¿CUÁNTO VALE PESA? – la nota de la semana

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Mientras se espera el resultado de las PASO en nuestro país, trataremos de facilitar el análisis del
real valor de PESA a la luz de la oferta de U$S 1200 millones que se dejo trascender
y que se concretaría a mediados de agosto.
En primer lugar debemos considerar si la oferta es por el 67.50% que posee el grupo mayoritario
 o sólo por algunos de sus activos.
ALTERNATIVA I: En caso que se venda el 67.50% de las acciones por U$S 1200
millones. el 100% representaría U$S 1778 millones que a una cotización de $9.30 por dólar
significaría un valor por acción de $ 8.19 (Capital $2019 millones).- Si la cotización
del dólar se toma a $13.( valor real considerado razonable para diciembre 2015) el
valor por acción ascendería a $11.45.El valor patrimonial al 31.3.15 era de $6.68
pero debe tenerse en cuenta que el Ajuste Contable por Inflación se suspendió en el
año 2003 y que no se considera "valor llave" o el "Plus" que le aportan sus últimas
inversiones, especialmente en gas.

ALTERNATIVA II: En caso que sólo se vendan algunos activos, se hace necesario conocer 
con precisión cuáles serán. En su ACTIVO NO CORRIENTE se contabilizan Inversiones 
en Compañías Asociadas, inversiones en negocios  conjuntos, Propiedades, Plantas y Equipos 
por $14.666 millones. 
Allí se incluyen: áreas petroleras y de gas, la Refinería de Bahía Blanca, 100 Estaciones de Servicio,
acciones de TGS, la Central Térmica Genelba, la Hidroeléctrica Pichi Picun Leifú y
Plantas Petroquímicas en Bahía Blanca y Santa Fe. Aquello que no se venda permanecerá en
el Activo de PESA (Residual), además de su Activo Corriente integrado por Efectivo,
Cuentas a Cobrar, Otros Créditos e Inventarios que al 31.3.15 suman $8.861 millones.
La inversión en Venezuela, luego de elevadas Previsiones por desvalorización, aun
tiene un valor residual en su Balance de $2750 millones.
 Otra gran duda serán los pasivos originados en los Activos que se transfieren.
 ¿Quién los absorbe? Como vemos existen demasiadas incógnitas para llegar a una conclusión final.
En todo caso proporcionamos elementos para una buena "tarea para el hogar".

Héctor Tavares

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    Leí un artículo que dice que la empresa quiere vender un paquete de activos que incluye áreas productivas, 1 destilería, 100 estaciones de servicioy 1 complejo químico en santa fe…supuestamente la empresa quiere vender el paquete a un único comprador que en principio seria YPF, quien compraría todo esto para luego revenderlo fraccionado a distintas empresas más pequeñas! Veremos…

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