arriba de los 11.200 puntos, pero con bajas similares a las de ayer saltan varios stop loss y ahi va para abajo. “Wait and see” por ahora y en moneda dura o bonos.

    HECTOR que me puede decir del Deutsche-Bank. Dicen que puede caer, al estilo de Lehman Brothers. Si bien en principio fue un rumor, ya pasaron varias cosas que hacen suponer que ese rumor va tomando forma de verdad. Cambiaron a directivos importantes de un plumazo y la caida de este banco me parece que afectaria a nuestro mercado.

  9. JUAN DEL REY ALZAGA

    Estimado Hector,

    Coincido contigo en todos estos años, que tenemos en este mundo bursatil que hemos compartido varias vivencias, muchos operadores de mercados no vieron una REAL baja de mercado, creemos que continuara la baja, que chequera mata todo… y hasta despues de las PASO, habra una FUERTE CORRECCION que todo el mundo creera que termino, volviendo a precios nuevamente previos a Marzo.
    Vemos una GGAL en $ 18,00 $ 20, una Pampa en $ 6.- una Erar con un balance bastante pobre en $ 5
    Falta mucho y la oposicion no mostrara signos de juntarse hasta el ballotage.

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