COMIENZA EL ATERRIZAJE

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La muy criticada política de tasas de interés elevadas comenzó a transitar su fin. El pasado martes en su habitual licitación semanal el Banco Central cortó en niveles del 37,5% anual desde el habitual 38% que licitaba anteriormente. Más simbólica que otra cosa, la baja en la tasa parece ser una señal que la autoridad monetaria le manda al mercado haciéndole notar que estos niveles no se van a sostener por mucho tiempo. Es muy probable que antes de fin de mayo se vea una baja muy sensible, al menos de la misma magnitud de donde subió.

El momento no es casual, ya que por un lado mayo sería el último mes de inflación elevada tras absorber los últimos aumentos tarifarios y asimismo se liquidaría el último bloque de posiciones a futuro abiertas por Vanoli. Esto último se da como correlato de una esperada recuperación del dólar en el momento que desciendan las tasas de interés, ya que ambos muestran una relación inversa.

La pronta expectativa de baja de tasas impactó con fuerza en el mercado de bonos. Los inversores comenzaron a adelantarse al efecto “crowding out” (o su versión en criollo, efecto “puerta 12”). Esto es, que antes que el dinero colocado en Lebacs se vuelque masivamente a otros activos, muchos comenzaron a hacer sus inversiones en activos de mayor plazo que los 35 días de dichas Letras. Los bonos que ajustan por tasa de interés Badlar bajaron spreads rápidamente (subieron de precio disminuyendo el interés por sobre la Badlar) y también se vieron muy demandados los títulos “dólar-linked” a pesar de la pasividad de la divisa norteamericana.

La fuerte compresión de rendimientos tras la salida del default dejó a los inversores con menores posibilidades de apuestas a ganancias de capital, pero aún se mantienen tasas relativamente altas como para volver atractiva una renta perdurable en el tiempo. Los ahorristas pueden invertir en bonos en dólares largos con rendimientos entre el 7% (Pary) y 7,8% (DICY) anual con legislación Nueva York. También tiene la posibilidad de instrumentos más cortos con mayor tasa pero de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, como el BPMD (7% de rendimiento pero 2 años de duración promedio frente a los 12 del PARY) o el BPLD, con más del 8% de tasa interna de retorno anual. Otra manera de estar invertido en dólares son los provinciales “dólar-linked” que son bastante más cortos que los antes mencionados y con rendimientos similares, si bien la moneda de pago es en pesos.

Otra alternativa interesante son los bonos que ajustan por el índice CER. Si bien fueron castigados en el último tiempo por las idas y venidas respecto al índice provisorio a tomar –cayó mal que se haya elegido arbitrariamente el índice de San Luis únicamente cuando antes se incluía la CABA-, en breve las estadísticas se homogeneizarán y títulos como el Discount en pesos ofrecerá tasas reales superiores al 5% anual, atractivo para el inversor que busca una renta a largo plazo.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 8.5.2016

3.926 comentarios

  1. Histórico

    Coincido con Eduardo Cardenal en la necesidad de una política económica con una abrupta baja de tasas para poder reactivar la economía y salir de la actual recesión económica.
    Me quedo con las inversiones en bonos en dólares. ya que éste se encuentra MUY atrasado y es necesaria la actualización del tipo de cambio para poder exportar y tener superávit comercial.

  2. raul

    la verdad son los resultados: quién siguio las recomendaciones de tavares tuvo un gran rendimiento sobre el promedio.

    y ctio subio mucho desde que se la refiere.

    luego cada uno decide momento, estrategia.

    y vale oro su info y análisis.

  3. Histórico

    Lo informaron en la asamblea. Tienen en estudio desarrollar la producción de paneles para energía solar con dos ingenieros mendocinos.

  4. ELIO

    Según Miguel Bogiano se viene el cataclismo de las bajas en las bolsas mundiales, …. señal de comprar? Dice que no serían excepción Argentina y Brasil, … en una de esas bajen las del primer mundo y los capitales vengan con más ganas por estos Lares? No se cuanto crédito le dan a este muchacho pero siempre fue pesimista con la bolsa local y en el fondo la tendencia no para de subir siempre recomendó mantenerse lejos de las acciones locales. Me parece que no pega una,

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  104. The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

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