BINGO !!! -la nota de la semana-

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Por si faltara algo para complicar el análisis prospectivo sobre la economía nacional, al problema de Grecia, a la pinchadura de burbujas en China, al fortalecimiento del dólar en detrimento de las economías emergentes productoras de ” commodities”,  en nuestro pais se agregan los “fuegos artificiales” preelectorales , la idea de confrontar con la justicia y la ultima novedad: el control sobre medios y  empresas para evitar el “terrorismo” financiero y económico.  BINGO !!!!!!!  Pero como “todo llega” y “todo pasa” continuaremos con nuestra opinion para “el dia después”.  Ya anticipamos que la recuperación de la competitividad empresaria es necesaria y  que la  actualizacion del valor del dólar es inexorable por lo que las exportadoras e inversoras en el exterior picarán en punta. El campo tendrá un rol fundamental por su capacidad de generar inmediatamente ingreso genuino de divisas. En ese sentido cabe observar la importante demanda en AGROMETAL a pesar de su 1er trimestre negativo, que se compensará con el  3ro tradicionalmente más fuerte. siendo posiblemente sin cambios el segundo. Agrometal se encuentra en quizás su precio histórico más bajo. Su demanda actual también podría deberse a que algún grupo inversor busca colocar un director en la Empresa, habida cuenta que el grupo mayoritario tiene solo algo más del 50%. También está firme  SEMINO que finalizó su Ejercicio en Mayo y que en su 3er trimestre recuperó rentabilidad (8.7 millones de utilidad) beneficiado por los bajos costos de su principal insumo: el trigo. En otra dimensión, MOLINOS RIO ofrece una buena protección ante un exceso en su depreciación.  Hasta fin de año el “veranito en invierno” del mercado  interno podrá sostenerse. De alli que se esperan buenos Ejercicios  en GAROVAGLIO, GRIMOLDI, LONGVIE y DOMEC beneficiados por el AHORA 12 y el “tarjeteo”. El incremento en el despacho de cemento y las mayores escrituraciones anticipan buenas perspectivas en HOLCIM ( ex Minetti) que ya en su 1er. timestre demostró su recuperacion con una utilidad de 52,3 millones contra una pérdida de 12,5 millones en 2014. También la rendidora FERRUM. Las mejoras en sus tarifas de peaje consolidan la recuperacion de las autopistas AUSOL y OESTE, que cuentan con permanente liquidez en momentos de elevadas tasas.
Héctor Tavares

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5.114 comentarios

  1. vicente guglielmelli

    estimado Tavares, otra vuelvo a consultarlo , tengo ganas de comprar algo de pesa y algunos lotes . se rumorea que la venden .que opinión tiene . se que esta todo muy convulsionado x grecia y ahora se agrego china , pero creo que estos son los momentos oportunos para entrar. muchas gracia. espero su respuesta siempre atinada. vicente

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  2. Gonzalo

    Buenas noches Héctor. Respecto de Semino usted comento hace dias que había finalizado la venta por parte de un gran tenedor. Sin embargo siguen cargando ordenes importantes cada vez que el precio ronda los $1.80 como si no quisieran que la especie se aleje de ese valor. El operador 114 es al parecer quien manipula la especie y muchos sospechan que podría estar haciéndolo en nombre de la controlante. Tiene algún dato o comentario al respecto? Un abrazo.

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  3. tuco

    Estimado Tavares. Pensé que ya estaba superado el tema,pero veo otra vez que se eestan haciendo pasar por ud. Si bien los comentarios son iguales, cual de los 2 tavares es el verdadero maestro? El de las mayúsculas o minúsculas.

    Por favor no empecemos de nuevo con la misma historia.

    Por otro lado, me tomo el atrevimiento de preguntarle nuevamente por un dinero que tengo disponible y me gustaría invertir en lo inmediato, si bien ud. Ya titulo “no mirar mas el día a día” quisiera comprar alguna acción en corto plazo y usar lo ganado para mis vacaciones.

    Gracias maestro

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  4. Tavares
    Author

    Gonzalo: Semino está muy firme (vasta ver los cierres donde se barre todo en día normal de la Bolsa. Siempre va a ver compradores y vendedores pero a estos precios todo indica que está cerca de un teórico piso. Espero su final con utilidades.
    Tuco: En esta oportunidad, fue un error mío contestar sin la estampilla amarilla de autor. Por ese mandé luego la correcta. Para invertir en el corto hay que ser Horangel. En la líder, la más volátil en COME. que está firme. En el general, si mejoran los bancos,. Bco. Patagonia es una buena opción. Todo con “beneficio de inventario”

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