BALANCE DE UN AÑO AGITADO, por Eduardo Cardenal

 

 

 

 

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Liberación sin traumas del mercado de cambios, resolución del conflicto de la deuda en default y un aparente éxito en el blanqueo de capitales han sido indiscutibles logros del gobierno de Cambiemos realizados a fines del 2015 y 2016. El primer semestre del año estuvo signado por la pasividad del tipo de cambio y un salto inflacionario por el reacomodamiento de precios relativos, especialmente por la liberación de controles de precios en alimentos y bebidas, seguros médicos, matrículas escolares, etc. Las fuertes expectativas de cambio y la confianza en un punto de inflexión de Argentina en materia de populismo económico y social toleraba la situación inflacionaria. El mercado bursátil, reflejo de las expectativas -falsas o correctas-, cobró bríos en consecuencia tanto en acciones como bonos.

El segundo semestre fue sinónimo de desencanto, aunque se manifestó con más crudeza en los últimos meses. El tercer trimestre del 2016 fue más de transición: bajando las tasas de interés con una inflación que comenzaba a menguar el gobierno consiguió logros importantes (tuvo el histórico logro de endeudarse externamente en pesos a tasa fija a 10 años a un costo muy bajo) pero también comenzaron los tropezones de la mano de la falta de eficacia en reducir los subsidios de los servicios públicos. El dólar continuaba tranquilo ante la expectativa de un blanqueo exitoso pero con preocupaciones sobre una economía que mostraba algún que otro brote verde muy tímidamente.

Finalmente llegó el último trimestre del año con un pésimo octubre con repunte inflacionario y recesivo. Discusiones políticas empantanadas en el Congreso, concesiones a todos los sectores en materia de gasto público y un presupuesto con pocos signos de reducir la presión impositiva y el déficit conformaron un cóctel muy pesado de digerir. El golpe de gracia lo dio la elección de Donald Trump, que comenzó a sembrar dudas sobre la estrategia de parsimonia del Gobierno  a la hora de resolver el dilema fiscal. Afortunadamente los datos de crecimiento e inflación para noviembre fueron más benignos, y tras la elección Donald Trump se mostró más moderado, reduciendo la presión sobre los emergentes.

En lo que a bonos respecta, tras la elección de Estados Unidos los rendimientos de los títulos más largos tuvieron un fuerte golpe y “devolvieron” buena parte de lo que se ganó en el año. No se llegó a los niveles del 2015 del 12% anual de TIR, pero sí se volvieron a los rendimientos posteriores a la salida del cepo y previos al arreglo con los holdouts y el optimismo del cambio. Para sorpresa de muchos, en medio de la triste performance política tanto del oficialismo como de la oposición en materia de ganancias y otros impuestos (derrota política mediante del gobierno), las paridades de los bonos se recuperaron gracias a una mayor confianza en que el punto de inflexión de las elecciones de Estados Unidos no iba a ser un cambio de rumbo feroz.

De cara al 2017 las preocupaciones son más internas que externas y están signadas por la incertidumbre y la falta de una clara hoja de ruta. Los reclamos principales de los hombres de negocios son dos: reducción de la presión fiscal para promover inversiones y reducción del déficit fiscal para no depender del endeudamiento externo. Ambos objetivos tienen un denominador común: el creciente y gigantesco nivel de gasto público. Durante el 2016 el gobierno pasó de una fuerte reducción que se pretendía con los subsidios de los servicios públicos a un gradualismo que ahora se teme quede en la nada misma o bien un gasto creciente. Mientras tanto, los agentes económicos ven que en el Congreso se discute únicamente qué impuestos cobrar, pero nunca sale a la discusión cómo gastar menos dinero desde el estado o cómo hacer el gasto más eficiente. En una economía donde el gasto estatal es el 50% del PBI (y los recursos del 40%), la eficiencia de cómo se gasta es indispensable. En un año electoral como el 2017 y ante la falta de transformaciones sustanciales durante el 2016 –que, se supone, era el año para aprovechar a hacer cambios- las posibilidades de un cambio de ruta se ven desvanecidas.

Bajo este panorama, los inversores adoptaron una estrategia más conservadora durante el último trimestre. No sólo empujados por la incertidumbre de Donald Trump sino también por la incertidumbre propia de la solvencia fiscal local. Muy lejos se está de un evento de default, con lo cual el temor se focaliza en el riesgo precio de los bonos. Es decir, a qué tasas podrá refinanciar sus deudas el gobierno en los años venideros. Por ello es escasa la demanda de los títulos más largos en dólares a pesar de que ya superaron el tentador rendimiento del 8% anual.

La estrategia más adecuada en este momento pareciera ser la conservadora, aprovechando los altos rendimientos que ofrecen la Letras del Tesoro de corto plazo (3% anual en dólares), algo más de rendimiento en el tramo medio de la curva (5,5% para el AY24) y algo de tasa en pesos de corto plazo con las Lebacs o algo de mayor plazo con fideicomisos financieros para quien puede surfear la desventaja de la iliquidez. También resultan muy interesantes los bonos ajustables por CER para competir adecuadamente contra la inflación, más en años donde se esperan nuevos aumentos tarifarios que serían capturados por estos instrumentos. Tanto el PR13 (más corto) para capturar la inflación con bajo riesgo precio como los DICP, PARP o CUAP para mayor tasa y quizás alguna ganancia de capital si se reduce la TIR de los bonos, no son una estrategia para despreciar.

Los bonos más largos en dólares resultan una estrategia demasiado audaz para el inversor conservador. La gran pregunta de estos títulos es si los rendimientos actuales son buenos precios de entrada o bien si en el 2017 el gobierno continúa empantanado o sufre una derrota electoral frente al peronismo, sucesos estos con los que los rendimientos tenderán a aumentar. Si nos guiamos sólo por la situación mundial, los mercados parecen ya haber digerido el efecto Trump y lo más probable es que los emergentes tengan más para ganar que para perder en el terreno financiero. En ese contexto el 8% del DICA o el 8,5% del PARY son excelentes tasas en dólares para conservar por largo rato o incluso podrían llegar a niveles del 7%/7,5% como estuvieron anteriormente. Pero el desempeño de la economía local será el gran interrogante para el rendimiento de los bonos largos.

 

 

1.518 comentarios

  1. Histórico

    Como siempre muy bueno el análisis de Eduardo Cardenal.
    Totalmente de acuerdo con lo expresado.
    Este gobierno se ha caracterizado por la tibieza y la parsimonia en su política económica sin haber tenido la valentía suficiente en adoptar los cambios que el país requiere para su desarrollo económico, es decir una baja sustancial de la presión fiscal, en la flexibilización del régimen laboral y en un radical cambio de la dirección del gasto público: al desarrollo de la infraestructura de nuestro país y no al mantenimiento de las capas geológicas que se van acumulando en la administración pública con cada cambio de gobierno y en poner un límite a los planes “trabajar” (????) y no en seguir fomentando la vagancia en forma indefinida.
    Como lo vengo diciendo en este foro hace ya más de seis meses este gobierno no es CAMBIEMOS sino SIGAMOS!!
    El único cambio que hemos tenido ha sido el RELATO.

  2. Javier Aguirre

    http://www.cronista.com/finanzasmercados/Argentina-no-sera-mercado-emergente-si-deciden-gravar-la-renta-financiera-20161208-0017.html

    Siempre pasa algo, no creo que Lunes y Martes venga verde hasta que no se defina este tema. Massa tiene cerca mejor equipo economico que Macri ¿no les consulta? un delirio, sinceramente una falta de preparacion, de estudio, de conocimiento como se maneja la economia mundial y aparte ¿ LE PAGAMOS UN SUELDO NOSOTROS? Pensar que tuve duda y casi lo voto por los economistas que tenia al lado.

    Pero si votan la ley y el presidente no la veta se viene abajo toda la bolsa ya que era un driver esperado por todos, que manera de renegar con estos politicos demagogos¡¡¡¡ y sin preparacion¡¡¡¡¡¡

    Nos vemos , Javier

  3. Histórico

    Siguiendo con lo expresado: Cómo van a aparecer los brotes verdes si la estructura de gasto público, déficit fiscal, endeudamiento externo e interno destinado en un 70% a gastos corrientes, desmesurada presión impositiva y rígido sistema laboral donde cada empleado tomado debe contabilizarse como un pasivo contingente por la altísima litigiosidad laboral y fallos judiciales siempre a favor del empleado.
    Sumemos un dólar bajo y una falta de infraestructura amén de la inseguridad jurídica, física y de la incertidumbre del mantenimiento de leyes aprobadas hacen que la realidad política y económica argentina sean un campo poco fértil para atraer la productiva privada.
    Ojalá en el nuevo año que está por empezar nuestro gobierno se ponga las pilas, abra los ojos y TENGA LA VALENTÍA SUFICIENTE PARA REALIZAR EL CAMBIO PROMETIDO EN SU CAMPAÑA ELECTORAL.

  4. Javier con todo respeto, el de Macri no se si es buen equipo económico. Pero el de Massa: tuvieron el apoyo político de Duhalde en su momento que no es lo mismo que Macri y pudieron reacerse de una crisis muy fuerte, No hay genios, eso es lo que nos hacen creer,

    Sds C.

  5. ruben

    El equipo de Masa es um bochorno….lo unico rescatable el viejo Lavagna…..el resto un desastre y 1 solo tipo no puede manejar un pais….por favor…!!!
    En la foto salieron todos los que ya tuvieron su oportunidad compartida con gente que estubo 12 años y que carajo hicieron…!!!
    Por que antes de irse no dejaron el tema ganancias arreglado si eran tan genios….si esto no es de ahora viene de arrastre….de la gestion de todos los que estaban en esa fotito…!!!
    Menos mal que el massismo salio 3…!!!

    • Marcos

      Hablan de buena gestion de Lavagna y lo unico que hizo fue el megacanje del 2005, el resto gradualismo porque Remes le dejo un colchon cambiario espectacular despues de devaluarse 3 a 1

    • Lavagna rescatable? Es uno de los 3 delincuentes responsables del desastroso megacanje del 2005 (junto con el “finado” y Nielsen), quienes aceptaron la jurisdicción de los tribunales de NY, y cuyo primer capítulo terminó con el pago que hizo MM al primer grupo de buitres usureros.

  6. Javier Aguirre

    No, Carlitos lo que planteo es que Massa tiene un equipo economico mejor que Macri y me sorprende esas ideas que propone teniendo esos economistas al lado.Redrado debe ser uno de los economistas que mas sabe de inversiones bursatiles PREGUNTO. ¿NO LO CONSULTA EN LUGAR DE DECIR SEMEJANTES PAVADAS?

    Ese es mi planteo, a lo mejor no me exprese bien, disculpa.

    Nos vemos , Javier

  7. Cristaldo

    Javier. Lavagna recibe la conducción económica con un dólar recontra alto para esos precios internos. El trabajo sucio y odioso lo hizo Remes. Así cualquiera hace una buena gestión

  8. Cristaldo

    Resulta que ahora estos tipos se sacan La foto con los que armaron el quilombo. Muy difícil este país. Mientras no se cambie el concepto de gratuidad no tendremos destino. Nada es gratis es un sistema capitalista como estos señores del tren fantasma quieren hacer creer

  9. Iceman2016

    El problema más grande que tenemos, es el de votar cada dos años, eso obliga a todos estos truchos en pensar solo en política barata y no en los problemas de fondo del país. Todos juegan a ser Robin Hood y están re contra cagados en guita. Ahora al charlatán massita le preocupa el juego, y el casino del Tigre qué onda?
    Escuchar el otro día a chichilof, por favorrr. Algún día alguien con pelotas va a sacar el vallado que divide la Plaza de Mayo, y va a construir un buen paredón para aplicar la justicia que necesita este país. Por ahí después la van a pensar un poco antes de meterse en una lista.

    • O al menos obligarles a firmar un contrato donde son garantes con TODOS sus bienes personales (los previos a la gestión pública y los “otros”) y también a familiares directos por cualquier acción irresponsable o lesiva a los intereses nacionales que hayan hecho durante su paso por la administración pública.
      Como eso no va a ocurrir, voto por el paredón…

    • LAS1976

      EXACTAMENTE ESE ES UNO DE LOS MAYORES PROBLEMAS DE LA ARGENTINA. QUE SABIOS FUERON LOS CONSTITUYENTES DE 1853 AL ESTABLECER UN UNICO PERIODO DE 6 AÑOS SIN REELECCION INMEDIATA!! LA REELECCION Y LOS PERIODOS DE 4 AÑOS PODRAN SERVIR EN PAISES NORMALES COMO USA PERO EN ESTE SUBMUNDO EN EL QUE ESTAMOS SON UNA MALDICION.

  10. Rodolfo

    Somos muy inmaduros, a pesar de las crisis no maduramos. Sabrán los peronchos que los sistemas estatistas cayeron con el muro de Berlín?. China, Corea pagan muy bajos salarios, pero dan trabajo productivo a su gente.
    Acá se pagan sueldos muy altos en el estado por tareas improductivas, así no vamos a crecer. Conclusión: cada uno haga la suya y olvídese de la politiquería barata que nos domina. Perdón por lo negativo del comentario. La verdad no tiene remedio.

    • Reich

      Disculpa Rodolfo pero en el Estado no se pagan buenos sueldos. Los que ganan buenos sueldos son los políticos o los que coloca a dedo el gobierno de turno en el Estado, como asesores o dirigentes, pero no los empleados o funcionarios de carrera, el salario estatal siempre estuvo muy por por debajo de la actividad privada incluso para los profesionales que revistan en la administración pública. En China, Corea y todos los tigres asiáticos pagan salarios de hambre, para que solo coman arroz, no es esto lo que queremos para nuestro país, si la Argentina tiene buenos salarios hay que mantenerlos, como en Usa, Canadá, Australia y en gran parte de Europa, y esa riqueza deviene en consumo y a posteriori en producción.

  11. Marcos

    Argentina no será mercado emergente si deciden gravar la renta financiera:

    http://www.cronista.com/finanzasmercados/Argentina-no-sera-mercado-emergente-si-deciden-gravar-la-renta-financiera-20161208-0017.html

    Argentina emergente de julio de 2017 correría peligro porque MSCI exige que no se cobre impuestos a depósitos y a la compra-venta en el mercado de capitales para mantener liquidez

    VETO YA

    Es cierto que Massa es un mono con navajas y sus asesores economicos

  12. Rodolfo

    Sr. Reich no me gusta polemizar pero usted merece una respuesta, el estado ocupa 2 y hasta 3 personas por cada puesto “necesario”. Para mi eso es caro.

  13. Javier Aguirre

    Marcos para mi tiene excelentes asesores económicos Massa. Esto es lo peor del asunto, solamente levantar el teléfono y hablar 5 minutos, no más con Pignanelli,Redrado, Delgado, y Lavagna padre e hijo , 5 minutos no más….no hablaría tantas pelotudeces.. .me parece que esta despilfarrando el voto que tenía de la clase media que lo voto .No creo que ninguno de estos economistas lo haya asesorado Pignanelli que es el más reportajes de me parece que le da vergüenza ya que esquiva el tema y los otros no aparecieron a dar la cara .Y LA FOTO QUE SE SACARON LE PUEDE ARRUINAR LA ELECCIÓN LEGISLATIVAS DE OCTUBRE LA GENTE TIENE UNA CSLENTURA CON ESA FOTO !!!@

    • Marcos

      Excelentes asesores??? son todos cadaveres politicos que no saben en donde parar
      Todos esos lo unico que le importa es tener dolar alto y cerrar importaciones ya lo demostraron con sus gradualismos monetarios y sus iniciativas politicas

      • Marcos

        Lo que necesita Argentina es reducir impuestos acompañado con reduccion de gasto publico y endeudamiento si quiere hacer un cambio como lo hizo Ronald Reagan

        Estos massitas demostraron que solo cambian un impuesto por otro, no llegamos a nada

  14. Rodolfo

    Coincido con Marcos. Para cuando los argentinos propondremos planes de largo plazo (lo que le dicen políticas de estado) y que todos los partidos se comprometan a llevar a cabo.

  15. Reich

    Marcos totalmente de acuerdo, de reducción de impuestos ni palabras, pero disminución de gravámenes en serio, como el porcentaje de Iva, que es de los más altos en el concierto mundial. Argentina es el país de Latinoamérica de mayor presión tributaria, al nivel de los países del primer mundo. Pero de los servicios del primer mundo ni noticias, educación la tenes que solventar en forma privada por calidad lamentable de la pública y del ambiente a que envias a tus hijos; de la seguridad tenes que optar también por vigilancia privada incluso para que te resguarde de la policía (federal, metropolitana, de la provincia, todas); en salud intenta ir a un hospital o si sos jubilado atenderte por pami; y en cuanto a la justicia estamos en manos de Bonfatti o en su momento de Oyarbide.
    Donde están los cambios? ….

  16. SIRTHOMASMORE

    MASSA, otro NAC & POP. Más del mismo verso de cerrar el país. La ARG tiene que abrirse, y ser competitiva, y tener ventaja en aquellos sectores donde somos los mejores… Este país se viene fundiendo sosteniendo la industria berreta sustitutiva de importaciones, y a esa UIA prebendaria y acomodaticia con el poder de turno. Hay que hacer una verdadera revolución impositiva y bajar drásticamente los impuestos: este gobierno se parece cada vez a un “kircherismo de buenos modales”, como dice Espert. Lo del FRENTE RENOVADOR, pura demagogia imbécil, que va a destruir la bolsa: ESTE PAÍS NO TIENE MERCADO DE CAPITALES NI AHORRO, y ¿pretenden empomar la renta financiera”? Profundo asco me dan los muchachos de MASSA, la misma mugre infame peroncha que viene destruyendo el país.

  17. SIRTHOMASMORE

    ADR. En fin, hablemos de papeles. Bien PAMP, aguantando afuera estos días… Pareciera que el ADR que ya quebró los 35, se está quedando firme por encima del objetivo. TS, también aguantando bien. Vamos a ver como arrancamos el lunes

  18. AVAS

    Discupen pero lo de MASSA es para vomitar, No tenga miedo Presidente Macri vete esa ley de mierda y aumnete por decreto rl MNI a 37500 que esta dentro de los paramentos que se puede bancar. El Peronismo destruyo a este país sin un demagogo como Perón y sus diferentes esposas e hijos naturalizados adeptos o como lo quieran llamar, Argentina sería otro país, el populismo se hizo carne en esta tierra y pasarán generaciones para que esto cambie

  19. Javier Aguirre

    Pueda ser que no tengamos una semanita de bajas la semana que viene por culpa de Massa. QUE MANERA DE DILAPIDAR LO QUE CONSIGUIÓ!!!!!!ESA FOTO LE COSTARÁ MUUUY CARO UNA DE LAS PEORES FOTOS DE LA HISTORIA:UN RESUMEN DE LOS POLÍTICOS ARGENTINOS…..PERO BUENO ES LO QUE HAY ESPERO LUNES Y MARTES NO TENER QUE PUTEAR!!!!

  20. otro Marcos

    Buen Finde!, alguien sabe hasta cuando hay tiempo de vender opciones de dic? el lunes se puede? o la unica opcion es adquirir los papeles?

    gracias!

  21. Javier Aguirre

    Si joden el Lunes y Martes con el impuesto a los plazos fijos y Massa sale en todos los canales como le gusta a el, los bancos se hacen pelotas¡¡¡¡¡y las acciones preferidas de los fondos si Argentina era emergentes tambien y todos sabemos cuales son esas acciones.

    Nos vemos , Javier

  22. Pepe Argento

    LPQLRP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! los bancos haciéndose mierda en EEUU.

    El pija corta de Massa el Lunes llega a hinchar las pelotas con el impuesto a la Renta Financiera y vamos a cagar fuego.

    Acciones, acciones de empresas que fabrican vaselina hay que comprar irán al alza por aumento de ortos rotos, LRMQLRP!!!!

    Les anticipo la foto de la nota del Lunes del Maestro, un culo cagando será la foto que mejor describa la diarrea del Lunes LRQMPLP!!.

  23. ruben

    Muchachos…..no se den manija…!!! Aca se paso la saranda. Y ahora se sabe quien es quien…!!! MM tiene todo controlado…ya alerto gobernadores…y estos lo apoyan saben que sino estan al horno…!!!
    El masita se recontra quemo….!!! Y esto al presidente le viene como anillo al dedo…!!!
    MM define y es el gran ganador….!!!
    El oficialismo se la pone a la oposicion…con o sin vaselina….recuerdenlo….!!!

  24. Javier Aguirre

    Ojalá tengas razón Rubén por el bien de todos nosotros los inversores.Y que Macri gane bien las legislativas de Octubre más emergente AGARRATE LA SUBA !!!!! Para el anecdotario muchos foristas no postean ESTARÁN EN CHILE DE COMPRAS ?

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  158. Hands down, Apple’s app retailer wins as a result of a mile. It is a massive option of all types of purposes vs a alternatively sad alternative of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, specifically in the realm of game titles, however I’m not certain I might have to have to wager on the upcoming if this part is substantial in the direction of your self. The iPod is a much better final decision within just that scenario.

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  166. Apple currently contains Rhapsody as an application, which is a fantastic start, nevertheless it is at the moment hampered by way of the incapability toward store regionally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this adjustments, then it will rather negate this benefit for the Zune, still the 10 audio for each thirty day period will nonetheless be a significant plus within Zune Pass’ choose.

  167. The fresh new Zune browser is remarkably constructive, nevertheless not as optimistic as the iPod’s. It operates well, still just isn’t as prompt as Safari, and contains a clunkier interface. If yourself sometimes application upon having the website browser that is not an issue, yet if you’re coming up with to read the website alot against your PMP then the iPod’s greater display screen and superior browser might be critical.

  168. The Zune concentrates upon currently being a Transportable Media Player. Not a website browser. Not a match machine. Maybe in just the long run it’ll do even improved in individuals areas, however for now it is really a Good route toward arrange and hear toward your new music and movies, and is without having peer within that respect. The iPod’s positive aspects are its net traveling to and applications. If people strong excess powerful, probably it is your ideal selection.

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  262. I will gear this overview in direction of 2 layouts of us residents: recent Zune owners who are looking at an up grade, and persons seeking toward come to a decision involving a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players truly worth looking at out there, such as the Sony Walkman X, still I count on this offers oneself enough facts toward crank out an knowledgeable option of the Zune vs gamers other than the iPod line as nicely.)

  263. If you happen to be nevertheless on the fence: seize your favourite earphones, mind down in the direction of a Simplest Get and talk to towards plug them into a Zune then an iPod and check out which one appears far better to your self, and which interface produces you smile far more. Then you can expect to know which is instantly for your self.

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  265. Palms down, Apple’s app shop wins by means of a mile. It’s a large selection of all forms of programs vs a alternatively not happy quantity of a handful for Zune. Microsoft incorporates Options, particularly in just the realm of video games, nevertheless I’m not certain I would require toward bet upon the long run if this component is sizeable towards your self. The iPod is a a great deal superior determination in that scenario.