DESESPERADOS POR LOS PESOS

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De manera esperable, la continua baja en la tasa de licitación de las letras del Banco Central a 35 días llevó a los inversores -principalmente a los institucionales- a una búsqueda por títulos a buena tasa que hayan quedado rezagados de la época del 38% anual. La demanda primero impactó en los bonos que pagan interés variable Badlar, que llegaron a tener rendimientos de hasta por debajo de la tasa mayorista de plazo fijo. En las últimas dos semanas se trasladó notoriamente hacia los bonos ajustables por CER, que redujeron su rendimiento en pesos indexados de un modo acelerado. Finalmente, las colocaciones de instrumentos ilíquidos como letras provinciales y bonos corporativos privados también mostraron una fuerte demanda de inversores.
En estos momentos el inversor minorista debe mirar con cautela donde pisa, ya que cuando bajan las tasas y los grandes compran todo lo que rinda mucho se suele pagar lo mismo tanto por buenos como por malos activos. O visto de otra manera, se puede pagar de más, como ocurrió con los bonos que pagan Badlar. Estos instrumentos llegaron a niveles bajos que ahora lateralizan o caen mientras los inversores salen a buscar el resto de los activos. Es probable que los otros instrumentos también se lleguen a sobredemandar, especialmente porque se subestiman los riesgos asociados a esa estrategia. Por ejemplo, si el Banco Central decidiera estabilizar los niveles actuales de interés de las Lebacs (improbable pero no imposible), los bonos asociados a expectativas bajistas de la tasa caerían sensiblemente.
De los bonos ajustables por CER, los instrumentos más largos son los que brindan mayor cobertura ante cambios en las expectativas de interés de corto plazo. Esto es porque el mayor flujo del bono es a futuro, mientras que los cortos como el NF18 dependen enteramente de la comparación mes a mes del ajuste CER versus la tasa de Lebacs. El DICP, el PARP y el CUAP, a pesar de las importantes subas que tuvieron, mantienen un mejor margen de maniobra frente a la volatilidad de las tasas de interés, mientras que ofrecen un razonable rendimiento del 4,5% anual por encima del ajuste de un índice que se está presumiendo confiable.
Aquellos más conservadores que les interese conservar su capital en dólares pueden aprovechar las licitaciones primarias de Letras del Tesoro que el gobierno nacional está realizando cada dos semanas. En la última se ofreció una nueva letra a 240 días con un rendimiento interesante del 4% anual. Estos títulos pueden suscribirse en pesos al tipo de cambio de la Comunicación “A” 3.500 del Banco Central, que es un promedio del mercado mayorista. En la última licitación los pesos se aceptaban a $ 13,7725, cuando el tipo de cambio vendedor de un banco comercial no bajaba de $ 14. Adicionalmente la tasa pagada es similar o superior a la obtenible mediante el Bonar X (AA17), sin pagar comisiones de transacción.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 19.6.2016

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3.290 comentarios

  1. Ruben

    Arranca la bolsa ,…se vuela todo ,…!!!
    Afuera tooodo verde,…!!!
    Mañana los ADRs siguen con fuertes subas,.!!!
    Esto recien empieza,….!!!
    Es el turno de la bolsa,…a prepararse,.!!!

  2. Ruben

    Martincho,….estas equivocado,…la bolsa va a arrojar excelentes rindes a fin de año.
    Todavia falta mucho a recorrer y esto recien empieza.
    Recorda siempre q la bolsa le gana a todo,…!!!
    Bancos, energeticas, del lider subiran fuertes y del general hay muchas.

  3. Martincho

    Sigo a full con Cresud a pesar de que ya no saben que hacer para que baje, la banco una semana mas y si no pasa nada me paso todo al Francés o Macro y tambien alguna fichita a COME no se le puede negar, hasta 3 tira

  4. Histórico

    Todo en verde en WS. Mucha atención con PBR más del 5% de suba. Muy interesante artículo en WS Journal en La Nación de hoy con su plan de desendeudamiento y nuevas alianzas de producción. Su precio está llegando a 7 dólares cuando en noviembre 2014 estaba en 17 dólares. Mucho margen para subir todavía.

  5. Histórico

    Obra pública, articulo La Nación de hoy:
    Caputo S.A. obras adjudicadas en la CONAE por casi $ 800 millones.
    Dycasa tiene adjudicaciones en CABA por $ 166,5 millones.
    Se viene la suba de las constructoras.

  6. Javier Aguirre

    Lo que plantea Martincho ,adhiero , lo unico que se vende es primera necesidad , esta muy mal la situacion en el comercio, pero tambien esta el otro prisma donde ver la situacion, si supuestamentente en 2017 estariamos mejor y la bolsa es anticipacion, es una conclucion para ver que empresas comprar, yo por ahora estoy con Macro y Frances , no diversifique pero si pegan un salto compro Agro-Ctio-Pamp-Jmin- Sami -Come(que por ahora estan en precio)y sigo teniendo el Macro largo tiempo que tiene un futuro ENORME, independientemente si compra el Citi.

    Nos vemos ,Javier

  7. Arafue están apostando al BREXIT a favor de que GB se quede en el corral europeo. Mañana se sabrá, pero más allá de ello la espuma se disipa. Hay sectores como el petrolero que vienen mejorando pero me parece más incierta que entusiasta la situación inmediata de las Bolsas. Aquí en Venus, la porno a full y nos siguen cog por ahora. Hay sectores que puntualmente pueden resurgir episódicamente, pero las subas que vimos y que muchos extrañan/amos no creo que las volvamos a ver por un buen tiempo. Wait and see o wait outside to see o inversion a largo en uno o dos buenos papeles. Hay momentos históricos en la coyuntura económico político financiera de un país o en las circunstancias por las que puntualmente cae a pedazos un papel (YPF luego de su nacionalización, APBR cuando cayó a 20 mangos, TS a menos de u$s19, etc.) en que las arcas de la inversión pueden tomar un vértigo de suba geométrica produciendo una exaltacion quasi hipnótica en muchos inversores. Pero la mayor parte del tiempo bursátil se parece más a lo anodino actual, donde sólo quienes tienen el dato posta o la persistencia del verdadero trader hacen diferencias que en un mes suman.

    Yo por el momento estoy adentro con CELU, CRES y calls PAMP.
    SAMI me gustó siempre y a la larga es infalible, CTIO me parece que se va poniendo interesante con el correr del tiempo, TS fue gran oportunidad de un mes a esta parte y quizás siga. TRAN or salir del MERVAL está sobrevendida mal. CAPEX eterno Pastor Mentiroso, puede ser que pronto tome algún vuelo interesante.
    PESA puede ser oportunidad pero hay que tener ganas de embarrarse.

    Pero en lo inmediato, Julio, no me parece que vaya a ser justamente un buen mes para la Bolsa sino todo lo contrario. Ojalá me equivoque.

    Saludos

  8. Daniel

    Me parece que Cresud se quedó sin nafta,en los feriados se nota que los compradores son argentinos porque no hay volumen en ADRS.Siempre se habló de los campos subvaluados y lateraliza desde hace años.Lo nuevo es el holding en Israel ,pero no leo en hebreo y para mí es una incógnita.Conozco la opinión del Lic Tavares pero quisiera saber la del grupo.

  9. Todas las cotizantes que ADRS cotizando en USA, toman esa referencia, para sus cotizaciones, 3n sus paises de origen. Por eso para mi es impoible que las pueda PISAR, o hacerle hinchada o loby, para hacerlas subir. La unica referencia valida es WS.

  10. Ruben

    Mañana el merval ya arrancara con plaza de APBR,….y se vendran alguna mas en el transcurso del dia estimo,….!!! fuerte suba tendra el merval,….y si encima la tasa baja mas de lo esperado,….el miercoles preparense,….!!!
    Vamos a ver como reacciona Comercial del Plata,….si ya como pinta todo no arranaca,….es para preocuparse en ese papel.
    Sigo con Pampa a full, bancos, y panel general,…. Sami, Grimoldi, Tgn, Ceco, y hay algunas perlas mas,…en fin,…!!! muy buena pinta la bolsa,….para mi ya arranco,…..!!!

  11. Daniel, hoy El Cronista titula:
    «El campo pronostica inversiones por u$s 58.000 millones en 2016».
    El link es: http://www.cronista.com/economiapolitica/El-campo-pronostica-inversiones-por-us-58.000-millones-en-2016-20160620-0067.html
    El articulo es interesante y reafirma la primera transformación que se da en el pais con el cambio de gobierno y el pasaje de una política restrictiva para el campo a otra generosa por más. Guste o no guste impresiona así y no requiere de mayores cambios en la política gubernamental que los ya dados. Aqui la ganancia tiene nombre y se llama CRESUD. Impresiona que el beneficio es inmediato, no así para otros buenos rubros que requieren implementaciones, puestas en marcha, espera de desarrollo de vientres y/o ajustes mayores de recursos.

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  67. The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

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  70. Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

  71. If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.

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