BUSCANDO LOS DÓLAR LINKED

 

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Los anuncios del jueves de Axel Kicillof apuntan a demostrar que, pese al conflicto con los holdouts, el Gobierno puede acceder al mercado financiero en el último año de su mandato. Anunció la recompra anticipada del Boden 2015 –que vence enteramente en septiembre del año que viene- pero a la vez emite un nuevo tramo del Boden 2024, el que originalmente se había emitido para pagar a Repsol la deuda por YPF. Si tiene éxito, lo cual está en veremos, se quitaría de encima la presión de negociar en enero con los llamados “fondos buitre”.

Al inversor minorista que tiene Boden 2015 en cartera, y que por tanto no temía por la capacidad del Gobierno de pagarle en septiembre próximo, la oferta de recompra anticipada del bono no tiene por qué seducirlo. Es decir, no tiene por qué renunciar al rendimiento de 11% anual que obtendrá si lo mantiene nueve meses más.

Los que se presentan tentadores, mientras tanto, son los títulos en dólares pero cuyos servicios se pagan en pesos al cambio oficial. Estos instrumentos financieros cobraron más protagonismo con la reciente emisión de dos series de bonos nacionales, que se agregaron a los de las provincias y la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, que fueron los primeros en acudir a ellos para financiarse. Si bien hoy ofrecen rendimientos nominalmente bajos, los inversores apuestan a que, partiendo de la base que la próxima administración heredará un fuerte atraso cambiario y se verá forzado a romper con el cepo y unificar el mercado de cambios, los bonos “dólar-linked” abren la posibilidad de adquirir dólares en el 2016 pagándolos hoy a $ 8,50. Si bien la desaparición del cepo no es algo 100% certero, tiene muy elevadas probabilidades de ocurrencia, y es posible que en algún momento durante el 2015 los bonos comiencen a ser demandados con más fuerza.

En definitiva, estos títulos pueden ser una buena alternativa de inversión para diversificar, en particular para aquellos ahorristas metódicos con objetivos de inversión específicos. En las últimas semanas, tras convencerse el mercado que el gobierno tiene espalda suficiente para no devaluar (a costa de frenar importaciones y paralizar la actividad económica), los “dólar-link” cayeron de precio y mejoraron su rendimiento. Por caso, los bonos más largos de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires al 2019 y 2020 mantienen rendimientos del orden del 7% en dólares al oficial. La importancia del rendimiento se debe por un lado a percibir una mejor renta esperada durante el 2015 y por otro lado se trata de una buena tasa incluso luego de darse el evento de unificación cambiaria.

Si bien para el inversor los pesos en sí no lucen tan atractivos como los dólares, en situaciones normales el mercado no hace prácticamente diferencia entre cobrar en pesos o hacerlo en dólares siempre que pueda darse vuelta y acceder al mercado de cambios libremente. Los dólar-linked son una apuesta interesante y serán la mejor alternativa de inversión en bonos de aquí a un año y medio si el nuevo gobierno decide normalizar el mercado cambiario. Los riesgos de la inversión vienen dados por una demora en dicha normalización o bien por un desdoblamiento cambiario, donde el dólar se transe libremente pero no sea el tipo de cambio utilizado para pagar servicios financieros.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 7.12.2014

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