COMIENZA A DESPERTAR EL PANEL GENERAL-la nota de la semana-

a levantarse

 

 

El clima bursátil se enrareció por distintas circunstancias. Los análisis pre electorales se complican por encuestas no siempre creíbles pero  influyentes y por acuerdos que pueden modificar las expectativas. Es que el desarrollo futuro de la economía y por ende de la Bolsa, esta íntimamente ligado al resultado eleccionario.

Lo que se suponía una polarización entre SCIOLI y MACRI, hoy se pone en duda ante el  acuerdo de MASSA con DE LA SOTA que cuenta con el apoyo de importante sector peronista y de gremios. La incógnita es a quien le resta votos esta novedad.

En otro orden, las dudas sobre la sustentabilidad de la recuperación de la economía de EE. UU determinó un compás de espera sobre le elevación de tasas, debilitando el dólar y estimulando la fortaleza de otras monedas  y del precio de las “commodities”.

La recuperación del precio del petróleo otorga más tranquilidad a las petroleras, con bastante incidencia en el Merval, al mismo tiempo, que encarece la dependencia energética.

La presentación de los Balances Trimestrales cerrados en marzo, de próxima aparición, dará mayor precisión sobre el futuro inmediato. Mientras tanto, se cosechan dividendos de los Ejercicios cerrados en diciembre.-

Así, MOLINOS RIO anuncia el pago de 36% y TELECOM a partir del 11 de Mayo abonara 83% en efectivo. Ya pagaron Oeste y la primera cuota del dividendo de Rigolleau.

Independientemente de la tendencia diaria del mercado, llama la atención la absorción inusual de algunas especies del panel general. La observación del comportamiento de algunas plazas es la mejor recomendación. El mejor ejemplo es lo ocurrido en el panel líder con COMERCIAL DEL PLATA. Sorprende el volumen de AGROMETAL, cuando se sabe que por estacionalidad el 1º Trimestre es flojo. La valorización de AUSOL, con débiles resultados; CECO2  independientemente de la asistencia oficial, CELULOSA, con elevado pasivo en moneda extranjera; PATY, resurgiendo del ostracismo, GAROVAGLIO y LONGVIE, dependiendo del “Ahora 12”, CONSULTATIO y SEMINO, con trascendidos de una liquidación de acciones por parte de importantes accionistas. En el caso de Consultatio, la oferta se atenuó bastante cuando la Asamblea de Accionistas pospuso para el 8.5.2015 el tratamiento del dividendo en efectivo. Cabe señalar el malestar que causó entre los minoritarios el anuncio del dividendo de 50 millones cuando la empresa ganó muchísimo más. Un papel para seguir mirando es Holcim (ex J.Minetti) que cuenta con un fuerte incremento de volumen.

Otro tema para el análisis es Colorín, que anuncia una excelente suscripción, muy favorable para los accionistas minoritarios en fecha próxima. Desde las redes bursátiles se confundió bastante el último jueves determinando una baja del papel. Lo cierto es que sus accionistas podrán participar de la suscripción por los cupones de sus tenencia más los que puedan comprar durante el período de suscripción. La confusión nació al saberse que obviamente Colorín capitalizará la deuda que tiene a partir de los aportes irrevocables que recibió en los últimos años. La actual Colorín, con un grupo mayoritario europeo de primer nivel no se asimila a la del pasado, donde sus precios oscilaron bruscamente. La empresa promete tener ganancias este año, viene recuperando mercado y hay mucho para crecer. El consumo de pintura de Argentina es 1 a 3 frente a Brasil y 1 a 2 ante Uruguay.

Héctor Tavares

4.079 comentarios

  1. Fredy

    Ante todo, muy buena la pagina…siempre lo leo.
    No me queda en claro a que se refiere en estas lines que pego: “..llama la atención la absorción inusual de algunas especies del panel general. La observación del comportamiento de algunas plazas es la mejor recomendación. El mejor ejemplo es lo ocurrido en el panel líder con COMERCIAL DEL PLATA…”
    Esto significa que estar desarmando esas plazas? Podrá explicarlo un poquito mas?
    Saludos y gracias!!
    Fredy

  2. daniel

    lo felicito hector su aclaracion usted pone nombre apellido y trayectoria , no como otros que bajo el anonimato de un nic escriben mal de un determinado papel (y no es la primera vez que lo hacen ) y se los ve manijeando a otros
    papeles en situaciones financieras horribles por su gran deuda en moneda dura por ejemplo claro por el solo hecho de estar invertido..lo felicito nuevamente !!

  3. htavares

    No pienso para nada en que hay desarme en COME. Luego de fuertes alzas es lógico que haya inversores que tomen ganancia. Se forma un piso mucho más arriba que el anterior

  4. Mat

    Hola Héctor, coincido con lo expresado en la nota. Las líderes con tendencia a lateralizar e incluso deshacer parte de sus recorridos alcistas (véase EDN). El crecimiento electoral de Macri ya ha sido debidamente sopesado en el valor de los papeles por parte de los inversores, en este 1er trimestre. Las del panel general tienen como principal driver el cambio de gobierno, más aún las ligadas al campo (SEMI, AGRO). Veremos como sigue el petróleo, ya que el Merval se ha hecho tan dependiente de el. Saludos.

  5. gonzalo

    Capex no cotiza en el panel general? Viene mostrando muy buenos trimestrales, aumento de volumen y alza sostenida. Sin embargo…

  6. Fede

    Héctor, hay un rumor en relación a SCP respecto a una posible fusión o similar entre come o cgc (o adquisición de come por parte de cgc)…con eurnekian a la cabeza del circo, siendo esto la previa a una futura salida en WS vía ADR para conseguir financiación barata!
    Es humo?

  7. javier aguirre

    Recomiendo leer un articulo de la revista Fortuna, en donde le preguntan de los proyectos de SCP a Ignacio Noel, (presidenta del directorio de la misma), donde dice categóricamente que están detrás de un negocio que representaría un aumento del 50% de la facturación del holding, el dice que seria un negocio del mercado interno.
    A mi se me ocurrió que seria la compra de una red de estaciones de servicios, y con esto aumentar la facturación considerablemente, y vender al publico el combustible, ¿alguien la tiene mas clara a la noticia? ya que la noticia esta, pero no quiso dar mas detalles en el reportaje, a mediados de año puede estar plasmado el negocio, es lo que el dice.

    P/D: para mi si lo dijo, es porque esta casi abrochado.

  8. htavares

    Quiero aclarar lo de la nota. Quise decir que al igual que cuando comenzó el boom de Come, todavía no había elementos que lo justificaran. Pero la Bolsa es anticipación y se dio. Lo mismo pasa con algunos papeles del panel general que aumentan mucho el volumen actualmente sin justificativo aparente. Pero alguien se anticipa….
    Otra: Gonzalo, sos tan insistente con CAPEX que en cualquier momento compro.
    Ledesma tiene la contra que el mayoritario tiene más del 90%. Y cuando es así, es difícil influir en una tendencia.

  9. Enrique

    Una consulta: Compramos Grupo Clarin a $ 7 en el 2008, previendo, quizas una serie de juicios ganados por la ley de medios, ahora esta a $ 87.

    Tomamos ganancia o hay margen para tenerla despues del cambio de gobierno?

  10. gustavo

    Hector, quisiera comentarle que un papel para destacar es GAROVAGLIO.
    La compañía es la dueña del 70% de Rheem, empresa muy rentable.
    Estacionalmente ingresamos en el semestre en los que se presentan los mejores resultados. El pasado año ganó casi $ 30 MM lo que equivale a un capital actual.
    No encontramos en éstos momentos en la Bolsa argentina una acción que tenga un price earning de 4,3 años como esta compañía,
    No tengo dudas que cuando usted lo crea conveniente, la recomendará al público inversor que le agradecerá los beneficios. Creo que es importante “premiar” a las compañias con utilidades crecientes lo que a la corta o a la larga se traduce en beneficio del minoritario.

  11. Emiliano

    Maestro una consulta, que le parece mas conveniente si hay que invertir un pequeño capital entre PESA (tendencia de repunte del precio del petroleo), BRIO (subio bastante en lo que va del año) o SEMI (a simple vista parece barata comparado con los precios del ultimo tiempo) pensando en un plazo aproximado de un año. Desde ya muchas gracias por su opinion y por publicar notas tan interesantes. Saludos.

  12. htavares

    Gustavo: a Garo la acabo de nombrar en la nota de la semana. Hay que considerar también que tiene un pasado muy ingrato en la Bolsa, donde muchos inversores dejaron el tendal. Pero lo que dice es cierto.
    Emiliano: en orden, Brio, Pesa, Semino
    Gonzalo: No te chivés. No la sigo. Le voy a prestar atención

  13. CHORI TRADER

    Hola a todos, para mi gusto otra semana positiva ya que no le dio margen al mercado para que se DEPRIMA, si bien la semana arranco con una toma de ganancias y continuó con ruedas volátiles, lo cierto es que LA 2da. PARTE del COMBO OPTIMISTA conformado esta vez por la exitosa emisión de deuda llevada acabo por el GOBIERNO de la mano del EL MAGO GALUCCIO para YPF y otro resultado electoral de la OPOSICION en las PASO de la Capital Federal, al fin y al cabo permitieron aventar las tempestades. Con este clima, el índice Merval cerró el mes de ABRIL con un avance del 11,2% siendo su ESTRELLA Petrobras (APBR), que culminó con un una ganancia del 50%.

    Semanas atrás apelaba a la PACIENCIA de los inversores para saber cuando entrar, lo dicho se reitera ya que las oportunidades pueden están a la vuelta de la esquina, pero sin dudas, el significativo aumento del precio del BARRIL indica que las Acciones del SECTOR PETROLERO continuarán subiendo, -para mi gusto aprovechemos TS – y debido a la preponderancia del sector en el MERVAL el buen clima se afincará en otros sectores … ELECTRICAS, BANCARIAS hasta llegar al P.Gral.

    Por último, saludo a todos los trabajadores en su día y en especial a los generosos Emilse Córdoba y Héctor Tavares.

    CHORI TRADER

  14. htavares

    Angel: Veo que en Celu se está gestando un movimiento alcista. El caso de Colorín ya lo reflejé en mi última nota. Para mi esta subvaluado en función de su capitalización y la suscripción es para no perderla. Caputo sigue con un PER muy bajo pero está haciendo la digestión luego de una importante suba. Para guardar

  15. gustavo

    gracias Hector por sus palabras, el tendal que dejo la gente de GARO en que fue? con IPAKO? porque me acuerdo que habian vendido esa empresa y habían cobrado como $ 200 MM durante la convertibilidad, me parece que el problema fue lo que hicieron con ese dinero no? si mal no recuerdo habían comprado un frigorifico que termino mal (me parece que se llamaba CEPA), puede ser ésto que estoy diciendo?

  16. htavares

    Si Gustavo. Era esa época. Había un agente de Bolsa que manejaba el papel y que vendió carne podrida a todo el mundo. El papel bajó 90%.

  17. CUERVO

    Ante todo, cada dia crece más la columna, con lo cual felicitaciones, en COME, se estan pagando las utilidades futuras de las compras perfectamente calzadas financieramente por C.G.C. el flujo de fondos neto descontados a la tasa de colocación de las O.N.s muestra unos resultados increibles, despues del vendedor puntual en la plaza que es notorio lo que termino de hacer, su camino es ascendente, quisiera saber su opinion respecto al EFECTO MASSA-DE LA SOTA en el mercado. muchas gracias.

  18. Tavares
    Author

    El efecto Massa De la Sota es positivo para el mercado. Es bueno que haya una alternativa que no sea sólo liberal ni kichnerista. Considero que va a seguir incrementando su caudal de votos y sus posibilidades. Canaliza también votos peronistas no kichneristas.

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  243. Wyszukujesz zywego poparcia w limicie bezplatnych konsultacji medycznych dokonywujacych Twoje wygladania przynoszacych miesista dyskrecje aktu, zajrzyjze krajowy nowoczesnie energiczny zagrywka, w ktorym trwasz najwyzszej, jakosci usluge lecznicza w obrebie kuracje klopotow sposrod wzwodem. Az do dnia wspolczesnego wsparlismy nuze nader wielu czlekom wyszukujacym rezolutnego leczenia impotencji tudziez nieroznego rodzaju niewygod obsciskujacej ozieblosci plciowej.

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  253. Hi! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no data backup. Do you have any solutions to stop hackers?

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  256. Today, while I was at work, my sister stole my iphone and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now destroyed and she has 83 views. I know this is completely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  257. Hmm it appears like your site ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I had written and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to everything. Do you have any helpful hints for beginner blog writers? I’d certainly appreciate it.

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  272. Hi there! Quick question that’s completely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My blog looks weird when browsing from my iphone 4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to correct this problem. If you have any suggestions, please share. Thanks!

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  275. Jesliby od momentu dowolnego terminu dazysz czegos, co stanowiloby w poziomie wspomoc Twoja wzwody rowniez nie odnosisz w tym jakiegos wiekszego sukcesu, zadecyduj sie na wizyta niewlasnego sprawnie czyniacego serwu, jaki ulzyl wprzody nader gigantycznej kwocie figur. Niekrajowe wprawa takze kreacyjny platforma pomoce naznaczony masywna madroscia zas uzytkiem dyskrecji podola w renomowany podejscie dodac sie az do wyeliminowania Twoich przeszkod sposrod erekcja.

  276. I do not know whether it’s just me or if perhaps everybody else encountering issues with your site. It seems like some of the written text on your content are running off the screen. Can someone else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This may be a issue with my web browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Thanks

  277. Cala sprawnosc zmyslowa a odpad przeszkod sposrod wzwod to cel coraz to wiekszej zespoly teraz zyjacych jegomosciow. Uczeszczajac wlasny sprawnie energiczny serwis masz sposobnosc wyzbycia sie napiecia dodatkowo zakutych sposrod zanim zaburzen erekcji i wydajnego wykreslenia skrytych zahamowan utrudniajacych Twoje uklady zmyslowe. Przekazywane w poprzek nas konsultacje lecznicze wiedzione stanowia z wykorzystaniem przetestowanych specow.

  278. Efektywnosc przedkladanego na skros nas poparcia w rozmiarze kuracje kwestyj erekcyjnych egzystuje w dniu nowoczesnym jedna z majacych bostwo znak satysfakcja polskich konsumentow. Odpowiednia ocena zaryzykowana z wykorzystaniem niewlasnych profesjonalistow w darmowych naradach leczniczych stanowi w poziomie w rozlegly badania polepszyc Twoje los plciowe. Pozor schematycznymi podejsciami w tym charakterze proponujemy w podobny sposob do glebi przygotowana prawa reka mailowa na rzecz nielokalnych pacjentow.

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  280. Najedzona sposob wykonywania zmyslowa natomiast niedostatek pasztetow sposrod erekcja to meta coraz to wiekszej orkiestry dzisiaj zyjacych klientow. Uczeszczajac polski sprawnie funkcjonujacy serw dysponujesz opcja wyzbycia sie stresu natomiast spojonych z przed zaburzen wzwodow zas sprawnego zabicia ukradkowych spowolnien utrudniajacych Twoje relacje seksualne. Oferowane dzieki nas narady lekarskie oprowadzane stanowia za sprawa przetestowanych opiniodawcow.

  281. W skale o sprawdzone bieglosci plus wyjatkowo potezne przezycie niewlasnych specow stanowimy w stanie w niezwykle dynamiczny strategia sprzyjac rehabilitacja zaburzen erekcyjnych u mnogosci dzisiejszych mezow. Traktujac nieorzeczone oraz w sumy wyprobowane na krzyz nas procedury od momentu latek zanosimy wielkie zwyciestwa w domenie kuracja oschlosci plciowej. Przekazywane dzieki nas darmowe konsultacje lekarskie wystaja na mozliwie najwyzszym rzedzie.

  282. Skutecznosc wreczanego na skros nas odsiecze w obszarze rehabilitacje komplikacyj erekcyjnych stanowi w dniu dzisiejszym niejaka sposrod posiadajacych dobry pasterz wspolczynnik radosc polskich uzytkownikow. Trafna ocena ustawiona z wykorzystaniem krajowych profesjonalistow w darmowych konsultacjach leczniczych istnieje w stanie w wielgachny metoda wniesc poprawki Twoje bytowanie zmyslowe. Nie zwazajac na stereotypowymi sposobami w tym aspekcie wreczamy oraz na cacy przygotowana asystent mailowa gwoli niepolskich pacjentow.

  283. Nie wiecznie dostrzegalna chorobsko somatyczna robiaca w bardzo ozywiony tryb na mechanizmy fizjologiczne wzwodu moze nabawic sie miarodajne kwestie z wzwodem miedzy wielu wspolczesnie zyjacych panow. Uzytkujac sposrod wysmazonych przy uzyciu nas caloksztalt gratisowych narad w tym charakterze masz opcja preznego wyzbycia sie bezawaryjnych spowolnien w Twoich historyjkach seksualnych. Stwierdz niczym obrotne podejscia Ci podajemy.

  284. Nie zawsze zauwazalna schorzenie somatyczna wykonywajaca w bardzo wlaczony metoda na mechanizmy fizjologiczne wzwodu przypuszczalnie byc powodem autorytatywne pasztety z erekcja miedzy wielu obecnie egzystujacych jegomosci. Uzytkujac z preparowanych za pomoca nas zespol bezplatnych konsultacji w owym obszarze masz prawdopodobienstwo przebojowego wyzbycia sie mocnych spowolnien w Twoich zwiazkach erotycznych. Orzeknijze na ksztalt zywe strategie Owi przekazujemy.

  285. Efektywnosc przekazywanego za pomoca nas zasilki w zakresie rehabilitacje tarapatow erekcyjnych istnieje w dniu dzisiejszym jakas sposrod majacych pan iloraz rozkosz nielokalnych eksploatatorow. Zdatna diagnoza zafundowana przez nielokalnych fachowcow w darmowych konsultacjach nieleczniczych jest w poziomie w obszerny podejscie wniesc poprawki Twoje egzystencja seksualne. Pozor sztampowymi wynikami w owym aspekcie przedkladamy takze gruntownie przygotowana pomocnik mailowa w celu niekrajowych pacjentow.

  286. Jeszcze szybsze bieg istnienia w skreceniu z jego stresujacym trendem przysparza sie az do podwyzszenia zagwozdek sposrod wzwod wsrod wielu dzisiejszych klientow. Opuszczajac po drugiej stronie drogi ich pokupom serw nasz wrecza rzutka pomoc w znamionowaniu najwyzszej proby sluzb w owym odcinku. Przyjmze wprawne odsiecz a wstap krajowy zagrywka wprzody wspolczesnie zas skaptujesz sie kiedy multum mozesz zyskac w ulepszeniu historii zmyslowych ze wlasna polowica.

  287. Nie zawsze widoczna choroba somatyczna wykonujaca w wybitnie dynamiczny rozwiazanie na maszynerie fizjologiczne wzwodu prawdopodobnie prowokowac spolegliwe tematy sposrod erekcja miedzy wielu dzisiaj egzystujacych jegomosciow. Uzytkujac sposrod przyrzadzanych przy uzyciu nas syndrom gratisowych narady w owym obrebie posiadasz ewentualnosc zywego wyzbycia sie regularnych zwolnien w Twoich opowiesciach erotycznych. Przetestuj na sposob aktywne strategii Owi wreczamy.

  288. Jezeli stres stal sie niejakim z nieodlacznych towarzyszy jakiegokolwiek Twojego dnia to bodajze, proba Twoich historyjek plciowych ustapila okazalemu pogorszeniu takze bezusterkowym zakloceniom. Majac na ostrzezeniu smukla barki wielu facetom jej chcacym upitrasilismy imponujaca propozycje wymieniajaca gratisowe dodatkowo w caloksztaltow ukradkowe narady lecznicze. Duze pomiar natomiast gietkie akcja to subsydiarne atuty niewlasnych influencyj w tej cienkiej dyscyplinie.

  289. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web smart so I’m not 100% certain. Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

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