BUEN AROMA PARA LAS GASIFERAS -LA NOTA DE LA SEMANA-

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“Todo pasa”… y también pasara el “show” montado en comodoro Py, del que pueden  deducirse algunas conclusiones no favorables para  La Argentina. Lo que era una simple indagatoria judicial a un ex funcionario (aunque fuera un ex presidente) se transformó en un insólito acto  político alejado del objetivo principal. No se respondió a la indagatoria, se instigó una reacción contra un gobierno  legítimamente instaurado, se dejó la seguridad de los ciudadanos en manos de un sector político radicalizado, se maltrató al Poder Judicial. Subyace la idea que se trato de intimidar fiscales y jueces por causas mas comprometedoras. Lamentable.

Con relación al mercado bursátil, la cancelación de deudas  en default nos coloca en una posición favorable. Los bancos que dejaron para la decisión de las asambleas (fin de abril) la distribución de sus utilidades, podrán concretarlas sin oposición oficial. Esto evita que el  Banco Central deba emitir pesos para adquirir los dólares de la soja. También se beneficiarán con su participación en futuras emisiones de deudas soberanas o corporativas.

Le toca el turno a las gasíferas que recibirán estimulo oficial pues constituye la verdadera riqueza energética de Argentina y que abastece a las usinas termoeléctricas (CEPU y CECO) para la producción de electricidad.

En boca de pozo se aprobó abonar un promedio de U$S 5. por millón de B.T.U (antes us$ 2.50) y las distribuidoras incrementaron sus tarifas a partir del 1.4.16 con la condición de ejecutar un Plan de inversiones obligatorias y la no distribución de dividendos hasta acreditar el cumplimiento de dicho  plan.  Por otra parte, la calificadora MOODYS Latin America subió la nota a las distribuidoras de gas en Argentina y también la calificación de sus acciones.

En la bolsa cotizan CAMUZZI, GAS BAN, GAS CUYANA y METROGAS. Para quienes acepten riesgo CAMUZZI, quedo retrasada. Se le exigen inversiones por $302 millones, habiendo ganado en su ultimo ejercicio 69 millones con capital de 334 millones.

Esta situación favorece la compra de PESA por parte de PETROLERA PAMPA, la que será estratégica para los negocios energéticos de PAMPA ENERGIA. Las negociaciones se prolongaron por 30 días sobre la base de u$S 1200 millones por el 67.50% de las acciones de PESA.

A un dólar de $15.- el valor total de la empresa representaría $13.27 por acción.-

HÉCTOR TAVARES

5.040 comentarios

  1. Mario

    Estimado Hector, que opina de carboclor? Obviamente sus números no son buenos, pero el precio en el que está me parece regalado.
    Muchas gracias.

  2. Mi maestro es Celso Furtado

    13 de abril de 2016

    13A: LANATA CLAMANDO POR REPRESIÓN MACRISTA

    Polito el Politologo blogspot

    Según el relato amarillo, hoy unos 8 a 12 mil “fanátizados ultrak”, tomaron la zona de los tribunales de Retiro, insultaron a un juez de intachable servilleta como Bonadío, golpearon a la periodista independiente Mercedes Ninci, y manosearon a su productora (obviamente no a Ninci, pues ¿Quién podría nalguear a semejante batracio?).

    Se comprende que sea tan díficil de digerir para los goriláceos. La primera citación a su odiada Cristina no fue lo que esperaban.
    Para nada.
    En lugar de una política jubilada, doblegada y resignada a la revancha corporativa, se encontraron con la misma Crispasionaria de siempre, encendida, combativa, y sin miedo alguno a la comparsa parajudicial que busca encarcelarla como sea.
    Aún forzando hechos y violando principios jurídicos del derecho penal.
    En lugar del cacareado fracaso de la movilización, vieron con sus propios ojos las imágenes del vuelo de los drones y las fotos aéreas. Bien saben que al número bartoleado por la metropolicía, hay que multiplicarlo por diez, como mínimo.
    La militancia sigue firme con su líder pese a que “la caja” ya no es K sino M (como la ruta del dinero en Panamá).
    Eso consterna a los goris, que miran sin comprender.
    En lugar de los patéticos siete minutos de disléxica oratoria del presidente off shore, hubo zaping masivo hacia una virtual cadena nacional para escuchar el discursazo de la mejor oradora que dio el peronismo después del General.
    En lugar de un mafioso show del nuevo ídolo republicano, Glock Bonadío prepoteando al sujeto de su odio, su señoría demostró cobardía.
    No se animó a estar cara a cara con CFK en su despacho. Se paró a sus espaldas.
    Y apenas escuchó la firme voz de Cristina, obsequiarle el suave y descriptivo calificativo de incompetente, se escapó como una rata.

    Nadie moviliza en este país como Cristina Eva de Kirchner.
    En estos tiempos iniciales de hervor social por el retorno del ajuste neoliberal, los peronistas colaborativos deberían tomar nota.
    Aún los que temen “carpetazos” por auditorías que no dieron bien, como Picheto (por su hijo, ex director del Fondo de Sustentabilidad del Anses) y Little Sandwich Bossio.

    Por su parte el Yeneral Lanatta bramó desde la impunidad de un micrófono, su violencia contenida por el acto crisperoncho de Comodoro Py.
    Se le erizaron todos los pelos.
    -”Hoy vimos a Macri en el momento más bajo de su poder. ¿Se fue en helicóptero y no me enteré?”
    comenzó a vomitar indignación porque la policía de Macri: “no controló la zona, que quedó liberada para La Cámpora…hasta había militantes en la terraza”.

    Por supuesto que Georgie no lo dijo en palabras, como hubiera hecho un Espert o algún homínido por el estilo, pero en su perorata subyacía el oscuro y escondido deseo de que se aplique con dureza el protocolo Patricia Bullrich para disolver multitudes: gases, balas de goma… incluso de plomo.
    El gorila maiamense (también off shore) al igual que sus congéneres y conespecíficos, se puso virulento porque hoy comprobó por enésima vez, que Cristina y el peronismo kirchnerista mantienen vigente aquella vieja cita literaria atribuida a Ruiz de Alarcón:

    Los muertos que vos matáis gozan de buena salud.

  3. Es cierto Batandista. Es una espada de Damocles sobre el mercado y nadie de la ANSES aclara nada al respecto. El silencio otorga??
    Por otro lado las tasas estratosféricas que llegan al 100% en los saldos impagos de las tarjetas siguen siendo veneno para la bolsa.
    Mucha gente ilusionada por el acuerdo con los holdouts pero con este tipo de cambio no va a venir un dólar para inversión productiva. Solamente vendrán para bicicleta financiera con cobertura de dólar futuro.
    Mientras tanto la emisión de LEBAC con este nivel de tasas ya generó un déficit cuasi fiscal y futura emisión monetaria por $ 160.000 millones. Más del doble de las pérdidas por la venta de dólar futuro.
    La justicia se animará a citar por esta causa a Macri, Prat Gay y Sturzenegger?
    LO QUE ESTÁ MAL DE UN LADO TAMBIÉN ESTÁ MAL DEL OTRO.

  4. Barandista

    Co el verso del plan Belgrano yo quede empomado con J Minetti. Arranco y se achancho en 17.Muchos ya estamos decepcionados y descreidos. Pasamos de un autoritarismo de izquierda a uno de derecha.

  5. Cheque

    jjsja 4 meses van ya bajaron l martillo ayyy ojala se acuerden a fin de año d las boludeces que escriben asi no las vuelven a decir. Entre los K y los que se hacen los analistas pero simplemente repiten lo q escuchan me superan……

  6. Lemagiscien

    Plenamente de acuerdo Hector sobre lo que se viene en gas. Ahora PESA tiene en $13.27 una primera referencia. La proyección a futuro puede ser significativa.
    Lo inmediato es que destino tendra Dilma, segun el camino del proceso de impeachment. Si le dan la salida puede retrasarse un poco la negociacion.
    Saludos

  7. Lemagiscien, lo de Dilma creo que es irreversible. Por mucho menos Collor de Melo tuvo que renunciar. Los procesos históricos, raramente se cortan y aquí en Sudamérica estamos pasando de populismos corruptos a un cambio que exige la sociedad.
    Igualmente todo esto debería venirle bien a PESA ya que el precio de venta va a estar siendo visto con lupa por las nuevas autoridades. Nadie querrá estar bajo sospecha y si agregamos el hecho de la suba del precio del petróleo, más la alta probabilidad de que el domingo los países petroleros se pongan de acuerdo en Doha para reducir la producción y recuperar aún más los precios del petróleo, podríamos prever que el precio de venta de PESA debería ser mayor al que se viene conversando.
    Es muy llamativo el pedido de ampliación del plazo para negociar la venta de PESA por parte de Petrobras Brasil. Hay mucho menos apuro, lo cual está indicando un mayor poder de negociación.

  8. Lemagiscien

    Desde ya Historico. De todas formas si Dilma sucumbe sera a traves de un largo proceso. Para quienes estamos con fuerte posicion en el papel, el tiempo de definiciones y la “liberacion y retransformacion” de esta ex Perez C., ahora apachorrada, es deseable que suceda en lo inmediato. En manos de los Mindlin boys y con un Aranguren y gobierno decidido a potenciar ciertos vectores de la producción energetica, “va a estar linda PESA”.
    Todos éstos supuestos, claro está, considerando el mejor escenario: respeto por el minoritario.
    Saludos

  9. German

    Gente, estoy posicionado en GGAL, PAMP, ALU, CAP, y SEMI, con la ultima, terrible clavo, como soy un rockie les consulto, me mantengo posicionado, huyo y licito lebacs y un plazo fijo con los intereses, me tiro a un pozo, que aconsejan.
    Saludos y festejo que este sitio haya vuelto a la seriedad.

  10. Barandista

    Yo creo q se va a dilatar. Bastante la venta de la Ex P Companc, popor q el q asumiria la presi!encia por 180 dias, “NO TIENE MUCHÀ ACEPTÀcion popular.

  11. Javier Aguirre

    Lo de Pesa para mi tiene varias contras ,la primera es quien pone el gancho por la venta y la otra es que se negocio con el petroleo a un precio y ahora aumento ,¿como queda eso? Y ojo si aumenta un poco mas el petroleo y destituyen a Vilma, yo por las dudas vendi Pesa y Petr y espero para entrarle de nuevo ,porque si es negativa la noticia la cotizacion se va a resentir. Nos vemos , Javier

    • Daniel

      Si tucan, este papel es muy iliquido, te lo digo x experiencia propia.. entre hace unos años y me costo salir.. tuve q irme neutro. Ojo.

      sds

  12. Felipito_tacatun

    Histórico, la comparación entre los futuros de Vanoli y las tasas altas de Sturzenegger no tiene nada que ver. El BC está habilitado a operar en el mercado de futuros “a precio de mercado” (cosa que evidentemente no hizo, ya que el mercado cotizaba la relación dolar-peso un 50% arriba de lo que vendió el BCRA, mientras que las operaciones de deuda, aunque generen déficit cuasi fiscal, son estrictamente legales. De hecho, son tasas reales apenas positivas.

  13. pablo

    Hola a todos, y gracias por los aportes tan positivos
    Una pregunta obvia…
    Si quieren comprar PESA…. ¿No es porque está barata?…
    Y si no la venden desde Brasi, por x causa política ¿Esto también no es bueno?
    Porque significa que no la quieren regalar, lo cual blanquearía que está barata, y también debeía ajustarse
    Bueno, perdón por el análisis simplista, pero pareciera que PESA está muy rezagada, tanto en pesos como en dólares…
    Saludos
    PAblo

  14. Tavares
    Author

    Tucan: El poco mercado cuando los balances son positivos es una ventaja. El vendedor fija los precios. El riesgo Camuzzi, como las restantes distribuidoras, es que por ahora, el éxito es potencial.

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  100. Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.

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  102. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

  103. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

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  105. Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

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  107. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

  108. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

  109. The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

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  115. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

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  117. I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

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  124. If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.

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  130. I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

  131. The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

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  137. This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.

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  139. Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

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