CAUTELA EN EL MERCADO

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Acostumbrados a un ritmo devaluatorio constante como en la gestión anterior, los operadores del mercado se vieron relativamente sorprendidos con la nueva gestión del mercado de cambios. Durante enero y lo que va de febrero, el tipo de cambio en el mercado mayorista tuvo un incremento significativo (7% y 5% respectivamente), pero el movimiento de diciembre en lo que estuvo el nuevo gobierno había sido de -5,7%. Estos movimientos del tipo de cambio pusieron en alerta a los operadores, que esperan una volatilidad intencional en el mercado como una política de las autoridades del Banco Central para reducir la dolarización de portafolios. El clásico instrumento del BCRA para combatir el dólar es aumentar las tasas de interés de referencia, pero para evitar continuar incrementándolas se estima que el Central recurrirá a esta otra medida menos ortodoxa.

La suba del dólar impulsó con fuerza, naturalmente, los instrumentos dolarizados, tanto aquellos que pagan efectivamente con la divisa norteamericana como los que liquidan los cupones en pesos al tipo de cambio oficial (“dólar-linked”). Sin embargo, los mayores deseos de cobertura ante la devaluación disminuyeron el rendimiento de estos títulos. En otras palabras, los bonos “dólar-linked” subieron más que lo que lo hizo el dólar. Tal es el caso de los bonos mendocinos y el neuquino al 2018. También los títulos más largos como los de Chubut y la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Entre ellos se pueden llegar a conseguir al 11,5% de rendimiento anual, cuando un par de semanas atrás rendían 13% o más para el caso de las provincias mencionadas.

Para las próximas semanas es factible que el dólar pierda vigor, incluso caer, y con ello la demanda de los instrumentos de cobertura del dólar. Si bien continúan teniendo un rendimiento interesante, la alternativa de los títulos que pagan en dólar billete resulta más atractiva. El bono más largo de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, BPLD, ofrece un rendimiento de 9,2% anual en dólar billete, un 1,5% más que un título soberano con duración similar. Estos bonos se rigen por otros patrones que los “dólar-linked”, ya que pueden ser adquiridos por tenedores internacionales y por lo tanto se guían por el riesgo país (el costo del financiamiento externo). Recordemos que el cepo cambiario aún no fue removido del todo y los instrumentos que pagan en pesos al cambio oficial no pueden ser fácilmente adquiridos por inversores externos. El arreglo con los fondos buitre, que luce bastante probable dada la buena aceptación inicial, terminaría de reducir las tasas de endeudamiento soberanas.

Los inversores más grandes -a quienes le cueste adquirir bonos de baja liquidez- siguen teniendo la alternativa del PARA o del DICA para aprovechar los quizás últimos meses de rendimientos elevados de Argentina en comparación con sus pares regionales. Aquellos más conservadores pueden optar por las inversiones de corto plazo en pesos (PR13, PR15) para adquirir una buena rentabilidad segura con una inflación que se espera irá moderándose a lo largo del 2016.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 14.2.2016

2.402 comentarios

  1. Tomás

    Falso. Los bonos provinciales incrementaron su rendimiento porque los inversores empiezan a estar cautelosos respecto a la suba del dólar y esperan intervención del BCRA.
    El error se debe a que el autor toma la cotización divisa cuando los bonos de Mendoza y Chubut entre otros usan el dólar comprador banco nación.

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