DICA ES EL TITULO PREFERIDO

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La absorción del Banco Central durante diciembre y enero tuvo su contracara en los vencimientos de febrero, ya que la autoridad monetaria siempre se concentró en el plazo más corto. Durante febrero, vencerán nada más y nada menos que el 46% de los pasivos en Letras del Banco Central, un número enorme. Habitualmente, esto implicaría una suba en las tasas de interés ya que si se espera que la entidad que dirige Sturzenegger no vuelque una cantidad considerable de pesos al mercado debería esforzarse para reabsorberlo. Y en el mercado de letras, esforzarse significa pagar más interés. Pero la paradoja es que los inversores institucionales tienen mayor dificultad para aplicar el dinero a buenas tasas y las Letras son el instrumento más líquido que tienen. En otras palabras, se estará más dispuesto a colocar los vencimientos a la tasa que resulte que correr el riesgo de quedar afuera.

En los momentos de tasas en descenso, la mejor opción para quienes no necesitan disponibilidad inmediata del dinero es tomar plazos más largos. Los ahorristas pueden aprovechar a tomar mayor plazo (y tasa) para realizar depósitos a plazo fijo, como también aprovechar los títulos públicos que pagan interés de plazo fijo mayorista como el AO17 y el PR15 (este último más largo). Para hacer inversiones más largas habrá que buscar los bonos que ajustan por el índice oficial de precios. Actualmente el Banco Central, quien calcula el coeficiente CER que utilizan los títulos públicos, se encuentra utilizando el índice de la CABA, aunque no ha dado especificaciones de cómo lo continuará. El próximo cálculo debería computar la elevada inflación de diciembre y la suba de tarifas podría impactar en los subsiguientes. Los títulos más largos como el DICP y el CUAP son los que más capitalizarían una suba.

Otra posibilidad no menor es que parte de los vencimientos de febrero se trasladen a una mayor demanda de dólares en el mercado oficial. Los inversores minoristas pueden tomar ventaja con los bonos provinciales «dólar-link» que se encuentran además con rendimientos altos superiores al 11% anual en dólares. Para inversiones más moderadas el NDG21 continúa siendo la opción más segura y rentable, mientras que para apuestas más fuertes los títulos largos de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires tienen menor rendimiento, pero capitalizarían una mayor suba en caso de ser altamente demandados estos instrumentos durante febrero.

El rendimiento de los soberanos en dólares tendrá poca relación con la situación de la tasa de interés local debido a que la liberación del cepo cambiario aún no es total. Una mayor demanda de dólares podría traducirse en un incremento del precio del dólar, pero los títulos no generarían una ganancia en dólares per-se. Los inversores más grandes apuestan a un arreglo con los fondos buitre que alinee las tasas del país con los pares sudamericanos. El DICA es el título de preferencia por su alta liquidez, el fuerte cupón anual que recupera rápidamente la inversión en caso de no darse un escenario positivo y la capacidad de capitalizar buena ganancia si se reduce el riesgo país.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 31.1.2016

3.991 comentarios

  1. Daniel

    Buenos dias maestro?

    Tiene idea a qué se debe la baja tan abrupta de CTIO? Y como la ve en estos dias?

    Gracias!

    SDs!

  2. Juan Carlos

    Constantini nos la puso a todos y la CNV no hace nada como siempre.

    Van a bajar el papel y despues rescatarán las acciones a precios de regalo supongo.

    • Mat

      Me parece que estás equivocado Juan Carlos. No es la intención de Costantini retirar a CTIO de la oferta pública. Al menos es lo que yo sé, Héctor podrá clarificar. Saludos.

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  198. Efektywnosc przekazywanego za sprawa nas protekcje w obszarze kuracje rzeczy erekcyjnych jest w dniu nowoczesnym niejaka sposrod posiadajacych bog indeks uciecha naszych eksploatatorow. Nalezyta ocena postawiona za pomoca wlasnych ekspertow w gratisowych naradach lekarskich stanowi w stanie w obfity rozwiazanie ulepszyc Twoje byt zmyslowe. W oddali rutynowymi wynikami w tym zakresie przedkladamy dodatkowo totalnie przygotowana pomocnik mailowa na rzecz niewlasnych pacjentow.

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  200. Skonczona bieglosc zmyslowa rowniez odpad raf z wzwod owo finisz jeszcze wiekszej grupy teraz mieszkajacych jegomosci. Bywajac wlasny sprawnie energiczny zagrywka posiadasz szansa wyzbycia sie napiecia dodatkowo sklejonych z nim zaburzen erekcji a przebojowego zabicia cichych spowolnien utrudniajacych Twoje stosunki seksualne. Oferowane na mocy nas narady lekarskie kierowane istnieja dzieki orzeczonych specjalistow.

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